Texas Children’s Houston Open 2024: Predictions, Best Bets, Sleepers

Following several weeks in Florida, the PGA Tour will head to Texas for two weeks, beginning with the Texas Children’s Houston Open from Memorial Park, March 28-31.

Typically a fall event, it will move to the spring for this year and get a new sponsor in Texas Children’s.

Memorial Park will host the tournament for the fourth year, where the winning score the past three editions has been 16-under, 10-under and 13-under. It is not a complete birdie fest like some other PGA Tour courses. 

The course plays to 7,412 yards as a par-71, including three par-5s and five par-3s. Half of the par-4s are over 490 yards, so solid ball striking and long-iron play will be important this week. 

With tight runoffs around the greens, creativity will also be needed. Lastly, the Texas wind is unpredictable, but it can certainly play a factor when it picks up. This will be something to watch this week.

Tony Finau won the event the last time it was played in November of 2022. Meanwhile, Scottie Scheffler has the best odds to win this week at +275, coming off two straight PGA Tour signature event wins – the Arnold Palmer Invitational and Players Championship.

When it comes to metrics this week, I will be looking at players who perform well in: Strokes Gained: Approach, Bogey Avoidance, Strokes Gained: Total (difficult scoring conditions), Scrambling Gained, Strokes Gained: Around the Green and Proximity 200+ yards.

Below are some players to target, followed by my PGA Tour betting card for the week:

*All odds as of March 26.

Texas Children’s Houston Open Prediction

Scheffler is expected to win the Valspar Championship with a 26.67% implied probability, according to betting markets. Wyndham Clark is next at 7.69%.

Implied probability is the overall chance of a potential outcome in relation to the odds.

Texas Children’s Houston Open Best Bets

Scottie Scheffler +275 Odds to Win

It is very rare for a player to have these short odds at a PGA Tour event. Jon Rahm is the closest, as he was +290 for the 2023 Mexico Open at Vidanta. As mentioned, he’s coming off two straight wins and has had success at Memorial Park, including setting the course record (62) on the way to a T-2 finish in 2022.

Wyndham Clark +1200 Odds to Win

If not for Scheffler, Clark would have two wins in his last two events, as he’s finished runner-up to Scheffler in both of his wins. Clark also won the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, so he’s playing some exceptional golf and should have success at this course, especially if the wind picks up.

Texas Children’s Houston Open Sleeper Picks

Tom Hoge +4500 Odds to Win

Hoge is playing some strong golf this year, including a pair of top 10s with five top 20s. This will be his second appearance at Memorial Park, but he lives in Texas, so is used to the conditions, especially the wind.

Andrew Novak +8000 Odds to Win

Although this will be his tournament debut, Novak is having a very solid season. In eight events, he has three top 10s and four top 25s. This feels like pretty solid value, given how well he’s playing.

Texas Children’s Houston Open Betting Card & Other Predictions

• Wyndham Clark Outright Win +1200
• Will Zalatoris Outright Win +1800
• Will Zalatoris Top-20 Finish  +100
• Alex Noren Top-20 Finish +150

I kept my card very small this week, relying on my Fantasy National model and course history, but mostly gut-feel.

Scheffler’s number is too short to even go near, so I went with the two next closest players in Clark and Zalatoris.

Noren ranks high in my model and finished T-4 here in 2022.

Here is the top 10 of my Fantasy National model:

1. Scottie Scheffler
2. Wyndham Clark
3. Tom Hoge
4. Andrew Novak
5. Jake Knapp
6. Mackenzie Hughes
7. Tony Finau
8. Alex Noren
9. Will Zalatoris
10. Henrik Norlander