Shriners Children’s Open Predictions: Conservative/Aggressive Plays for Every Type of Bettor

Technically, this week’s PGA Tour event is called the Shriners Children’s Open and it’s hosted at TPC Summerlin, but really only two words are necessary to properly describe this one. 

Vegas, baby.

The fall portion of the schedule heads to Sin City for a tournament that has been on the calendar since 1983. Winners have included Greg Norman, Paul Azinger, Jim Furyk, and Tiger Woods, who claimed his first of 82 official victories here.

At 7,255 on the card, this par-71 should have plenty of similarities in playing style to last week’s Black Desert Championship, so chasing a few of those contenders might be a smart formula for this one.

Speaking of which, let’s start the golf betting selections with a guy who didn’t quite contend last week, but certainly had the numbers to get our attention.

Shriners Children’s Open Outright Picks

Conservative: Kurt Kitayama (+2800)

There are times when trying to select a favorite outright entering a PGA Tour event becomes a task of needle-in-the-haystack proportions as we sift around with our eyes closed trying to feel any slight jab of a sensation. Then there are times when a name jumps off the page like it’s in a bigger, bolder font that can’t be ignored. Consider this week to be the latter. None of which means, of course, that Kitayama will win this tournament; trust me, I’ve had plenty of obvious outright selections fail to be anywhere near the top of the leaderboard come Sunday afternoon. It does give us a little more confidence, however – and I feel cautiously confident about this one.

A product of UNLV who still lives in the Las Vegas area, Kitayama ranks 13th on the PGA Tour in strokes gained on approach shots this season, which is a predictive statistic for any host course, but especially TPC Summerlin, where ball-strikers such as Tom Kim and Patrick Cantlay have flourished over the years. His 25th-place finish last week should be encouraging, as it was his first competitive event in three months, but the performance outweighed the result, with a second-place rank in strokes gained from tee to green that was only foiled by a below-average experience on the greens.

There’s a little trepidation this week in the fact that Kitayama enters his hometown event with an 0-for-3 record in trying to make the cut, but each of those appearances featured an opening-round score in the 70s followed by a second-round score in the 60s, which tells us success on this venue is hardly an insurmountable proposition.

Aggressive: Patrick Fishburn (+6000)

Those who backed Fishburn last week might incur a little PTSD just seeing his name here, considering all the stars had seemed to be aligned. He’d finished top-six in three of his previous five starts and was riding a heater heading into the first tourney held in his home state in more than 60 years. I spoke with him on my SiriusXM PGA Tour Radio show “Hitting the Green” beforehand and to suggest he was excited about the event would be an understatement. 

It all culminated in a missed cut, during which he didn’t play horribly, but didn’t quite play well enough to make the weekend rounds. Even so, he’s not far removed from playing very good golf and we’ve received a nice discount in his price following that result. If he needed any extra motivation, seeing fellow late-bloomer Matt McCarty find success shouldn’t hurt. 

Shriners Children’s Open Top-5 Picks

Conservative: Adam Hadwin (+650) and Cam Davis (+650)

I’m going to pair up Hadwin and Davis here, as the Canadian and Aussie actually share a few commonalities. First, they each contended at this event last year – Hadwin finished runner-up; Davis was T-7. As much as just about any event on the annual schedule, this one really pushes the horse-for-the-course narrative. Tom Kim has won each of the last two editions of this tournament, Patrick Cantlay once followed a victory with second-place finishes in the next two years, then another just a few years later and Matthew Wolff similarly posted back-to-back seconds.

Play well here once and a player is likely to play well here again. The other similarity is that each was likely on the short list of those considered for the International team prior to the recent Presidents Cup, but didn’t get the call. According to inside reports, Davis seemed a bit more perturbed at his omission than Hadwin, however each should be able to use it as fuel for this one and beyond. I’d be surprised if at least one of these guys wasn’t in serious contention on the back-nine this coming Sunday.

Aggressive: Jacob Bridgeman (+1400)

If you’re still clinging to the ol’ “drive for show, putt for dough” axiom, ask yourself this question: Would you rather be Scottie Scheffler or Denny McCarthy? The former is the world’s best ball-striker and happens to also be the reigning Masters champion, gold medalist and FedEx Cup winner, while the latter is the world’s best putter who’s still searching for his first PGA Tour victory. 

Targeting players who tend to excel on the greens instead of getting to them is often a recipe in futility, but I’m going in that direction with this play anyway. A rookie on the PGA Tour, Bridgeman has posted top-20s in four of his last six starts, doing much of his damage with the flatstick. If there’s a time to back a great putter, it’s at a tournament where winners have broken the 20-under barrier on each of the last half-dozen occasions. Here’s hoping Bridgeman’s putter remains hot enough to go similarly low this week. 

Shriners Children’s Open Top-10 Picks

Conservative: Eric Cole (+300)

You won’t find too many plays in my weekly previews as conservative as this one. Cole enters the week with odds tied for the seventh-shortest in this field, and while he’s posted just one top-10 in his last five starts and three of his last nine, he remains a guy I want to target during this portion of the schedule, when he’s clearly amongst the bigger talents competing. 

He was my favorite play on the board two weeks ago at the Sanderson Farms Championship and though a T-16 didn’t cash any outright tickets, it did continue to give us some optimism that greater success isn’t too far away. 

Aggressive: Chan Kim (+450)

As someone who’s a massive fan of Kim’s game, I’ll admit that I believe he’s been terribly overvalued during these fall events so far, his 50/1 outright number equal to that of Andrew Putnam, Kevin Yu, Adam Svensson and Jhonattan Vegas, each of whom has already won at his level. Finishes of T-26, T-33 and T-46 in his last three haven’t deterred the traders from keeping him at a shorter number, but there’s always good reason for that. 

Just like a football spread where it feels like they’re begging you to take one side and the other cashes, this price should throw some bettors off the scent, which in a twisted-logic way should only cause us to like it even more.

Shriners Children’s Open First-Round Leader Bets

Conservative: Daniel Berger (+6600)

I’ve been very careful about dipping a toe into the Berger waters recently, which might still be more mirage than oasis. There aren’t a whole lot of four-time PGA Tour winners in these fall fields, let alone those who also played on the Ryder and Presidents Cup teams and are trading at his 66/1 outright price, but it’s been a long battle for Berger just to get back to the point of relevance once again. 

Seemingly healthy again, he finished the regular season with four MCs and a WD in his final six starts, but a solo seventh at the Sanderson Farms and T-35 at the Black Desert should at least have us thinking about him moving forward. I’m still a bit reluctant to back him for four-round investments, but multiple rounds of 65 in each of those last two starts should give us reason for optimism that he can go low this week – hopefully on Thursday for our FRL plays.

Aggressive: Martin Laird (+10000)

At this point in his career, there’s nothing too exciting about Laird’s game. The 41-year-old is good enough to hang onto a PGA Tour card each year, but rarely seriously threatens a leaderboard. What we do know about him, though, is that much of his success has come on desert courses – and more to the point, on this particular desert course, where he’s won twice, claiming multi-player playoffs in both 2009 and 2020. I don’t mind him for top-20s or even a top-10, but I like the idea of the wily veteran using some tricks up his sleeve to jump out to a nice start here once again.