Valero Texas Open 2025: Predictions, Best Bets

One week on the PGA Tour remains before the Masters, and it will be the Valero Texas Open, April 3-6, from TPC San Antonio.

While not a PGA Tour signature event, several big names are using the week as a final tune-up for the Masters, including Ludvig Aberg, Tommy Fleetwood, Patrick Cantlay, Jordan Spieth and Corey Conners.

Going into the event, Fleetwood has the best odds to win at +1200.

Low scores should be expected, as the winning score has been 15-under or better in five of the last six years, including 20-under by Akshay Bhatia a year ago.

The winner of the event will qualify for the Masters if not already exempt. 

I will be focusing on a number of metrics this week, including Strokes Gained: Approach, Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green, Fairways Gained, Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee, Strokes Gained: Putting, Bogey Avoidance and Par-5 Scoring.

Valero Texas Open Prediction

Ludvig Aberg is expected to win the Valero Texas Open with a 7.69% implied probability, according to betting markets. Tommy Fleetwood is next at 6.67%.

Implied probability is the overall chance of a potential outcome in relation to the odds.

Valero Texas Open Best Bets

Denny McCarthy Outright Winner (+3300)

McCarthy is one of the best players on the PGA Tour who has yet to win, so why not have it be this week at a place he’s had some success at?

The 32-year-old lost in a playoff to Akshay Bhatia a year ago. He was able to force the playoff by making seven straight birdies to close with a back-nine 28. Ultimately, he hit his third shot into the penalty area on the first playoff hole to fall to Bhatia.

In addition to the great performance last year, he also has two other top-20 finishes at TPC San Antonio.

McCarthy also comes in playing solidly of late, with back-to-back top-20 finishes at the Arnold Palmer Invitational and the Players Championship.  

Lastly, he checks a lot of the boxes when it comes to the metrics needed to succeed here, highlighted by his exceptional putting and iron game.

Jordan Spieth Top-10 Finish (+240)

It’s been an up-and-down year for Spieth with some solid finishes mixed in with some not-so-solid finishes. But, TPC San Antonio is a place he’s won before (2021) and finished inside the top 10 a year ago.

This course seems to fit his eye, similar to others on the PGA Tour, where he seems to play well no matter what his recent form is. 

For the first time in quite some time, he’s shown his wrist is feeling pretty good and is not impacting his game. 

Given his great course history at TPC San Antonio and the volatility of his season, don’t be surprised if this is one of his better weeks.

Rico Hoey Top-20 Finish (+250)

Hoey checks a ton of the boxes needed to play well at TPC San Antonio, including ranking No. 1 in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-green and Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee in the last 24 rounds of any player in the field. 

Not only did he finish T-14 in his debut here a year ago, but he is coming off a T-11 finish at the Texas Children’s Houston Open. 

Overall, Hoey has finished T-33 or better in five of his last six events and will look to keep the momentum going.