- Aston Villa is a -0.5-goal home favorite against Brighton.
- Aston Villa is unbeaten in their last four home games against Brighton.
- My Aston Villa vs. Brighton prediction is the Villa Moneyline.
Two clubs with European aspirations meet on Monday at Villa Park, with Aston Villa hosting Brighton.
Villa struggled in their Boxing Day fixture, falling 3-0 at Newcastle United. That marks two losses in the last three games for Villa, which currently sits ninth in the league table.
Brighton faces a home match against Brentford on Friday and will look to end a five-match winless run. Currently, the Seagulls sit 10th in the league table.
Check out the Premier League odds and my Aston Villa vs. Brighton prediction.
Aston Villa vs. Brighton Odds, Premier League
Aston Villa vs. Brighton Prediction
Based on Villa’s potential regression at home and Brighton’s overperformance away from home, my Aston Villa vs. Brighton prediction is the Villa Moneyline (-105).
This shapes up as a cheap price on a team that has actually recorded one of the best home records in the Premier League.
Villa enter Monday’s match with a +5 home goal differential compared to a +9.9 expected goal differential, per fbref.com.
Only Arsenal and Liverpool own superior expected goal differentials per 90 at home than Villa, which is 5-3-1 (W-D-L) at Villa Park.
Comparatively, Brighton has run extremely fortunate in their travels this season.
The Seagulls possess a +0 road goal differential vs. a -4.4 expected goal differential away from home. Only five teams own an inferior differential in trips this season.
Villa also dominated the last time these sides met at Villa Park.
A 6-1 win is flattering by the underlying metrics, but Villa still captured a 3.25-1.15 edge on post-shot expected goals, per fotmob.com.
While the performance at Brighton left so much to be desired, Villa’s home performances tend to produce superior results.
History also likes this spot to bet Villa as short home favorites.
Since 2012, home favorites between -142 and -105 against a previous favorite are 49-16, assuming the favorite won or lost the last meeting by a single goal.
When those favorites are coming off a loss by three or more goals, they’re a perfect 8-0 SU.
As a result, take the hosts at a short price with one extra day of prep time for the Seagulls.
Related Articles
EPL Betting at BetMGM
BetMGM is the premier online sportsbook for EPL betting throughout the year.
With EPL futures and weekly odds, including match winner odds, over/under totals, and player props, there are a variety of opportunities to bet online!
If you don’t have an account, register today with BetMGM’s welcome offer. Once you have an account, check for daily sports betting promos.
