- Aston Villa is +5000 to win the Premier League in 2024-25.
- Villa earned a Champions League spot last year and earned max points vs. Arsenal.
- I predict Aston Villa, who ran lucky last year, will see a points dropoff.
For the first time in club history, Aston Villa will partake in the modern version of the UEFA Champions League.
Villa, under manager Unai Emery, secured placement in Europe’s top competition thanks to a fourth-place finish last year.
The question: can Villa avoid the fate suffered by Newcastle United last year and keep pace with their domestic challengers?
Here’s a look at the EPL odds, Aston Villa odds and my betting predictions for Aston Villa’s campaign.
Aston Villa Futures Odds
- League Winner: +5000
- Top-4 Finish: +275
- Relegation Odds: +6600
- Top Goalscorer: Ollie Watkins (+1600)
Aston Villa Notable Permanent Additions
- Lewis Dobbin, Defender (Everton)
- Ian Maatsen, Defender (Chelsea)
- Samuel Iling-Junior, Midfielder (Juventus)
- Ross Barkley, Midfielder (Luton Town)
- Amadou Onana, Midfielder (Everton)
Aston Villa Prediction, 2024-25 Premier League Season
I predict Aston Villa will negatively regress this season in terms of points accumulated and miss out on a top-4 spot.
While some of Villa’s business this summer has impressed me — Onana, most notably — all signs point to regression in 2024.
Last year, Villa ran very lucky based on their underlying metrics.
They posted a +17 goal differential and 68 points. However, Emery’s side posted a +2.34 expected goal differential and a xPoints output of 55.43, per understat.com.
Of the teams that finished inside the top eight last year, only Manchester United outperformed their expected points output by a larger margin.
Additionally, Villa’s paper-thin defense —14th in post-shot expected goals against — benefitted a lot from quality goalkeeping.
World Cup winner Emi Martinez saved 4.9 goals over expected, the second-largest output in the league.
On the other end of the field, Villa benefited a lot from poor play by opposing goalkeepers.
Emery’s side ranked eighth in post-shot expected goals, but they scored 9.9 goals over expected. Only Arsenal benefitted more in terms of goals over post-shot expected.
Finally, for all of their quality additions this offseason, Villa lost two key playmakers.
Winger Moussa Diaby and midfielder Douglas Luiz, both of whom ranked fifth or better in npxG + expected assists, left in the transfer window.
Add in the fixture congestion from Champions League and I’ll be quite surprised if Villa challenge for a top-four spot this season.
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