Scottie Scheffler Remains Masters Favorite, But That Could Still Change

If we only looked at tournament history, it would be easy to understand why Scottie Scheffler remains the Masters Tournament betting favorite over Rory McIlroy.

Scheffler has won the green jacket on two of the last three occasions, of course, while McIlroy continues to chase his personal white whale, currently standing at 0-for-16 in his attempts at Augusta National Golf Club.

If we only looked at recent performance, however, it might feel like the wrong player is currently atop the odds board.

With victories at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am and The Players Championship, McIlroy is the only player with multiple PGA Tour titles this season, while Scheffler has uncharacteristically gone five starts without one.

Two weeks before the year’s first major championship, BetMGM outright pricing shows Scheffler with the shortest odds in the Masters field at +500, followed by McIlroy at +650.

That could all change, though.

Each will make one final tune-up this week in advance of the Masters, competing at the Texas Children’s Houston Open, where much like the major, Scheffler owns the shortest odds.

Last year, he finished in a share of second place at this tournament, missing a five-foot birdie putt on the final hole that would’ve forced a playoff with Stephan Jaeger.

McIlroy will be making his fifth career start at this event, but first in over a decade and first since the tournament has found a new home at Memorial Park GC.

Another strong performance could leave those prices tightening up at the top as we move closer to Masters week.

“I think a strong showing from [McIlroy] this week or an indifferent performance from Scheffler will see them swap places in the outright for the Masters,” said BetMGM trader Karl Schalm. “McIlroy has stated that a Masters win to complete the Career Slam is one of his remaining goals in the game and with a couple of wins in his last four on the PGA Tour, he seems to have found the consistency that has maybe been lacking previously.”

Despite failing to claim a Masters title, it’s not as if McIlroy has completely struggled at Augusta.

He famously – or perhaps, infamously – led the tournament going into Sunday’s back-nine in 2011, just his third time playing the event, before posting an inward 43 which led to a T-15 result. He’s since had seven top-10s, including a runner-up in 2022, but followed with a missed cut in 2023 and a share of 22nd place last year.

While there remains plenty of scar tissue, there’s also plenty of reason to believe McIlroy can vanquish the ghosts and finally claim a green jacket. He currently tops the PGA Tour in SG: Total and also leads in SG: Off the Tee, while ranking 16th in approach and 10th in putting.

Scheffler, meanwhile, followed a nine-win season by undergoing offseason hand surgery after a Christmas dinner mishap. Since his delayed return, he owns top-25 results in all five starts, but only a single top-five and has shown outward frustration in recent appearances.

A strong performance in Houston this week – anything better than McIlroy, really – should leave Scheffler as the field favorite, just as he’s been for every tournament he’s played since the beginning of last year.

If he falters again, though, and if McIlroy wins or contends or even simply shows much better form than his counterpart, don’t be surprised to see those Masters odds much tighter entering April, with maybe even a change at the top of the board.