Arsenal vs. Aston Villa Prediction, Odds & Match Preview

On the heels of a win over rivals Tottenham, Arsenal stay at home for a weekend clash with Aston Villa. 

Mikel Arteta’s side captured a 2-1 come-from-behind win over Tottenham, gaining ground on Liverpool in the title race. Currently, Arsenal sits four points adrift of the league lead. 

Villa earned a 1-0 road win over Everton in the midweek, their second straight league win. Now, they’ll look to end a five-game losing streak as road underdogs in the league. 

Check out the Premier League odds and my Arsenal vs. Aston Villa prediction. 

Arsenal vs. Aston Villa Odds, Premier League

Arsenal vs. Aston Villa Prediction

Based on Aston Villa’s weak defensive metrics against good teams away from home, my Arsenal vs. Aston Villa prediction is Arsenal Over 2.5 Goals (+170). 

Even if you throw out Villa’s trip to Newcastle in which they played down a man for an hour, this remains an extremely vulnerable defense. 

In four prior matches as a road underdog, Villa have yet to concede fewer than two goals. 

The underlying metrics support those weak performances. 

In those four matches – Nottingham Forest, Liverpool, Chelsea and Tottenham – Villa surrendered 1.93 expected goals per 90 and 2.08 post-shot xG per 90. 

Irrespective of market status, Villa have allowed all but one team to create at least 1.1 expected goals away from home. 

While Arsenal’s attack has looked suspect without Bukayo Saka, this offers a favorable matchup that should benefit their attack. 

There’s also some betting calculus behind this pick. 

History suggests this spot is a good match to take over 2.5 goals. Since last year, games featuring a total of 2.5 goals are 48-13 (78.7%), assuming two factors:

• The road team’s previous game margin falls between +0 and +1
• The road team’s average number of goals falls between 1.3 and 2.1

When the road team’s average falls between 1.5 and 1.9 – Villa sit at 1.5 – matches are 30-3 to the over. 

But given Villa have failed to create at least one post-shot xG in four of five as road dogs, take a small piece of the Arsenal team total rather than laying -140 on over 2.5 goals.