- Arsenal is predicted to be a -0.5-goal home favorite against Newcastle.
- Arsenal has won 11 of its last 12 EPL home matches against Newcastle United.
- My Arsenal vs. Newcastle prediction is the Arsenal Moneyline.
Off a massive home win against Chelsea, Newcastle United travels to London for a meeting with Arsenal.
Newcastle’s 2-0 win over Chelsea lifted the Magpies up to third in the table. Now, they’ll look to complete the league double over Arsenal following a 1-0 home win earlier this season.
Arsenal captured a 2-2 draw at Liverpool on Sunday, their fourth draw over their last six matches. Not since April 1 has Mikel Arteta’s side earned a home win.
Check out the Premier League odds and my Arsenal vs. Newcastle prediction.
Arsenal vs Newcastle: Premier League Odds
- Arsenal Moneyline: -110
- Draw Moneyline: +260
- Newcastle Moneyline: +290
- Over/Under: 2.5 Goals (-145/+105)
- Both Teams to Score: “Yes” (-160), “No” (+110)
Newcastle vs Arsenal: Prediction
Based on Arsenal’s strong record with both Martin Odegaard and Bukayo Saka, my Arsenal vs Newcastle prediction is the Arsenal Moneyline (-110).
Newcastle claimed victory in the reverse fixture, but Arsenal operated without chief creator Odegaard.
That proved a big difference in Arsenal’s 0.0 post-shot xG performance, their worst output of the entire season.
The return of Odegaard – alongside a fully healthy Saka – should benefit Arsenal, which excels at home. At a +0.91 xGDiff per 90, Arsenal rank third in home expected goal differential.
Irrespective of venue, Arsenal has lost only one match all season with both Odegaard and Saka in the Starting XI. That came against Bournemouth in Arsenal’s last home match.
For Newcastle, it’s a strong sell-high spot after a win over Chelsea. Newcastle’s early goal, paired with a Chelsea red card inside the first half, undoubtedly contributed to said win.
Away from home, Newcastle has struggled against good teams. In four visits to sides with a home xGDiff of +0.5 or higher, Newcastle is 0-0-4 (W-D-L).
History also suggests Sunday’s spot is a prime chance to back Arsenal.
Since 2012, home favorites between -148 and -108 in fixtures 24-38 are 43-12, including 11-4 between -115 and -105, assuming two factors:
- The opponent closed as a favorite in its last game
- The opponent’s previous game margin falls between +1 and +4
When the favorite’s previous game margin falls between -2 and +1, the favorite improves to 35-5 SU.
As a result, I like taking the short price on Arsenal to win its final home game of the season.
Premier League Match Schedule
| Home | Away | Date | Time (ET) | Location |
| Aston Villa | Tottenham | May. 16 | 2:30 p.m. | Villa Park |
| Chelsea | Manchester United | May. 16 | 3:15 p.m. | Stamford Bridge |
| Everton | Southampton | May. 18 | 7 a.m. | Goodison Park |
| West Ham United | Nottingham Forest | May. 18 | 9:15 a.m. | London Stadium |
| Leicester City | Ipswich Town | May. 18 | 10 a.m. | King Power Stadium |
| Brentford | Fulham | May. 18 | 10 a.m. | GTech Community Stadium |
| Arsenal | Newcastle United | May. 18 | 11:30 a.m. | Emirates Stadium |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | Liverpool | May. 19 | 3 p.m. | Amex Stadium |
| Crystal Palace | Wolves | May. 20 | 3 p.m. | Selhurst Park |
| Manchester City | Bournemouth | May. 20 | 3 p.m. | Etihad Stadium |
Premier League ATS Records
| Team | ATS Record | ATS% | Home ATS Record | Home ATS% | Road ATS Record | Road ATS% |
| Arsenal | 13-17-6 | 44.4% | 4-10-4 | 33.3% | 9-7-2 | 55.6% |
| Aston Villa | 17-18-1 | 48.6% | 8-9-1 | 47.2% | 9-9-0 | 50.0% |
| Bournemouth | 19-15-2 | 55.6% | 8-10-0 | 44.4% | 11-5-2 | 66.7% |
| Brentford | 22-11-3 | 65.3% | 11-7-0 | 61.1% | 11-4-3 | 69.4% |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 20-15-1 | 56.9% | 9-9-0 | 50.0% | 11-6-1 | 63.9% |
| Chelsea | 13-20-3 | 40.3% | 7-9-2 | 44.4% | 6-11-1 | 36.1% |
| Crystal Palace | 19-13-4 | 58.3% | 7-7-4 | 50.0% | 12-6-0 | 66.7% |
| Everton | 18-12-6 | 58.3% | 8-8-2 | 50.0% | 10-4-4 | 66.7% |
| Fulham | 18-14-4 | 55.6% | 8-10-0 | 44.4% | 9-5-4 | 61.1% |
| Ipswich Town | 14-19-3 | 43.1% | 4-13-1 | 25.0% | 10-6-2 | 61.1% |
| Leicester City | 17-18-1 | 48.6% | 7-11-0 | 38.9% | 10-7-1 | 58.3% |
| Liverpool | 16-18-2 | 47.2% | 7-9-2 | 44.4% | 9-9-0 | 50.0% |
| Manchester City | 12-24-0 | 33.3% | 6-12-0 | 33.3% | 6-12-0 | 33.3% |
| Manchester United | 14-18-4 | 44.4% | 7-9-2 | 44.4% | 7-9-2 | 44.4% |
| Newcastle United | 21-14-1 | 59.7% | 13-5-0 | 72.2% | 8-9-1 | 47.2% |
| Nottingham Forest | 22-14-0 | 61.1% | 10-8-0 | 55.6% | 12-6-0 | 66.7% |
| Southampton | 13-19-4 | 41.7% | 4-12-2 | 27.8% | 9-7-2 | 55.6% |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 13-22-1 | 37.5% | 6-11-1 | 36.1% | 7-11-0 | 38.9% |
| West Ham United | 18-16-2 | 52.8% | 6-11-1 | 36.1% | 12-6-0 | 66.7% |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 19-14-3 | 56.9% | 8-8-2 | 50.0% | 11-6-1 | 63.9% |
Premier League Standings
| Team | Record (Wins-Draws-Losses) | Points | Goal Differential |
| Liverpool | 25-8-3 | 83 | 46 |
| Arsenal | 18-14-4 | 68 | 33 |
| Manchester City | 19-8-9 | 65 | 24 |
| Newcastle United | 19-6-10 | 63 | 21 |
| Chelsea | 18-9-8 | 63 | 21 |
| Aston Villa | 18-9-9 | 63 | 7 |
| Nottingham Forest | 18-8-10 | 62 | 12 |
| Brentford | 16-7-13 | 55 | 10 |
| Brighton | 14-14-8 | 55 | 3 |
| Bournemouth | 14-11-11 | 53 | 11 |
| Fulham | 14-9-13 | 51 | 1 |
| Crystal Palace | 12-13-11 | 49 | -2 |
| Everton | 9-15-12 | 42 | -5 |
| Wolves | 12-5-19 | 41 | -13 |
| West Ham | 10-10-16 | 40 | -17 |
| Manchester United | 10-9-17 | 39 | -11 |
| Tottenham | 11-5-21 | 38 | 4 |
| Ipswich Town | 4-10-22 | 22 | -42 |
| Leicester City | 5-7-24 | 22 | -47 |
| Southampton | 2-6-28 | 12 | -57 |
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