The Pittsburgh Pirates (+140) visit Ed Smith Stadium to take on the Baltimore Orioles (-165) on Wednesday, March 6, 2024. First pitch is for this Spring Training game is scheduled for 6:05pm EST in Sarasota, FL.
This season, the Pirates are 5-6 against the spread (ATS), while the Orioles are 6-2 ATS.
Pirates vs. Orioles Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Moneyline | |
| Pirates | +140 |
| Orioles | -165 |
Pirates vs Orioles Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Orioles will win Wednesday‘s matchup with 56.5% confidence, based on game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Pirates Player Prop Bets Today:
- Canaan Smith-Njigba has hit the Singles Under in 5 of his last 6 games (+3.85 Units / 41% ROI)
- Jason Delay has hit the Singles Over in his last 2 away games (+3.30 Units / 165% ROI)
- Canaan Smith-Njigba has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 2 games (+2.25 Units / 112% ROI)
- Jack Suwinski has hit the Runs Under in his last 2 away games (+2.00 Units / 37% ROI)
- Canaan Smith-Njigba has hit the Runs Over in 2 of his last 4 away games (+1.40 Units / 35% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Orioles players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Orioles Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Kyle Stowers has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 9 games (+9.25 Units / 73% ROI)
- Adley Rutschman has hit the Hits Under in his last 3 games (+4.70 Units / 100% ROI)
- Gunnar Henderson has hit the RBIs Over in his last 2 games (+3.70 Units / 185% ROI)
- Ryan Mountcastle has hit the Hits Under in his last 2 games (+2.75 Units / 79% ROI)
- Heston Kjerstad has hit the Singles Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 62% ROI)
Pirates Best Bets Today:
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Moneyline in 35 of their last 67 games (+15.85 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Over in 69 of their last 120 games (+15.10 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 76 of their last 134 games (+11.44 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 29 of their last 65 games (+10.67 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 39 of their last 63 games (+10.50 Units / 13% ROI)
Orioles Best Bets Today:
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Moneyline in 100 of their last 162 games (+33.70 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have covered the Run Line in 89 of their last 152 games (+23.20 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Under in 17 of their last 22 games (+11.60 Units / 48% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 14 of their last 21 games at home (+6.72 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Team Total Over in 46 of their last 81 games (+5.39 Units / 6% ROI)
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this Spring Training, the Pirates are 6-5 against the Run Line (+0.01 Units / 0.07% ROI).
- 5-6 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.17 Units / -9.25% ROI
- 7-4 when betting on the total runs Over for +2.8 Units / 23.29% ROI
- 4-7 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.6 Units / -29.51% ROI
Orioles Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this Spring Training, the Orioles are 6-2 against the Run Line (+4.7 Units / 49.53% ROI).
- 8-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +8.85 Units / 85.51% ROI
- 3-5 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.47 Units / -28.16% ROI
- 5-3 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.7 Units / 19.14% ROI
Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Mitch Keller had a strikeout rate of 54% (61/113) in PAs ending on fastballs away in the 2023 season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 26% — 100th Percentile.
Mitch Keller has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 82.2 MPH on inside pitches since last season (377 balls in play) — tied for 5th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 129 total IP; League Avg: 85.7
Mitch Keller elevated 42% of his pitches (713/1,680) vs left-handed batters in the 2023 season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 32% — 94th Percentile.
Mitch Keller located 38% of his pitches inside (815/2,170) in non-two strike counts in the 2023 season — 4th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 31% — 93rd Percentile.
Orioles Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
No Matchup notes for this Game
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Orioles
The Pirates are just 56-80 (.412) after a win since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .516.
The Pirates were 34-7 (.829) when they had 10 or more hits in the 2023 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .728.
The Pirates are just 111-56 (.665) when allowing 4 or fewer runs since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .718.
The Pirates are just 33-43 (.434) after a home win since last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .536.
Orioles Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Orioles are 54-41 (.568) after a loss as underdogs since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .407.
The Orioles were 72-12 (.857) when they scored 5 or more runs in the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .780.
The Orioles are 55-57 (.491) after a win as underdogs since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .417.
The Orioles were 22-26 (.458) when allowing 2 or more home runs in the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .312.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
Pirates hitters slugged just .511 on the first pitch of at-bats in the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .596.
The Pirates have a winning percentage of just 42% since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Pirates hitters slugged just .383 against LHP in the 2023 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .419.
The Pirates have a winning percentage of just 40% on the road since last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Orioles Hitting Stats & Trends
The Orioles were 36-16 (.692) against the run line (28.5% ROI) after a road win in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .498.
The Orioles are 193-126 (.601) against the run line (12.5% ROI) since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .493.
The Orioles won 64% of their road games in the 2023 season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
Orioles hitters drew 169 walks in 1,701 PA’s (10%) against LHP in the 2023 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
The longest HR allowed by the Pirates pitchers in the 2023 season traveled 454.0 feet — — 2nd shortest in MLB; League Avg: 466.0
Pirates pitchers had allowed a run 36% of the time after scoring a run on offense in the 2023 season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 32%.
The Pirates pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 56% of their games since last season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
The Pirates pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 53% of their games on the road since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 45%.
Orioles Pitching Stats & Trends
The Orioles won 53% of road games in which their opponents scored first in the 2023 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
The Orioles won 49% of games in which their opponents scored first in the 2023 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 34%.
Orioles pitchers had a strikeout rate of 24% with runners in scoring position in the 2023 season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Orioles pitchers had allowed 177 home runs in the 2023 season — tied for 4th fewest in MLB.
Orioles vs. Pirates Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Gunnar Henderson (Baltimore Orioles): Oblique, Out
- Felix Bautista (Baltimore Orioles): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Terrin Vavra (Baltimore Orioles): Shoulder, Out
- John Means (Baltimore Orioles): Elbow, Out
- Kyle Bradish (Baltimore Orioles): Elbow, Out
- Shintaro Fujinami (Baltimore Orioles): Personal, Out
- Andrew McCutchen (Pittsburgh Pirates): Achilles, Out
- Johan Oviedo (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Vince Velasquez (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, Out
- Mike Burrows (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, Out
- JT Brubaker (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Endy Rodriguez (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
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