- Arsenal is +175 to win the Premier League in 2024-25.
- In the last two seasons, Arsenal has finished second in the league both years.
- Why one specific regression metric could hold back Arsenal from winning the league.
Arsenal is the preferred choice by oddsmakers to end Manchester City’s domestic title run in the Premier League.
The Gooners, who have finished second in the league two years on the bounce, are +175 to win the league this year. Last year, they finished only two points behind City.
Here’s a look at the EPL odds, Arsenal odds and my betting predictions for Arsenal’s campaign.
Arsenal Futures Odds
- League Winner: +175
- Top-4 Finish: -650
- Relegation Odds: +50000
- Top Goalscorer: Kai Havertz (+2500), Bukayo Saka (+2500)
Arsenal Notable Permanent Additions
- Riccardo Calafiori, Defender (Bologna)
- David Raya, Goalkeeper (Brentford, Loan Move Made Permanent)
Arsenal Prediction, 2024-25 Premier League Season
I lean toward Arsenal winning the Premier League in 2024. However, the price is too low to justify a bet based on one giant concern.
There’s no denying the defensive quality of Arsenal, who led the league in expected goals against last season. Across 38 league matches, they allowed only 27.9 expected goals.
That might be enough to capture a title, but Arsenal’s attack has run very lucky over the last two seasons.
Over that timeframe, Arsenal have scored 179 goals off only 147.8 expected goals, per fbref.com.
Additionally, they’ve benefited A LOT from poor opponent goalkeeping.
Not counting own goals, Arsenal scored 15.5 goals over post-shot expected goals last season. The previous year, they scored 17.2 goals over post-shot expected.
For context, the gap between Arsenal and second-place Aston Villa in 2023-24 was as big as the gap between Villa and seventh-placed Bournemouth.
If, all of a sudden, those goals dry up and Arsenal receive superior goalkeeping play from opponents, it puts greater pressure on their defense.
Now for the good news: Arsenal proved simultaneously unlucky last year based on one historical trend.
Since the 2017-18 Premier League season, the team that has led the league in expected goals against has won the league all but two times.
One such occasion came last year when Arsenal failed to win the title despite allowing 7.7 fewer expected goals than Man City.
While there’s no reason that feat isn’t repeatable, it feels like you’re buying Arsenal at their peak.
As a result, they’re not worth a bet to win the Premier League title.
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