Valero Texas Open 2023: Predictions, Best Bets, Sleepers

While many golf fans cannot wait for next week’s Masters, there’s one more tournament to go until it’s officially Masters week.

The Valero Texas Open is this week from TPC San Antonio. And since it’s the week before a major and not a designated event, the field isn’t as strong as a typical PGA Tour event.

Tyrrell Hatton, who is No. 17 in the Official World Golf Rankings, has the best odds to win this week at +1200. 

Other top players in the field include Corey Conners, Hideki Matsuyama, and Rickie Fowler. As of Monday, only 10 players who are in the field at Augusta are teeing it up this week. 

J.J. Spaun is the defending champion.

When it comes to TPC San Antonio, it is one of the longer courses on Tour at 7,438 yards, but over the years the players who keep the ball in the fairway have had more success than players who hit the ball the farthest. 

There isn’t much identity to the course, either. The vast majority of holes are pretty straightforward with tree-lined fairways. The best defense the course has is the Texas wind and firm and fast conditions.

Winning scores have been relatively good in recent years. In the last six editions of the event, the winning score has been 12-under or better.

With that being said, Texas has been hot and dry the past few months, so the course is expected to play very firm and fast. This could lead to some higher scores than in past years.

Since there’s not much star-power in the field, a lot more players teeing it up have a chance to win than in an average week.

Below are some players to target when golf betting, followed by my betting card for the week.

*All odds as of March 28.

Valero Texas Open Predictions

Tyrrell Hatton is predicted to win the Valero Texas Open with a 7.69% implied probability — i.e., the overall chance of a potential outcome in relation to the odds — according to betting markets.

Corey Conners and Rickie Fowler have the next best odds to win with a 4.67% implied probability. They are followed by Si Woo Kim at 4.35%.

Valero Texas Open Best Bets

Tyrrell Hatton +1200 Odds to Win

Hatton has never played in this event before, but he does come in playing relatively well. Although he didn’t make it out of group play at the WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play, he had back-to-back top-five finishes before that.

Based on world ranking, Hatton is the best player in the field this week.

Rickie Fowler +2000 Odds to Win

Fowler is playing his best golf in years. He too didn’t make it out of group play last week, but has five top-20 finishes in his last six starts, including a T-10 at the WM Phoenix Open.

The 34-year-old hasn’t qualified for the Masters in each of the last two years, and his only way in this year is to win this week.

Valero Texas Open Sleepers

Brendon Todd +4500 Odds to Win

Todd is fourth on the PGA Tour this year in driving accuracy, which will serve him well this week at TPC San Antonio. He also is high in other key metrics, relative to other players in the field.

He finished T-8 at the tournament a year ago and has had a solid start to the year, including a T-2 at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am.

Alex Smalley +6600 Odds to Win

Smalley ranks high in a bunch of key metrics relative to TPC San Antonio, including being No. 1 in the field in bogeys avoided. 

The 26-year-old had two top-five finishes last fall, showing he has what it takes to compete on Tour.

Valero Texas Open Betting Card & Other Predictions

• Si Woo Kim Outright Win +2000
• Matt Kuchar Outright Win +3000
• Brendon Todd Outright Win +4500
• Andrew Putnam Outright Win +5500
• Rickie Fowler Top-10 Finish +180
• Cam Davis Top-20 Finish +175
• Brendon Todd Top-20 Finish +180

I relied heavily on my Fantasy National model for this week since there are not many top-tier players in the field. Most of my selections were based on value.

I was a bit surprised to see Todd at No. 1 in my model, but that is why I am playing him to win outright as well as finish inside the top 20.

Davis did not rank high in my model, but he’s seemingly healthy for the first time in a while, which should make a big difference this week.

Here is the top-10 of my Fantasy National model:

1. Brendon Todd
2. Matt Kuchar
3. Chris Kirk
4. Tyrrell Hatton
5. Hideki Matsuyama
6. Alex Smalley
7. Si Woo Kim
8. Nate Lashley
9. Andrew Putnam
10. Corey Conners