RBC Canadian Open Predictions: Conservative/Aggressive Plays for Every Type of Bettor

Even if Nick Taylor’s eagle putt to close out last year’s RBC Canadian Open playoff wasn’t, “The Putt Heard ‘Round the World,” it was at least, “The Putt Heard ‘Round the Northern Hemisphere” – and even if you somehow can’t recall one of the most raucous PGA Tour celebrations in years, you undoubtedly remember Taylor’s buddy Adam Hadwin trying to join it before getting decked by a member of the security team.

In many ways, that edition of one of the PGA Tour’s longest-running tournaments was perhaps the most entertaining event of the entire season, as Taylor holed a 72-foot putt on the fourth extra hole to defeat Tommy Fleetwood.

This week, the tourney will return to Hamilton Golf and Country Club, which has previously hosted the national championship six times but only once in the past decade.

As if that alone doesn’t limit our education on this venue, the course received a makeover in the form of a restoration/renovation in recent years, as it will play more than 100 yards longer than it did five years ago.

All of those signs point to recent form and pure number-hunting as my golf betting triggers this week, starting with a player who’s proven he can find his way to a trophy. 

RBC Canadian Open Outright Picks

Conservative: Sam Burns (+2800)

Though he’s fresh off an MC in his last start at the PGA Championship two weeks ago, Burns ranked 10th at Valhalla in the approach game, only punching his ticket home with a terrible performance on the greens. Even though his best putting usually happens on Bermuda surfaces, I’m willing to take a chance that he’ll get things turned on the bentgrass at Hamilton.

This is as much a play on the win equity and value as form, though, considering the five-time champion owns a longer outright price than zero-time PGA Tour winners Tommy Fleetwood, Alex Noren and Cameron Young. Not that any of those three can’t finally break through this week – they’re each certainly worthy of consideration – but during a week with variables such as a top-heavy field and a venue that has rarely hosted the current crop of players, I’d rather take my chances with a guy who’s proven he can close at this level.

Aggressive: Seamus Power (+6600)

Props to Alejandro Tosti for WDing from this tournament before I went through the embarrassment of posting a player for an outright selection who didn’t eventually tee it up. I still like the triple-digit range, however – and I’ll be posting a piece this week listing my five fave longshots from way downtown. 

Power isn’t exactly a half-court heave, to complete the analogy, but like Burns, he’s a player who offers plenty of value at his current price. Two years ago, the Irishman finished top-25 in half of his PGA Tour starts and top-10 in five of ‘em, before adding a second career win last season. 

More recently, he was T-12 at the RBC Heritage and T-16 at the Wells Fargo Championship, offering some range on a couple of disparate types of tracks. If the putter gets hot – and that’s a big if, as he’s only bettered the field average in seven of 13 starts this year – he could certainly be in the mix at this one. 

RBC Canadian Open Top-5 Picks

Conservative: Rory McIlroy (-120)

The last time this event was contested at Hamilton, it was McIlroy who dominated, winning by seven strokes. It’s a little more difficult to figure out exactly where he’s at, both physically and emotionally, right now, after wins at the Zurich Classic and Wells Fargo Championship were followed by a somewhat lackluster T-12 at the PGA Championship. 

Even so, as a massive favorite in the outright market (+400), I’m going to invoke my recent Scottie Scheffler suggestion here – which is to say, I don’t love him to win at such a short number, but I don’t want to fade him, either, considering even his B-game could keep him in contention. All of that suggests a very conservative top-five play. And while I generally object to the phrase “backdoor top-five,” it certainly wouldn’t be shocking to see him turn a slow start into a strong finish here.

Aggressive: Davis Thompson (+800)

A former No. 1-ranked amateur, Thompson is really coming into his own on the PGA Tour recently. Like Tway, he owns four top-25s in his last five starts, though he’s done it more with tee-to-green performance than short game. 

His first victory might only be a matter of when, not if, at this point, as he tries to follow another much-heralded Davis into the winner’s circle. It would hardly be a shock to see him inside the top-five. 

RBC Canadian Open Top-10 Picks

Conservative: Corey Conners (+225)

What? Did you really think I’d get through an entire RBC Canadian Open preview without mentioning a single Canadian? One year after I’d offered up Taylor as an outright selection, I’m reluctant to insist the countrymen will go back-to-back, but I’ll play a top-10 on a guy who’s yet to post one this year. That’s right – Conners has an 18th-place finish, two 13th-place results and even an 11th, but somehow nothing inside the top-10. 

That’s severely disappointing for one of the game’s best ball-strikers, who had nine such finishes over the past two seasons. To say he’s due is an understatement. He opened his career at his national championship with five MCs and an 80th-place finish but has gone sixth and 20th in the past two years.

Aggressive: Kevin Tway (+800)

I mentioned earlier that I’ll be writing on my favorite triple-digit longshots for this event and tops on this list is a trending Tway, which isn’t a name that’s graced one of my weekly previews in an awfully long time. The reason that’s changing now is a recent run showing top-25s in four of his last five starts, including the two-man Zurich Classic.

The wedges and putter have done most of the damage during this run, but at 100/1, I’m willing to take a shot on his confidence enjoying a massive uptick, as well as a top-10 in the finishing position market. Tway’s first and only PGA Tour victory came a half-dozen years ago, and his game has often fallen on hard times since then, but he’s always had the talent to play at this level. 

This feels like a smart week to chase some guys outside the top tier and Tway is one who should be a part of that staking plan, even if it’s a small part. 

RBC Canadian Open Top-20 Picks

Conservative: Maverick McNealy (+150)

Going back to the well on one of my favorite long-term plays, McNealy has proven to have a high floor, especially in events without the strongest fields. I listed him for this identical wager last week when a final-round 66 carried him to a share of 17th place. 

Well, there’s nothing sweeter than a repeater.

Aggressive: Mac Meissner (+275)

Depending on your definition of “unheralded,” Meissner might’ve owned the honor of being the most unheralded player on the PGA Tour — at least entering last week when he finished in a share of fifth place. I’m still not sure even the most rabid of golf fans could pick him out of a lineup, let alone know that he’s a 25-year-old rookie who played his college golf at SMU, but the results now include three top-20s in his last five starts, so it’s about time to get him on your radar.

RBC Canadian Open First-Round Leader Picks

Conservative: Alex Noren (+3300)

Much like the McNealy selection, there are specific plays which appear in my weekly previews more often than others, and Noren for a FRL is absolutely one of them. As noted previously, he’s playing perhaps the best golf of his life right now, finishing top-25 in his last eight starts. 

If you don’t like the 25/1 outright number, though – he makes a ton of sense in the FRL market, having posted scores of 64-67-67 in his last three Thursday rounds while ranking second to only Scottie Scheffler in Round 1 scoring average. If you like him for a four-round investment, which you should, make sure to back it up with a single-round play, as well.

Aggressive: Gary Woodland (+10000)

After a year in which he suffered through a brain tumor and subsequent surgery, Woodland is slowly starting to play like his old self again. It will be a special day when he finally returns to the winner’s circle, but success for now will continue coming in smaller steps. For a guy who makes a lot of birdies and has been putting well, I don’t mind him for a longshot FRL play.