Truist Championship Predictions: Conservative/Aggressive Plays for Every Type of Bettor

I’ve long held a theory about venues being used as a “one-off” for PGA Tour events.

This is a very specific provision, which doesn’t account for courses that have just started hosting tournaments on an annual basis, or those being employed as part of a major championship rotation. I’m referring only to courses utilized as a one-year stopgap or temporary host.

It remains simply as anecdotal evidence, but for whatever reason, the PGA Tour tends to err on the side of caution when setting up these venues. Maybe that’s because it’s so difficult to draw this line of delineation before a course gets too difficult; maybe it’s because they want to ensure that players aren’t bad-mouthing a fill-in course only due to the setup.

This theory will be tested once again this week, as the Truist Championship – long known as the Wells Fargo previously – is held at Philadelphia Cricket Club’s Wissahickon Course, as regular host Quail Hollow Club will host the following week’s PGA Championship.

Over the next few days, we’ll hear plenty about what an ultra-cool, old-style track the Cricket Club really is, and none of that is untrue. (I had the good fortune to tee it up there myself a few summers ago and can attest to it being an absolute gem. My biggest lock of the week isn’t a specific player in this field, but that golfers will watch this event on television and immediately start contacting Philly friends in hopes they can help ‘em out with a future tee time.)

We’ll also hear, though, that competitors in this signature event will undoubtedly need to avoid the wispy fescue and find these smaller greens with their approach shots and keep the ball below the hole on the heavily back-to-front sloped greens.

Again, none of this is untrue, yet it’s easy to envision how this could become embellished over the next few days.

The fact of the matter is that the course is a 7,119-yard par-70, which will need to play extremely fast and firm to befuddle some of the world’s best golfers.

I’m not suggesting that we’ll see anything close to the 31-under 253 total that Scottie Scheffler posted at the CJ Cup Byron Nelson (he’ll skip this week to rest before the PGA, by the way), but I do think the narrative around this never-before-seen PGA Tour course might be that it’ll play tougher than it eventually does.

Speaking of Scheffler, I wrote in this space last week not that I thought he couldn’t or wouldn’t win against an egregiously inferior field, but that I believed TPC Craig Ranch provided too many variables to play him at such a short outright number. That turned out to be wrong, of course, just as failing to pick Rory McIlroy this week could, as he follows the Occam’s Razor strategy of golf betting – the simplest explanation is often the correct explanation.

I do believe the push-and-pull of this course could favor big hitters who traditionally tend to play well on shorter courses – think of those bombers who have fared well at places like Waialae, Harbour Town, Colonial and TPC River Highlands – but ultimately, the greatest determining factor of results will likely be approach play, like so many others on the annual schedule.

Let’s get to the picks, starting with a player who checks a few very specific boxes.

Truist Championship Outright Winner Picks

Conservative: Patrick Cantlay (+1800)

I’ve often referred to the PGA Tour calendar as a deli counter for the game’s most elite-level players: Everyone takes a ticket and when your number is called, step up and claim your trophy. Obviously, some players are putting more, uh, cheddar into their carts than others, but as recent wins from Scheffler and Justin Thomas proved once again (not to mention those from Russell Henley and Viktor Hovland in the past few months), the best players in the game tend to win golf tournaments, even if it takes longer than they’d like to hear their names called.

Enter Cantlay, whose nearly three-year winless drought doesn’t get nearly as much attention for some reason as Thomas’ did or as Spieth’s still does or as that of Collin Morikawa, which is about a year-and-a-half shorter. Perhaps that’s a byproduct of not being one of the most “popular” players, but Cantlay’s talent level is unequivocally at least on the same plane as each of these other players. There are a few reasons to like him for this one, though admittedly “because he’s due” isn’t as prevalent as others.

The region of the country known as the Northeast might not technically extend from Ohio through Maryland, but the golf courses don’t know that and there are some similarities amongst “Northeast” courses which might not qualify as being in the Northeast, which includes four of Cantlay’s seven career individual wins. Bentgrass greens and a winning score nearing 20-under are his jam and while he owns just one top-10 in his last seven starts, the other results aren’t terrible and his approach play has been through the roof, as usual. I don’t mind this number in the outright market, either, at four times bigger than that of pre-tourney favorite McIlroy, though a prolific winner in Xander Schauffele being just two points shorter does give me pause for concern.

Even so, Cantlay is the type who can win a major championship and should be winning a signature event here and there. This one feels ripe for the picking and there are too many arrows pointing in his direction to ignore him. 

Aggressive: Wyndham Clark (+5500)

This feels like a proper week to do a little price-shopping. On a course with no previous PGA Tour experience, scouring the board in search of inflated numbers isn’t a poor strategy. With just a single top-10 in 10 starts, it hasn’t been a great season for Clark so far – hence his odds. But allow me to issue my regular reminder: When offering selections for outright plays, we’re only hoping to hit the ceiling. Anything in second place or beyond is a losing ticket, so I want to bank on high-upside players without worry of a lowered floor.

There’s an excellent chance that this is yet another middling performance for the 2023 U.S. Open champion, that like in so many of his starts this year, some part of his game will fail to live up to the others. There’s also, though, a greater chance that he plays the kind of high-level golf we’ve seen from him in previous spike weeks than others at a similar price point. All of which, I think, is important to note, simply from the perspective of understanding why certain selections make sense in some markets, but not others. I know there are some “readers” who will skim this piece, vaguely realize that I picked Clark “to win,” then troll me on social media when he finishes in a share of 34th place.

