The Memorial Predictions: Conservative/Aggressive Plays for Every Type of Bettor

So far during this PGA Tour season, we’ve had a signature event directly before a major championship and it felt a little too something, and we’ve had a signature event directly after a major and that felt a little too something else, but as Goldilocks might say about this week’s Memorial Tournament, this one feels just right.

Of course, that’s for those of us watching these events unfold, as it strikes what feels like the proper balance to give the schedule a nice rhythm and cadence between the biggest ones.

For the competitors, though, this represents another stern test amongst a bevy of others.

Not that there’s a better time to schedule the festivities at Muirfield Village, but with Quail Hollow still lingering in the rearview mirror and Oakmont quickly approaching, this is the time when fatigue can set in for even the game’s brightest stars.

I’ll readily admit that this could very well be yet another Scottie Scheffler coronation, since tee-to-green ball-striking is so vital here, however if it’s not, this might be the week where those hungriest to claim a long-awaited victory could have the upper hand.

That doesn’t mean I believe the eventual champion will come out of nowhere. In a season where Russell Henley and Sepp Straka have already posted signature wins, I like the idea of targeting those who are not only trending with the driver and irons, but also have some specific motivation to similarly add their names to this list.

That said, I’ll kick off the selections with a player who’s already won this year, already won this tournament and has perhaps been trying to throw us off the scent in recent weeks.

The Memorial Outright Winner Picks

Conservative: Hideki Matsuyama (+3500)

For those who (rightly) believe that course history provides greater clues at this event than most others, selecting Scheffler at a sub-3/1 price is the easy way out, while Patrick Cantlay (+1600) and Viktor Hovland (+2800) should be popular ideas. (Strangely enough, six of the last 10 champions aren’t in the field, as Billy Horschel is injured, Bryson DeChambeau and Jon Rahm play for LIV Golf, and Jason Dufner, William McGirt and David Lingmerth all failed to qualify.)

That leaves Matsuyama, who won here in his 2014 debut and now has four top-10s in 11 career starts, including a share of eighth place last year. Now, there are plenty of reasons to dislike this play, too, a missed cut at the PGA Championship and T-36 at the Charles Schwab foremost among them. But if Hideki has shown us something over the years, it’s that he doesn’t need to pick up momentum in order to flourish, as best exemplified by his run of MC-42-30 directly before winning the Masters four years ago.

This is an advisement based partially on talent and partially on odds, as he’s twice the price of a guy like Cantlay, who’s won three fewer titles over the past three years. There’s not much value on this board, but this one fits.

Aggressive: Taylor Pendrith (+6000) and Davis Thompson (+9000)

Truth be told, I didn’t love the options for longshot outrights here, despite thinking the schedule placement should be ripe for a non-superstar to take this one. The options were either recommending a player who was only 5-10 points longer in the outright market than Matsuyama or bundling a couple of brawny bombers in the high double-digit area.

Pendrith proved what he can do on a long, beefy course just two weeks ago, finishing T-5 at Quail Hollow. He certainly fits the profile of a player who can succeed at Muirfield Village, even if he hasn’t shown it in his two starts so far. Same goes for Thompson, as I’ve essentially pushed all my chips into the middle of his table. This one feels like owning a stock which keeps tanking, so I’ve decided to buy more shares in hopes my initial thought wasn’t completely wrong. I’ve said that I believe he can challenge for a spot on the U.S. Ryder Cup team and while I’m slowly dying on that hill, as he’s posted just one top-10 this season, it should at least underscore what I think of his overall potential. 

The Memorial Top-5 Picks

Conservative: Corey Conners (+450)

There isn’t a player more overvalued in the outright market on a weekly basis than Conners. A two-time winner of the Valero Texas Open and nothing else on the PGA Tour, the Canadian’s ball-striking is fantastic and his skill-set should match up to everything we’re seeking at Muirfield Village this week. The problem, however, is that his 30/1 outright price is shorter than the likes of Viktor Hovland, Shane Lowry and Hideki Matsuyama, which just doesn’t make any sense to me, especially when considering he hasn’t finished better than 13th in a half-dozen career starts here.

I can’t in good conscience recommend Conners at this number, despite how much I like him, so I’ll play him for finishing position bets instead, as his tee-to-green game – which has shown positive strokes gained with both driver and irons over his past nine starts – should carry him onto this leaderboard. 

