RBC Canadian Open Predictions: Conservative/Aggressive Plays for Every Type of Bettor

Great news for everyone who enjoys betting on golf: Scottie Scheffler isn’t in this week’s RBC Canadian Open field.

Nothing against the world’s No. 1-ranked player, of course, but he’s back to doing those 2024 things again, essentially leaving everyone else playing for second place after claiming his third title in his last four starts.

That could very well be the case again next week at Oakmont for the U.S. Open, where he’s already a 3/1 favorite as he’ll chase his fourth major championship.

The so-called Scottie Scheffler Conundrum is in full flight, as it should pain any of us to play an outright number this short, though it might hurt more to consider playing anyone else instead.

Before we get to the year’s third major, a solid field awaits up north, with two-time champion Rory McIlroy returning as the favorite, plus Ludvig Aberg, Corey Conners, Shane Lowry, Sam Burns, defending champion Robert MacIntyre and Luke Clanton in his professional debut.

The names are familiar, but the venue isn’t, as TPC Toronto at Osprey Valley will play host for the first time – and there are hints it could stand its ground sandwiched between Muirfield Village and Oakmont.

Playing as a 7,389-yard par-70, the course opens with one par-5 and ends with the other, while in between there are four beefy par-4s of at least 500 yards, including both the 16th and 17th holes, while the par-3s range from 144 to 237.

I’ve observed many times that when a PGA Tour event comes to a new location for the first time, those who set up the golf course often err on the side of caution, making it more playable than demanding, but I’m not so sure that will be the case this week. At first blush, it’s going to require a repetitive driver performance and exquisite iron game – especially with the long- and mid-irons – in order to find success at this one.

With some of those names listed above perhaps keeping one eye toward next week’s proceedings, I’m willing to attack the mid-tier on the odds board with some players who fit the profile, beginning with a couple of outright plays from slightly under the radar.

RBC Canadian Open Outright Winner Picks

Conservative: Thorbjorn Olesen (+5000)

My initial instinct is that an unfamiliar course should level the playing field. With the U.S. Open lurking, many of those top players might only be looking to find some form, rather than grinding over how to succeed here. And yet, I still want to target brawny tee-to-green ball-strikers, which is unironically most of those top players I’m avoiding. All of which led me down a path to Olesen, who’s been much better this year than you probably realize. The results have been fine, with a pair of top-10s (in San Antonio and Myrtle Beach) also serving as his lone top-25s in 10 starts on the PGA Tour. It’s the stats, though, which have been so appealing from the 35-year-old. He ranks 13th in total strokes gained – ahead of players such as Keegan Bradley, Hideki Matsuyama, Ben Griffin and Jordan Spieth – which is the greatest barometer of actual performance that we have. This includes ranks of 29th off the tee, 24th on approach, 55th around the greens and 81st putting, all while easily ranking in the top-half in driving distance at 302.9.

While he hasn’t won in 88 career PGA Tour starts – many of those in co-sanctioned events – he does have eight career DP World Tour victories, including in each of the last three seasons, so he knows how to close out a title contention. All the signs are pointing toward another big week coming soon and this feels like the appropriate time to back him. 

Aggressive: Chris Gotterup (+6600)

Continuing the theme of Guys Playing Better Than You Realize, Gotterup has really found something recently, posting results of 28th or better in each of his last five starts and seven of his last 10. As usual, he’s been doing a lot of damage with the driver and while the iron game remains a work in progress, the fact that he’s posted some strong results without attacking greens on his approach shots suggests that there’s plenty of room for improvement, both statistically and on the leaderboard. This is a week when I’ll play multiple outrights from the mid-tier, including some of the names you’ll see listed below, but Gotterup got the write-up here, due to what I believe is a big-time upside.

RBC Canadian Open Top-5 Picks

Conservative: Sam Burns (+500)

Professional golfers often preach that they’re striving for consistency, but what Burns has done recently from an analytical standpoint is on another level. Over the past few months, he’s almost always just slightly better than field average off the tee, slightly below field average with his irons, right at field average with his wedge play and through the roof with his flatstick. The result is that he’s been top-30 in five straight, including a T-12 last week.

The reality is that while the signature events help the rich become much richer, Burns is a great example of being a victim of circumstance. By that, I mean he’s a player who will qualify for every one of the elite-field events, meaning he’s playing most of his golf against the very best players, leaving less chance for a serious contention. In fact, his last six starts include two majors and three signatures. In the only “other” event, he finished T-5 at the CJ Cup Byron Nelson. This one should serve as a nice confidence-builder, if not an opportunity for Burns to contend once again without all of the other elites in this field. 

