- Arsenal is a -1.5-goal home favorite against Tottenham.
- Arsenal has won 14 of its last 16 EPL night matches.
- My Arsenal vs. Tottenham prediction depends on the Tottenham lineup.
Arsenal go for a third straight win in the North London Derby on Wednesday against Tottenham.
In Arsenal’s last Premier League fixture, Mikel Arteta’s side dropped points in a 1-1 draw at Brighton. Currently, Arsenal sits six points adrift of Liverpool for the league title.
Tottenham’s current form leaves much to be desired. Spurs are winless in four league games and remain without multiple key defensive starters.
Check out the Premier League odds and my Arsenal vs. Tottenham prediction.
Arsenal vs. Tottenham Odds, Premier League
Arsenal vs. Tottenham Prediction
If Tottenham feature both James Maddison and Heung Min-Son in the Starting XI, my Arsenal vs. Tottenham prediction is the Tottenham Spread (+1.5, -120).
This is such a difficult match to handicap. Metrics say to back Arsenal to cover, but history says to back Tottenham.
Arsenal has proved one of the league’s best home teams this season, with a +12 goal differential. They’ve simultaneously run unlucky against a +13 expected goal differential.
At a +1.45 xGDiff per 90 at home, Arsenal leads the Premier League.
Spurs, to their credit, sit at a +0.28 xGDiff per 90 on the road. However, they remain without three defensive starters: Destiny Udogie, Christian Romero and Micky van de Ven.
They also possess a terrible set piece defense – 17th in expected goals from set pieces – against an Arsenal attack that leads the league in the corresponding offensive category.
Now for the positive.
Spurs, without two of the three aforementioned starters, beat Manchester City 4-0 earlier this year away from home, creating 3.4 post-shot xG in the process.
The key difference between Arsenal and City, though, is that Arsenal ranks first in post-shot xG allowed while City ranks ninth.
As a result, Spurs will need both key attackers in order to exploit an Arsenal defense that has surrendered only 4.8 xG at the Emirates.
History also suggests this is a good spot to take Tottenham to cover.
Since 2012, 1.5-goal underdogs that closed an underdog in their previous match are 69-26 ATS (72.6%), assuming three factors:
- The underdog’s previous margin in the last head-to-head falls between -6 and -1
- The dog failed to win their previous game
- The favorite’s previous game margin falls between +0 and +2
When that match occurs from Matchday 19 onward, the dog is 44-9 ATS, including 13-1 in the last 14 qualifying matches.
As a result, it’s Tottenham or nothing in the North London Derby.
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