Aggressive: Maverick McNealy (+900)

Following a Memorial Tournament debut during which he shot 81-77 and was one of the few players to miss last year’s cut, I think McNealy’s greatest investment asset this week is as a leverage play where applicable, such as DFS tournament contests, OAD pools and other opportunities in which others will be scared off by that previous result. Early in his career, I frequently likened McNealy to Charles Howell III, which was no backhanded compliment. He almost instantly owned a high floor at this level, without often showing much of a ceiling.

Whether it’s something he’s wanted to change or has done without trying, he’s become an all-or-nothing sort of play, which might be maddening for those attempting to prognosticate, but reaps greater benefits for the player. To wit: In his last 10 starts, McNealy owns three top-three results… and nothing else inside the top-30. All of that means we should like him better as a top-five play than top-20, just hoping he maximizes his potential while we have a little piece of it. 

The Memorial Top-10 Picks

Conservative: Shane Lowry (+250)

It’s never been more obvious than in his last two starts that when Lowry is not just motivated, but interested in the golf course and of the proper mindset, he can play world-class golf – and when none of those things are true, he simply doesn’t. At Philly Cricket Club, which surely grabbed his attention, Lowry finished runner-up. The next week at Quail Hollow, which isn’t exactly his favorite, he missed the cut. There are hints that Lowry enjoys Muirfield Village, often speaking about how keeping it in the fairways is paramount to his personal success, though he’s posted just one top-10 in eight starts. He can double that total this week, as long as those recurring frustrations don’t set in once again.

Aggressive: Tony Finau (+300)

I’ve long believed that Finau is a top-five talent in the world and while it’s impossible to argue that he belongs anywhere near the Scheffler/McIlroy/Schauffele/DeChambeau/Rahm quintet right now, the point remains: He’s probably a lot better than he shows us on a regular basis. I won’t go as far as suggesting the six-time winner is an underachiever, I’ll just leave it with the idea that I don’t think he’s played his best golf yet.

That’s hardly an original thought, considering his 13 starts this year include a grand total of one top-10 so far, which really hammers home the original notion. He does, though, have five top-20s, including each of his last two starts, and has been 13th or better in five of eight attempts at Muirfield Village. 

The Memorial Top-20 Picks

Conservative: Si Woo Kim (+105)

Here’s the secret sauce behind coming up with a sneaky top-20 selection: First, you look at his past tournament history, which shows a record of 18-9-13-4-15 over the last five years. Next, you check out recent results and see four top-20s in his last six events. And then – voila! – you recommend him for a top-20 play.

The reality is, this placement might be overly conservative for Si Woo, who is playing some excellent golf right now and fits the exact profile I mentioned in the intro – a player listed well below the favorites who wouldn’t be a shock if he’s able to beat all of them. The only issue is that I don’t love the +3300 price, or else you would’ve seen his name much higher on this page. 

Aggressive: Matt Fitzpatrick (+138)

I’m not so sure that I’m ready to insist Fitzpatrick is “back,” but I do believe he’s starting to trend in that direction again. We’ve seen a small trend of players needing to hit rock-bottom this year before playing well again and the former U.S. Open champion at least fits that pattern, posting his first top-20 since last August at the PGA Championship, where he was T-8. The iron play has been solid for over a month now and his record at this one – three top-10s in six starts, including each of the last two years – suggests that his game is a nice fit for this course.

The Memorial First-Round Leader Picks

Conservative: Sam Burns (+4000)

Frequent readers of the weekly previews know that I prefer selecting excellent putters in the FRL market, hoping we can hit a day when a few mid-range putts find the cup and we can bank a little mid-60s kind of total. Readers should also know, though, that I like choosing players for FRLs who have shown something better than 71 on a specific course in 16 career rounds. That’s the case for Burns, who owns some decent results here, if not better-than-decent scores. Let’s just say this one is still being workshopped, but I’ll leave it right here as a potential option, even if I’m having trouble convincing myself, let alone the rest of you.

Aggressive: Andrew Novak (+5000)

It wouldn’t stand to reason that a player making his tourney debut would race out to a first-round lead, though perhaps not building up any scar tissue on this course might be better preparation than having played it many times over. After finishing T-11, Novak stuck around at Colonial to congratulate his Zurich Classic partner Ben Griffin on the victory, which can only serve as motivation for this week. Novak usually plays well in every round, but he’s been above his average in the openers, with a Thursday scoring average of 69.75 and scores of 70 or better in each of his last seven.