- The Yankees are -210 favorites vs the Pirates
- Pirates starting pitcher: Luis Ortiz, 0.00 ERA
- Yankees starting pitcher: Domingo Germán, 3.85 ERA
- Watch the game on YES
The Pittsburgh Pirates (+170) visit George M. Steinbrenner Field to take on the New York Yankees (-210) on Monday, March 6, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 6:35pm EST in Tampa.
The Yankees are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-105).
The Pirates vs Yankees Over/Under is 9.5 total runs for the game.
During Spring Training, the Pirates are 1-4 against the spread (ATS), while the Yankees are 3-2 ATS.
Pirates vs. Yankees Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Pirates | +1.5 -115 | O 9.5 -110 | +170 |
| Yankees | -1.5 -105 | U 9.5 -110 | -210 |
Pirates vs Yankees Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Yankees will win Monday‘s Spring Training matchup with 69.1% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Pirates and Yankees and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Pirates Player Prop Bets Today:
- Josh VanMeter has hit the Runs Under in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 40% ROI)
- Jason Delay has hit the Singles Over in 2 of his last 5 games (+0.10 Units / 2% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Yankees players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Yankees Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- No trends found
Pirates Best Bets Today:
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 56 of their last 98 games (+12.55 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Over in 19 of their last 26 games (+10.40 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 28 of their last 47 away games (+6.85 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Over in 33 of their last 61 games (+6.60 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 20 of their last 36 games (+6.20 Units / 16% ROI)
Yankees Best Bets Today:
- The New York Yankees have hit the Moneyline in 56 of their last 80 games at home (+13.85 Units / 9% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 15 of their last 24 games at home (+11.60 Units / 30% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 24 of their last 36 games (+11.15 Units / 28% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Under in 36 of their last 61 games (+10.35 Units / 15% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 20 of their last 32 games (+7.75 Units / 21% ROI)
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Pirates have gone 4-2 against the Run Line (+0.8 Units / 9.41% ROI).
- 1-4 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.9 Units / -47.54% ROI
- 4-2 when betting on the total runs Over for +1.9 Units / 28.36% ROI
- 2-4 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.25 Units / -34.35% ROI
Yankees Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Yankees have gone 3-2 against the Run Line (+0.75 Units / 11.36% ROI).
- 3-2 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.8 Units / 10.74% ROI
- 4-1 when betting on the total runs Over for +2.9 Units / 51.33% ROI
- 1-4 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.25 Units / -60.75% ROI
Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Luis Ortiz walked 10 of 69 batters (14%) over the last 30 days of the regular season (4 games) — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 13 total IP; League Avg: 7% — 0 Percentile.
Luis Ortiz allowed a slugging percentage of just .220 (13 Total Bases / 59 ABs) over the last 30 days of the regular season (4 games) — 8th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 13 total IP; League Avg: .401 — 95th Percentile.
Opponents batted just .136 (8-for-59) against Luis Ortiz over the last 30 days of the regular season (4 games) — 4th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 13 total IP; League Avg: .242 — 98th Percentile.
Luis Ortiz allowed an OPS of just .481 (69 PA’s) over the last 30 days of the regular season (4 games) — 12th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 13 total IP; League Avg: .702 — 92nd Percentile.
Yankees Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
The average home run distance against Domingo German against right-handed batters since the start of the 2021 season is 380.8 feet — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: 399.1
The average home run distance against Domingo German since the start of the 2021 season is 380.5 feet — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: 398.9
Domingo German has thrown his curveball 34% of the time (641/1,910) in non-two strike counts since the start of the 2021 season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total CB; League Avg: 15% — 98th Percentile.
Domingo German has thrown his curveball 39% of the time (553/1,414) against right-handed batters since the start of the 2021 season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total CB; League Avg: 15% — 98th Percentile.
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Yankees
The Pirates are just 96-26 (.787) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .875.
The Pirates are just 52-8 (.867) when leading entering the 8th inning last season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .915.
The Pirates are just 3-79 (.037) when trailing entering the 8th inning last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .085.
The Pirates are just 58-87 (.400) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits last season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .533.
Yankees Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Yankees are 11-41 (.212) when trailing entering the 7th inning last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .119.
The Yankees are 10-49 (.169) when trailing entering the 8th inning last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .085.
The Yankees are 57-24 (.704) at home last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .532.
The Yankees are 28-4 (.875) when totaling 5 or more extra base hits last season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .802.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
The Pirates are batting just .145 with two-strikes since the start of the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .168.
Pirates hitters have an OBP of just .291 (3,601 PA’s) against LHP since the start of the 2021 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .318.
Pirates hitters are slugging just .170 on pitches out of the zone since the start of 2020 — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .210.
Pirates hitters have an OPS of just .450 (6,270 PA’s) with two-strikes since the start of the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .510.
Yankees Hitting Stats & Trends
Yankees hitters are averaging 4.03 pitches per plate appearance against RHP since the start of the 2021 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.90.
Yankees hitters have drawn 890 walks in 8,783 PA’s (10%) against RHP since the start of the 2021 season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
The Yankees batted just .214 with two outs last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .236.
Yankees hitters have an OPS of 1.176 (2,320 PA’s) with the pitcher behind in the count since the start of the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 1.083.
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
Pirates pitchers have walked 1,439 of 14,594 batters (10%) since the start of 2020 — tied for highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
The Pirates pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 60% of their games on the road last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
Pirates pitchers have walked 242 of 2,817 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of the 2021 season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Pirates pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 21% in close and late situations since the start of the 2021 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Yankees Pitching Stats & Trends
Yankees pitchers have won 56% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
The average home run distance against the Yankees pitchers since the start of the 2021 season is 392.2 feet — best in MLB; League Avg: 399.3
In games when their opponents have scored three or more runs in an inning, the Yankees have have still managed to win 47% of the time last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Yankees pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% since the start of the 2021 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Yankees vs. Pirates Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- New York Yankees – No Injuries Reported
- Pittsburgh Pirates – No Injuries Reported
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