That’s fine and I certainly don’t care about the reaction, but it’s worth realizing that not all outright bets are created equal. Or in more specific terms: I don’t necessarily think Clark is going to win this event, but I do think the actual probability is greater than the implied probability in his odds, which is what I’m seeking in a longshot outright selection. 

Truist Championship Top-5 Picks

Conservative: Jordan Spieth (+500)

This one feels a bit like going to a pool party, seeing all the guests gathered around the pool, but not actually in it, then deciding to be the first one to cannonball into the deep end. I’m not suggesting that nobody else has bet Spieth recently – I had him for a top-10 in this very space last week – just that there’s plenty of trepidation toward a guy who’s largely been an enigma so far this year. It feels like every time Spieth plays, there’s been one little aspect of his game which is just a bit off, leading to a result which is ultimately neither wholly successful nor a total failure.

I don’t think Sunday’s nifty 9-under 62 will open any floodgates, but they should serve as another step in the right direction, as Spieth sounded more optimistic in his progression than he’s been all season. “My mechanics are just getting a little bit better each week,” he said afterward. “I feel really good about what we’re working on.” The list of pre-tournament storylines for next week’s PGA Championship is as lengthy as before any major in the past half-decade, but another strong performance from Spieth could ratchet that up a few more notches, as he tries to join McIlroy in the career slam club. When Spieth is confident in himself, we should be confident in him, as well. He sounds as confident right now as he’s been in the past few years. 

Aggressive: Keegan Bradley (+700)

It will be noted, perhaps much too frequently, that the last time the PGA Tour traveled to the Philadelphia area, Bradley was the winner, defeating Justin Rose in a playoff at the 2018 BMW Championship. That might be good for some vibes this week, and I’m sure acumen at Aronimink can have some correlation to here, but there are plenty of other reasons to like the Ryder Cup captain, not the least of which is the way he’s been playing lately.

Dating back to his victory at last year’s PGA Championship, Keegan has gained strokes with both his driver and his irons in 11 of 13 starts. The putter has been its usual balky self, but he doesn’t need to putt great to contend. Of the five instances this year when he’s putted better than field average, four have led to top-20s and two were top-10s. Give him another bump for being in the Northeast and it should all (hopefully) equate to a title contention this week. 

Truist Championship Top-10 Picks

Conservative: Daniel Berger (+260)

For as much as we’ve collectively discussed just how well Berger has played this year, we’re still completely underplaying his performance. This is fairly remarkable: In his last seven starts, Berger lost a half-stroke per round off the tee at The Players and was barely below field average on the greens at the RBC Heritage – and that’s it. He’s 26-for-28 in gaining strokes in the four major categories since the beginning of February. Scheffler and McIlroy can’t say that and while I’d have to peruse the statlines of every other player on the PGA Tour, I don’t imagine anyone else can say it, either.

The only thing keeping Berger from being talked about as one of the best stories in the game is the lack of a victory, but it’s coming soon. He’s yet another who’s tended to play some of his best golf in the Northeast and whether it’s here or TPC River Highlands next month, it’s coming soon. I’ll play him for an outright this week, because I don’t want to miss out when it inevitably happens, but I like the idea of playing his floor even better. 

Aggressive: Maverick McNealy (+300)

I suppose I’d have to poll the public as to whether it’s Berger or McNealy who is more underappreciated for their full body of work so far this season, but the theme remains the same. While Berger’s consistency has yielded a much higher floor, McNealy’s peak weeks have led to an increased ceiling, with three top-three finishes in his last seven starts.

There’s little to dislike about Mav, whose connection with Berger continues in the fact that neither does anything especially great, but they both do everything very well. I’d be extremely surprised if both of these players aren’t also prominently mentioned for positioning plays in my PGA Championship preview next week, too. 

Truist Championship Top-20 Picks

Conservative: Tony Finau (+200)

There is admittedly not much to get too excited about when it comes to Finau right now, as he’s posted one top-10 in 11 starts this year and nothing inside the top-30 in his last six. I’m basing this largely on two things: A tantalizing plus-money play in which he needs only finish in the top-27.8% of this 72-man field and a penchant for playing his best golf on shorter tracks, despite being a longer hitter. I also think that a player of his talent level can’t go too much longer without turning it around a bit.

Aggressive: Michael Thorbjornsen (+333)

After finishing in a share of runner-up honors at the Corales Puntacana Championship and T-4 alongside Karl Vilips at the Zurich Classic, Thorbjornsen started strong at the CJ Cup Byron Nelson, but needed birdie on his final hole of the second round to make the cut on the number. Not only did he do that, but he posted scores of 66-69 on the weekend to finish in a share of 33rd place and gain entry into a signature field for the first time. I love when players with a little bit of momentum can play with house money and that’s exactly the case here. I wouldn’t play him above a top-20, but this result feels very attainable.

Truist Championship First-Round Leader Picks

Conservative: Davis Thompson (+5000)

While I love Thompson’s offensive firepower, I’ve been a little underwhelmed so far in what I’d thought would be a breakout campaign for him. While his opening rounds have been similarly underwhelming – nothing sub-70 in his last five – he has shown a propensity to go low, with four scores of 66 or better this year.

Aggressive: Denny McCarthy (+5000)

Due to his putting prowess, McCarthy is a player I like targeting for single-round investments, because if the flatstick gets hot from mid-range, he can cook up something in the mid-60s in a hurry. In fact, he’s got five openers of 68 or better this year and while it might take something closer to 64, like he started with at the Sony Open back in January, I still think he holds a lot of value on this golf course and don’t mind him for four-round plays, either.