Aggressive: Kurt Kitayama (+900)

Earlier this season, Kitayama was a statistical darling – the type of player who guys like me want to back in the betting markets, because he appeared ready to pop. When everyone notices that, though, the odds tend to shrink and the result was that too many people were betting Kitayama at prices that were too short and he failed to live up to expectations, posting exactly zero top-30 finishes in his first 11 starts of the year. As the world has jumped ship like he’s the Titanic, Kitayama has quietly posted a T-5 and T-22 among his last three starts. As long as his number remains at a reasonable level, he’s a player I still like to target as a ceiling play, especially in situations such as this one.

RBC Canadian Open Top-10 Picks

Conservative: Rasmus Hojgaard (+550) and Nicolai Hojgaard (+650)

Over the last half-decade, the Hojgaard twins have essentially taken turns as to which one is playing better and therefore more appealing to bettors. Rasmus has five wins on the DP World Tour and is ranked 64th in the OWGR, but owns zero top-30s in majors. Nicolai has just three Euro wins and is 98th in the world, but owns a better record in majors and played on the Ryder Cup team two years ago. Despite these differences, though, one of my favorite stats this season is just how identical the twins are in their ball-striking.

For average club head speed, Rasmus ranks seventh at 124.13 mph, while Nicolai is eighth at 124.12 mph. For ball speed, though, Nicolai is fourth at 187.47, while Rasmus lags behind in fifth at 187.22. Here’s hoping they have a season-long bet internally on which twin winds up on top. As for our bets, you just know that if you play Rasmus, it’ll be Nicolai who contends and if you play Nicolai, it’ll be Rasmus who contends, so might as well just take ‘em both. 

Aggressive: Johnny Keefer (+600)

Ah, it took a little while, but we’ve finally gotten to my most anticipated bet of the week. I’m planning to ladder Keefer, starting with a top-40 prop and moving up to top-20, top-10 and perhaps even more aggressive. A product of Baylor University, he flew through PGA Tour Americas last year and has been one of the best on the Korn Ferry circuit this year, with a win and four other top-six finishes. He’s played so well, in fact, that he’s jumped all the way to 83rd in the world ranking, ahead of not just struggling stars such as Will Zalatoris and Max Homa, but PGA Tour stalwarts like Keith Mitchell, Taylor Moore, Gary Woodland and Chris Kirk.

That might say more about the imbalance for KFT points in the OWGR algorithm than anything else, but it does tell us that Keefer is an emerging star. Playing with absolutely nothing to lose and plenty to gain this week, I will be all-in on my Keefer investments for this one.

RBC Canadian Open Top-20 Picks

Conservative: Corey Conners (-125) and Taylor Pendrith (+125)

On weeks where I go a little deeper down the board for outrights and top finishing position plays, I prefer to make my lower finishing position plays a little extra conservative as a hedge on the ceiling plays. Playing two of the best Canadian players at short numbers for top-20s might be pushing that notion, but I don’t mind backing a couple of guys with high floors who are going to be motivated to join Nick Taylor as winners of their national championship.

Aggressive: Ryo Hisatsune (+300)

As a relatively shorter hitter – at least in comparison to some of the bombers listed in this preview – the 22-year-old Hisatsune might not totally fit the profile for this course, but he’s simply too good to ignore and he’s played some solid golf already this year on longer tracks. As far as “aggressive” selections go, this one is extremely conservative, but with six top-20s in his last 11 starts, I couldn’t pass on him here.

RBC Canadian Open Top-40 Picks

Conservative: Cameron Young (market not yet available)

Perhaps it’s an indignity that we’re speaking about Young for a mere top-40 selection, but it should be a welcome sign that we’re speaking about him at all, considering his early-season results. He’s finished outside the top-40 in 11 of 15 starts this year, but has shown a little form recently, finishing T-7 at the Truist Championship and T-25 at last week’s Memorial Tournament, where he gained strokes in every major category.

Aggressive: Karl Vilips (market not yet available)

Following a young player’s first victory, it often takes time before he shows some form again. That was the case with Vilips, who won the Puerto Rico Open, then MC’d in his next three starts. He was T-11 in his most recent appearance at the Charles Schwab, which should be a strong sign he’s ready to play better golf, as Colonial isn’t necessarily a venue which should suit his game.

RBC Canadian Open First-Round Leader Picks

Conservative: Keith Mitchell (+5000)

Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me. Fool me three times, I’ll start blindly betting you. Mitchell has held the first-round lead in three of his last seven starts (and been second in two others). I usually enjoy burning my money on him with outright tickets, but the single-round investment makes way too much sense, especially on a course which should require high-level driver prowess, which is his specialty. Let’s bank on Thursday Scottie one more time.

Aggressive: Isaiah Salinda (+10000)

When it comes to longshot FRL plays, I need some upside and Salinda has shown that, especially in opening rounds. He’s broken 70 in seven of 11 Thursday rounds this year and his R1 scoring average of 69.36 isn’t just a half-stroke better than his scoring average in any other round, it ranks 23rd on the PGA Tour this season.