Valero Texas Open: 3 PGA Expert Picks This Week

Only a week separates golf bettors from the 2025 Masters. But before the first major, players head to TPC San Antonio for the Valero Texas Open. 

Ludvig Aberg (+1200) arrives as the market favorite to win this week’s event. He’s tailed closely on the odds board by Tommy Fleetwood (+1400) and Corey Conners (+1600). 

All told, eight players are priced at +2500 or shorter, including past winners Jordan Spieth (+2500) and Akshay Bhatia (+2000). 

Let’s dive into my Valero Texas Open predictions for this week based on golf odds at the BetMGM online sportsbook.

PGA Tour Expert Picks: Valero Texas Open

Daniel Berger (+3300) | Top-20 Finish (+138)

In terms of meaningful stats that have driven success at TPC San Antonio, very few plague Berger. 

Over his previous 24 rounds, Berger ranks fourth in SG: T2G, sixth in good drives gained and fifth in bogey avoidance. 

He also leads the field in Par 4 Efficiency, including fifth on holes ranging 450-500 yards, while ranking ninth and fifth, respectively, in birdies or better gained and bogey avoidance. 

While Berger lacks any course history at TPC San Antonio, he recorded strong finishes at courses with similar profiles. 

A preeminent feature of this track is mid-to-high winds. In his career, Berger ranks eighth in SG: TOT on such courses ranging beyond 7,400 yards. 

Irrespective of length, Berger ranks 14th in SG: TOT over his last 24 rounds with such winds. 

All told, Berger sits second in my mixed condition model, so I like the price on him at TPC San Antonio. 

Keegan Bradley (+2500) | Top-20 Finish (+120)

Much like Berger, Bradley has enjoyed a strong start to 2025 with metrics to support his run. 

Dating back to the Sony Open – Bradley’s first full field event – the 2025 Ryder Cup captain owns four top 20s across six starts, including two top-six finishes. 

Driving that success is Bradley’s complete profile from tee to green. In 2025, he ranks sixth in SG: T2G, including ninth in SG: APP. 

Shrink the sample down to his past 12 rounds: fourth in T2G, fifth on approach. 

Over that same 12-round sample, Bradley also ranks 17th in opportunities gained, fourth in bogey avoidance and 10th in Par 5 Efficiency. 

While he sits 33rd in total Par 4 Efficiency, his excellence with long irons should aid him at TPC San Antonio. 

He ranks third in efficiency on holes between 450 and 500 yards. Three of the last four winners here finished fifth or better in that category for the week. 

Pair those metrics with an eighth-place finish in 2022, and I like Bradley’s profile, despite the short price.

Bud Cauley (+4500) | Top-20 Finish (+200)

It almost feels a touch obvious with Cauley off a pair of top-six finishes at TPC Sawgrass and Innisbrook. 

But the price on a player with outstanding core stats simply cannot be ignored. Plus, Cauley owns a pair of top-20s in six starts at TPC San Antonio. 

The underlying theme amongst recent winners here is this: arrive with strong approach play with improvement needed around the green. 

That’s Cauley, who posted the third-best round of his career at the Valspar from a SG: APP standpoint. 

However, he lost 0.2 strokes around the green, ending a streak of five straight tournaments gaining in that category. 

Another sign of encouragement with Cauley? He has recently excelled in all of the stats meaningful to a winner. 

Two straight winners here have paced the field in all of the following categories: SG: T2G, SG: APP, GIRs Gained, Birdies or Better Gained, Par 4 Efficiency and Par 5 Efficiency. 

Cauley ranks no worse than 37th in any of those categories over his last 12 rounds. To boot, he’s fourth over that span in Par 4 Efficiency: 450-500 yards. 

If Cauley continues his strong approach play and bolsters his ARG record, he offers a higher probability to win than these odds imply.