Presidents Cup Betting Preview: Overall Winner, Top Team Scorer, More

Over the last few decades, previewing the Presidents Cup has been akin to handicapping the Road Runner against Wile E. Coyote, as the outclassed International team continues to chase the Americans, only to have the entire plan explode in their faces.

The United States owns a 12-1-1 overall record in this event, has won nine straight and hasn’t lost outright in 26 years, which must feel like a lifetime for guys such as Adam Scott and Jason Day who have served on so many of these teams.

Can this be the year that trend actually reverses and the Internationals beat the United States? I’m not betting on it, but I will start my selections this week with a little reason for optimism within the home team. Let’s get right to those picks, including thoughts on individual player wagering, as well.

Day 1 Winner: International (+200)

Of the four most recent editions of this event, the festivities have started with a foursomes session on three occasions and a four-ball session just once.

Of those three foursomes sessions, the U.S. has won each time, compiling a dominant 11½-3½ overall record. In the one four-ball session, though, the Internationals raced out to a 4-1 lead at Royal Melbourne five years ago.

It should come as little surprise that International captain Mike Weir has elected to open with a four-ball (aka best-ball) session, with five such matches being contested on Thursday.

There are a few reasons to believe the home team will start hot.

The first is that aforementioned recent history. There’s something about the hyped-up underdogs being able to play aggressively that makes sense for this format, and the evidentiary proof already exists. In fact, in the past four editions of this event, the Internationals have only trailed in the four-ball format by a score of 18½-17½, which is easily the best they’ve done in any of the three.

The second is the Canadian crowds, which will undoubtedly be raucous and rowdy for the opening session. This might mean more to the three Great White North natives, but the other nine players should similarly experience a supportive bump. In a format where momentum often means everything, latching onto the early buzz could be massive for Weir’s team.

Lastly – and most importantly – is that the International team is comprised of a bunch of high-variance players. Granted, the U.S. has four of the top-five in birdie average this past PGA Tour season (Scottie Scheffler, Sam Burns, Xander Schauffele and Collin Morikawa), but half of the International side ranks inside the top-50 in that category, which doesn’t even include Si Woo Kim or Min Woo Lee, who are among the most high-variance guys around. In this format, a few bogeys don’t hurt as much as a few birdies help, so having some offensive firepower could lift the Internationals to an early lead once again.

Tournament Winner: USA (-250)

I’d rather take the better number in the three-way market than paying up to -350 with tie serving as no bet, but I don’t want to bury the lede here: I’m not playing this wager before Thursday’s opening session.

While I do believe the U.S. will once again be victorious, I think the International team (as noted above) can claim the opening session, which should help move this price closer to something near even-money, depending on the end-of-day score.

The idea here is to take a wait-and-see approach, only pulling the trigger on the American side when the price becomes more palatable.

That might happen halfway through Thursday’s opening session; it might not happen until early in Sunday singles. At some point, though, I do believe the Internationals will grab some momentum and this number will move. That’s the time to pounce on the favorites.

Tournament Winner – Handicap: International +3.5 (+100)

Now this is one wager I like betting before the competition gets underway.

If you’re trying to parse through the language here, allow me to help: This is essentially like getting 3.5 points as a spread in a football game. There are a total of 30 points available for the entire event, so this is a play on the U.S. scoring 16.5 points or less for its four-day total.

In each of the last two Presidents Cup events on International soil, the home team has covered this spread, losing 16-14 five years ago and 15½-14½ four years earlier.

At even-money, this feels like a smart way to have an investment in the ‘dog without expecting them to win outright.

Top U.S. Points Scorer: Xander Schauffele (+550)

First things first: It pains me to not go with the very obvious selection of Scottie Scheffler, who is the unsurprising favorite in this market at +450. Folks, the man was +325 to win a major championship against 155 other players just a few months ago and now – after an historic season – he’s more than a full point longer to just post a better record than 11 other teammates.

The main reason I’m fading him in this category is because Schauffele already has a built-in partner in Patrick Cantlay.

I’m writing this preview long before the first pairings will be announced, but I’m guessing U.S. captain Jim Furyk will team up Schauffele and Cantlay once again, while Scheffler gets his buddy in Sam Burns.

