Travelers Championship Predictions: Conservative/Aggressive Plays for Every Type of Bettor

CROMWELL, Conn. — Professional golfers will often refer to their hometown event as a “fifth major” and I suppose that goes for others around the game, too.

I lived not too far from TPC River Highlands for a decade-and-a-half and I’m so excited to be back at a tournament that wholly deserves its meteoric rise in importance over the past few years.

This story has been told before, but it’s worth retelling this week. An event which started as the Insurance City Open in 1952 and was long known as the Greater Hartford Open — or GHO — was on life support nearly 20 years ago. Without a title sponsor, the 2006 edition was supposed to be the last, leaving some potential it could be salvaged as a PGA Tour Champions event instead.

At the 11th hour, though, Travelers swooped in and saved it. In the years since, it’s transformed from a fun little summertime tourney to one which attracted some top talent to a PGA Tour signature event which gets ‘em all to show up.

And sure, these things don’t happen without a massive investment from the sponsor, but this has always felt like a massive investment in the community, as well, serving as one of the biggest annual sporting events in the corridor between New York and Boston.

Anyway, it’s been fun to witness this transformation first-hand and while it might not be fruitful for every tournament to follow this blueprint, the people who preside over this one have at least proven that it’s possible to make such a leap.

Moving on to this week’s edition of the Travelers, I’ve been conflicted on the idea of signature events following major championships.

On the one hand, it’s a smart way for the PGA Tour to parlay the momentum of the previous week into another which should attract fans and ratings. On the other hand, you’re often not getting the best out of the most elite players, especially after the pressure cooker of a U.S. Open on a course like Oakmont.

As we dive into the selections, the Scottie Scheffler Conundrum is once again at play, as he feels too short to back at +275 outright, but he’s similarly tough to bet against, considering he’s the defending champion and coming off a top-10 in what seemed like only a B-/C+ performance.

Instead, I’ll go just a bit further down the board for my first play.

Travelers Championship Outright Winner Picks

Conservative: Collin Morikawa (+1600)

This is an admittedly low-confidence selection, born on the fact that a signature event with a shortened field should steer us toward the top tier, but Scheffler is too short and most others have too many faults. That leaves Morikawa, who’s been a fade for me since his caddie switch, but has too many qualities to overlook this week. In particular, I like targeting players after majors who weren’t quite in the mix, but started to show some potential. That plan led me directly to this two-time major champion, who led the field at Oakmont in final-round iron play while finishing T-23. Throw in a T-13 at TPC River Highlands last year and there are plenty of signs are pointing in his direction.

Aggressive: Daniel Berger (+5000)

There probably isn’t a player I’ve backed more this year — in varying markets — than Berger, whose career resurgence has suffered a recent stumble. At least one tweeter has noticed and reached out after a few missed cuts to ask, “We’re finally done betting Berger, right?” Not so fast, my friend. Even while I was betting him everywhere else, I had my eye on Berger for this tourney all along, at a place where he finished top-five the first two times he played it. Granted, that was a long time ago, a half-dozen years to be exact, but his time spent honing his game during the long New England summer days should again serve him well. I promise if the stumble continues we can stop betting him for a while, but don’t abandon ship before this one.

Travelers Championship Top-5 Picks

Conservative: Robert MacIntyre (+600)

On most occasions, I’d rather avoid players fresh off a major contention — especially at the U.S. Open, where the mental gymnastics needed could leave them still groggy a week later. I’ll make an exception for MacIntyre, though, who has a few things in his favor. Unlike Sam Burns or Adam Scott, he has fewer coulda-woulda-shouldas after last week, posting a final-round 68 to get into contention rather than something in the high-70s to fall out of it. He also tends to be a momentum player, his history suggesting that one strong result often leads to another. I’ll take a chance at that continuing on a course where he was T-16 last year.

Aggressive: Denny McCarthy (+1200)

When — and not if, because it’s going to happen — McCarthy finally claims his first PGA Tour victory, it might very well take place on a course such as this one. I’ve written in recent weeks about his propensity to play well on bigger ballparks, from Torrey Pines to Quail Hollow to Muirfield Village, but a place like TPC River Highlands should be his bread-and-butter, as precision is favored over accuracy and making a boatload of birdie putts is a definite possibility. I’m listing him for a top-five here, but I’ll also have an outright ticket at 100/1.

Travelers Championship Top-10 Picks

Conservative: Jordan Spieth (+320)

You remember the bunker hole-out and ensuing rake-toss and probably think Spieth always thrives at this event. The truth is, since that win in 2017, he’s played here five times and never again finished inside the top-40. So, why am I on him this week? Because I think it’s coming for Spieth. I’m not exactly sure what “it” might be — it might not be a major; it might not even be a win — but he’s on the verge of bigger and better things than he’s shown over the past few years. A top-10 this week would be another step in that direction.

Aggressive: Cameron Young (+320)

Two weeks ago, I listed Young for a top-40 at the RBC Canadian Open and that easily cashed. Last week, I picked him for a top-20 at the U.S. Open and that easily cashed, as well. I’ll continue working my way up that ladder as long as he continues showing some form. At another Northeast stop, this isn’t the place to jump off yet.

Travelers Championship Top-20 Picks

Conservative: Bud Cauley (+260)

If the four results of sixth or better haven’t gotten you interested in Cauley, then try this: He currently ranks 12th in total strokes gained, which is (as I always say) the greatest barometer of performance that we have. In fact, he ranks top-50 off the tee, on approach and putting. Meanwhile, his relative mediocrity around the greens should be mitigated this week.

Aggressive: Nick Taylor (+220)

When I first saw Taylor listed at 80/1 in the outright market, he was almost an immediate first click. Taylor has been terrific lately, going 4th-13th-23rd at the Memorial Tournament, RBC Canadian Open and U.S. Open over the past three weeks. Throw in the fact that the five-time winner has plenty of equity in that market and the price seemed right. That is, until a little more research showed that last year’s T-42 at the Travelers was his best finish by 22 spots in eight career starts here. That doesn’t make a ton of sense, since this course should suit him, so I’ll play him at a nice number for his best result.

Travelers Championship First-Round Leader Picks

Aaron Rai (+5000)

Rickie Fowler (+5000)

I’ll eschew the usual conservative/aggressive approach for a couple of guys at the same mid-tier price. Rai has made a living getting off to hot starts on Thursdays, with a 65 at the Truist and 67 at the PGA just in the past month. When Fowler plays well here, he really plays well. In the last seven years, he’s missed three cuts, but the other four have all been top-20s. He’s certainly worthy of a single-round investment, if not a top-10/20 finishing position play, as well.