The Memorial 2025: Predictions, Best Bets

It is another big week on the PGA Tour, with the Memorial from Muirfield Village in Dublin, Ohio. 

Since it is a PGA Tour signature event, virtually all of the best PGA Tour players are in the field. Rory McIlroy is not, though, as he is opting to play in the RBC Canadian Open next week ahead of the U.S. Open.

Scottie Scheffler is a massive favorite, as he is +300 to win this week.

Designed by Jack Nicklaus, Muirfield Village typically plays similar to most major championship venues, as conditions are usually firm and fast, and it’s about controlling approach shots to hold the greens. 

At over 7,500 yards, it is one of the longer courses on the PGA Tour, so distance off the tee does help. But more so, it is about finding fairways to make approaches easier. 

This week, I will be prioritizing a number of metrics, including Strokes Gained: Approach, Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee, Driving Distance, Par-5 Scoring, Par 4: 450-500 yards, Proximity: 175+ yards, Good Drives Gained, Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green, Scrambling Gained, Bogey Avoidance and Strokes Gained: Putting.

*Odds as of May 27

The Memorial Prediction

Scottie Scheffler is predicted to win the Memorial with a 25% implied probability, according to betting markets. Collin Morikawa, Justin Thomas, Patrick Cantlay and Xander Schauffele are next at 5.88%.

Implied probability is the overall chance of a potential outcome in relation to the odds.

The Memorial Best Bets

Scottie Scheffler Outright Winner (+300)

It just feels like this is going to be a Scottie week.

After winning back-to-back starts with The CJ Cup Byron Nelson and the PGA Championship, Scheffler finished T-4 at the Charles Schwab Challenge last week, and that was without his best stuff. That can likely be attributed to coming off his PGA Championship win.

Now, Scheffler has had a few days to reset and is coming to a course where he’s the defending champion and has two other career top-3 finishes.

Scheffler checks the boxes for a number of key metrics, ranking No. 1 in a bunch of them. 

With that being said, the number isn’t great, so an option could be waiting for a live betting opportunity, especially if he gets off to a slow start.

Muirfield Village sets up too well for Scheffler’s game for him not to be in the mix Sunday afternoon.

Xander Schauffele Top-10 Finish (+150)

Coming off a disappointing T-28 finish at the PGA Championship, Schauffele is coming to a place where he’s had tremendous success over the years. In his last seven appearances here, he’s finished T-18 or better six times and in the top 25 all seven times. 

Schauffele has had great success at majors during his career, and this is a major-championship setup. 

While not the greatest season by his standards, Schauffele does have four T-18 or better finishes in four of his last five starts, including a T-8 at the Masters.