Two years ago, each of these partnerships played three matches together at Quail Hollow. Schauffele/Cantlay went 2-1-0, while Scheffler/Burns went 0-2-1. (At last year’s Ryder Cup, these teams went 0-2-0 and 0-1-0, respectively.) None of which means Scheffler and Burns can’t win together, but I’d rather invest in the proven commodity.

I also believe that a little history could repeat itself. The last time this event was contested at Royal Montreal, Weir was the Canadian native who asked for and received Tiger Woods as a Sunday opponent, ultimately defeating him in front of the home crowds. My best guess is that Scheffler will have a similar target on his back this week and Weir will enlist whichever Canadian player has fared the best over the first three days to face him.

Again, that doesn’t mean a guy like Corey Conners can replicate Weir’s singles session success, but I’d rather take the superstar who’s flying just slightly more under the radar.

Top International Points Scorer: Sungjae Im (+700)

I’d expect Tom Kim (+750) to be a very popular play in this market and I was thisclose to going with Min Woo Lee (+1000), whom I’ll write about below.

My selection here, though, is Im, who’s been as good as anyone for this team in the last two editions of this event.

In fact, in his two previous appearances, the South Korean has tied for leading International points scorer each time, posting a 3-1-1 record five years ago and a 2-2-1 record last time. On a shorter course which should favor precision over power, Im should once again be in his element, following a summer which saw him continually trending in the right direction.

He’s finished inside the top-12 in 11 of his last 15 worldwide starts, dating back to mid-April. During that time, there were only two occasions when he lost strokes off the tee, three when he lost strokes with his irons and two when he lost strokes overall. Some might contend that he doesn’t putt well enough to win important matches, but the truth of the matter is that he’s gained strokes with the flatstick in each of his last eight starts and 13 of his last 15 which were measured.

This is a nice number for Sungjae and if you’re of the mind that this will be another American domination, he might only need 2.5 points again to stake a claim to winning tickets in this market.

Top Rookie – USA: Sahith Theegala (+240)

During the season on my SiriusXM PGA Tour Radio show Hitting the Green, we’ll often call on one of our terrific walking reporters for a Monday recap after they’ve spent a week watching some of the world’s best players.

Not only do these guys provide some great analysis of what they just watched, but I love asking them which players looked like they’re on the verge of big things in the not-too-distant future. After all, nobody is watching more golf on-site than they are.

A few weeks ago, Tom Werme joined us after covering the Procore Championship and I asked him this question. Without skipping a beat, he replied that Theegala (who finished T-7 that week) is ready for a breakthrough performance at the Presidents Cup.

I didn’t need much arm-twisting on this one, but Werme’s analysis was enough to get me fully aboard the Sahith bandwagon, as I similarly believe he’ll thrive in his first professional team competition.

Entering this season, the only concern with Theegala’s game was a wayward driver, but he’s gotten that under control and shouldn’t be too worried about some narrow corridors at this one. With only Wyndham Clark (+175), Brian Harman (+275) and Russell Henley (+450) also in this market, there’s not too much competition from his teammates.

Top Wildcard – International: Min Woo Lee (+450)

Look, I was on record as saying that it wouldn’t have been the worst idea for Weir to go all-Canada with his captain’s picks, not only adding Conners, Mackenzie Hughes and Taylor Pendrith, but perhaps Adam Hadwin, Nick Taylor and even Adam Svensson, too. It’s going to mean more to these guys and this is less about rewarding the best players than finding those who can best help the team win.

All of which should make it sound very disingenuous when I bypass the three Canadians on this team in favor of a guy whose game might not even fit this golf course.

Lee is a very good driver of the golf ball who can rip a long iron like few others in the game today, but he ranked just 134th this season in strokes gained on approach shots and 113th in putting.

So, why am I taking him? Because intangible qualities often play a massive role in match-play success.

The Aussie is a guy who fashions himself a superstar, eating up his nickname The Chef as he’ll likely be followed around on the course by fans in full chef uniform, imploring the opponents to, “Let him cook!”

Among the first photos released from Monday at the course was one of Lee with his hat pulled back to reveal “INT” shaved into his head. While diehard consumers of the game shouldn’t be surprised, Lee might be the player that most casual fans “discover” this week. Much of that will come from his big personality, but he’s gotta show the game to back it up. I have every reason to believe he’ll thrive in this environment.