Valspar Championship: 3 PGA Expert Picks This Week

Following two marquee PGA Tour events, a comparably weaker field heads to Innisbrook CC for this week’s Valspar Championship. 

Tommy Fleetwood (+1200) emerges as the market favorite following a T-14th at TPC Sawgrass the week prior. The Englishman is still seeking his first PGA Tour victory. 

Justin Thomas (+1400) tails Fleetwood closely on the odds board. 

From there, Sepp Straka (+1800), Xander Schauffele (+2000), Corey Conners and Shane Lowry (both +2200) round out the five shortest prices. 

Let’s dive into my Valspar Championship picks based on golf odds at the BetMGM online sportsbook. 

PGA Tour Expert Picks: Valspar Championship

Michael Kim (+4000) | Top-20 Finish (+180)

The price on Kim simultaneously feels slightly too low, yet still palatable on a player with a strong profile before a missed cut at The Players. 

Over his last 24 measured rounds, Kim ranks second and 12th, respectively, in SG: T2G and SG: APP. 

Further bolstering Kim’s profile is a 10th-placed rating in Par 4 Efficiency: 450-500 yards and a second-place rating in Par 5 Efficiency: 550-600 yards. 

While the entire body of work at Innisbrook leaves much to be desired, improvements have started to come. 

After missing the cut in four of his first five appearances at the Copperhead course, Kim enjoyed finishes of 45th and 33rd in his last two appearances. 

Maybe it’s optimistic to view that record as turning a corner, but Kim’s complete profile and Par 5 proficiency should drive success this week. 

Given Kim sits sixth in my mixed condition model, I like taking him at the 14th-largest price to win. 

Shane Lowry (+2200) | Top-20 Finish (+115)

I may have come in a week too early on Lowry at the Players, where he finished in a tie for 20th. 

If Lowry’s putter cooperates this week, his consistent ball-striking record should allow him to contend. 

At TPC Sawgrass, Lowry ranked 10th and fourth, respectively, in SG: T2G and SG: APP. Over his last 24 rounds, the Irishman ranks fifth in both categories. 

Lowry sits sixth in Par 4 Efficiency: 450-500 yards, eighth in Par 5 Efficiency: 550-600 yards and 12th in Par 3 Efficiency over his previous 24 rounds. 

He also cashed a top-20 ticket in three straight and four of his previous starts on tour. 

Plus, there’s previous success to consider at Innisbrook. Last year, Lowry finished in a tie for 12th, four years removed from a T-49th. 

Lowry sits fifth in my mixed condition model – a spot ahead of his market placement – so I like his profile at the Copperhead Course. 

Taylor Moore (+4500) | Top-20 Finish (+200)

Moore, a former winner at the Valspar Championship, is rounding into form for his return to a strong track. 

Not since the Waste Management Phoenix Open has Moore cashed a top-20 bet, but the tee-to-green metrics remain encouraging. 

Moore ranks 18th in the field in SG: T2G and gained +3.9 strokes on approach at The Players. That marked the first time since the Amex Moore gained more than one stroke on approach. 

Now, Moore’s dropped into a track where he owns a win and a T-12th in his previous two starts. 

A few additional stats are worth considering. 

Moore ranks 18th and 19th, respectively, in GIRs gained and birdies or better gained. He also ranks 26th in Par 4 Efficiency: 450-500 yards and 15th in Par 5 Efficiency: 550-600 yards. 

Pair those metrics with his strong record at Innisbrook, and I like the buy-low spot on Moore. 

Valspar Championship Mixed Condition Model

• SG: T2G, Last 24 Rounds (15%)
• Good Drives Gained, Last 24 Rounds (10%)
• SG: APP, Last 24 Rounds (15%)
• Proximity: 175-200 Yards, Last 24 Rounds (5%)
• Proximity: 200+ Yards, Last 24 Rounds (5%)
• Greens in Regulation Gained, Last 24 Rounds (10%)
• Birdies or Better Gained, Last 24 Rounds (10%)
• SG: Putting – Bermuda, Last 36 Rounds (10%)
• Par 4 Efficiency: 450-500 Yards, Last 24 Rounds (10%)
• Par 5 Efficiency: 550-600 Yards, Last 24 Rounds (10%)