- Liverpool is a -0.5-goal favorite against Aston Villa.
- Visitors earned a 3-0 home win the last time these sides played.
- Why bettors should expect goals to flow at Villa Park.
For Monday Night Football (Premier League version), Liverpool travels to Birmingham to face Aston Villa.
Liverpool’s title hopes could be dashed by kickoff if City and Arsenal both win. Still, they enter Monday’s game fresh off a 4-2 win over Tottenham.
As for Aston Villa, they’re in a bit of crisis mode as they attempt to hang onto the final Champions League spot.
Entering Monday’s game, Villa are winless in their last four in all competitions.
Here’s a look at the EPL odds and my prediction for Monday’s fixture.
EPL Betting Odds – Liverpool vs. Aston Villa
- Liverpool Moneyline: -140
- Aston Villa Moneyline: +300
- Draw Moneyline: +350
- Over/Under: 3.5 Goals (-135/-105)
Premier League Prediction – Liverpool vs. Aston Villa
Total Over 3.5 Goals (-135)
Right now, the Aston Villa defense can’t stop anyone, even at home. In their last eight Premier League fixtures at Villa Park, they’ve surrendered 1.87 expected goals per 90 minutes.
They’ve particularly struggled at home against competent attacks. This calendar year, Villa have played four attacks averaging at least 1.5 non-penalty xG.
Sample only the minutes played at 11v11 and bettors will find Villa allowed 1.7 post-shot expected goals.
In those four contests, they’ve allowed all four teams to score at least two goals with three reaching three or more goals.
Plus, Villa struggled immensely the last time they played Liverpool. Albeit away from home, they conceded 2.5 expected goals.
This season, Liverpool sits second in road expected goals and has bossed bad defenses away from Anfield.
In nine road matches against sides allowing more than 1.45 npxGA per 90 minutes, Liverpool has created 1.85 npxGA per 90 minutes.
All that said, don’t count out this Villa attack. They’ve scored at least once in all home matches bar one and get a Liverpool defense that’s markedly worse away from home.
The Reds have kept only four clean sheets away from home, but three of those opponents generated at least one expected goal.
Entering Monday’s match, Liverpool have allowed 1.39 xGA per 90 on the road compared to 0.95 at Anfield.
In their last five road matches, they’ve surrendered 1.5 psxG without facing a single side inside the top-eight in that category.
This game also matches a historically profitable system. Since 2012-13, overs in games featuring a home underdog are 48-25-1, assuming three factors:
- The away team’s average number of goals is between 1.4 and 4
- The closing total is 2.5, 3 or 3.5
- The home team’s previous over/under margin is between -2 and -3.5
Liverpool Form
May 5 vs. Tottenham: 4-2, W
April 27 at West Ham: 2-2, D
April 24 at Everton: 0-2, L
April 21 at Fulham: 3-1, W
April 18 at Atalanta: 1-0, W (Europa League)
Aston Villa Form
May 9 at Olympiacos: 0-2, L (Europa Conference League)
May 5 at Brighton: 0-1, L
May 2 vs. Olympiacos: 2-4, L (Europa Conference League)
April 27 vs. Chelsea: 2-2, D
April 21 vs. Bournemouth: 3-1, W
Upcoming EPL Match Schedule
| Home | Away | Date | Time (ET) | Location |
| Brighton | Chelsea | Feb. 14 | 3 p.m. | Amex Stadium |
| Leicester City | Arsenal | Feb. 15 | 7:30 a.m. | King Power Stadium |
| Aston Villa | Ipswich Town | Feb. 15 | 10 a.m. | Villa Park |
| Fulham | Nottingham Forest | Feb. 15 | 10 a.m. | Craven Cottage |
| Man City | Newcastle United | Feb. 15 | 10 a.m. | Etihad Stadium |
| Southampton | Bournemouth | Feb. 15 | 10 a.m. | St. Mary's Stadium |
| West Ham United | Brentford | Feb. 15 | 10 a.m. | London Stadium |
| Crystal Palace | Everton | Feb. 15 | 12:30 p.m. | Selhurst Park |
| Liverpool | Wolves | Feb. 16 | 9 a.m. | Anfield |
| Tottenham | Manchester United | Feb. 16 | 11:30 a.m. | Tottenham Hotspur Stadium |
EPL Standings
| Team | Record (Wins-Draws-Losses) | Points | Goal Differential |
| Liverpool | 17-5-1 | 56 | 35 |
| Arsenal | 14-8-2 | 50 | 27 |
| Nottingham Forest | 14-5-5 | 47 | 13 |
| Chelsea | 12-7-5 | 43 | 16 |
| Manchester City | 12-5-7 | 41 | 13 |
| Newcastle United | 12-5-7 | 41 | 13 |
| Bournemouth | 11-7-6 | 40 | 13 |
| Aston Villa | 10-7-7 | 37 | -3 |
| Fulham | 9-9-6 | 36 | 4 |
| Brighton | 8-10-6 | 34 | -3 |
| Brentford | 9-4-11 | 31 | 0 |
| Crystal Palace | 7-9-8 | 30 | -2 |
| Manchester United | 8-5-11 | 29 | -6 |
| Tottenham | 8-3-13 | 27 | 11 |
| West Ham United | 7-6-11 | 27 | -17 |
| Everton | 6-8-9 | 26 | -5 |
| Wolves | 5-4-15 | 19 | -18 |
| Leicester City | 3-5-15 | 17 | -28 |
| Ipswich Town | 3-7-14 | 16 | -27 |
| Southampton | 2-3-19 | 9 | -36 |
EPL ATS Records
| Team | ATS Record | ATS% | Home ATS Record | Home ATS% | Road ATS Record | Road ATS% |
| Arsenal | 9-10-5 | 47.9% | 3-6-3 | 37.5% | 6-4-2 | 58.3% |
| Aston Villa | 8-15-1 | 35.4% | 3-8-1 | 29.2% | 5-7-0 | 41.7% |
| Bournemouth | 16-8-0 | 66.7% | 7-5-0 | 58.3% | 9-3-0 | 75.0% |
| Brentford | 14-8-2 | 62.5% | 8-5-0 | 61.5% | 6-3-2 | 63.6% |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 12-11-1 | 52.1% | 4-7-0 | 36.4% | 8-4-1 | 65.4% |
| Chelsea | 9-13-2 | 41.7% | 4-7-1 | 37.5% | 5-6-1 | 45.8% |
| Crystal Palace | 13-8-3 | 60.4% | 4-5-3 | 45.8% | 9-3-0 | 75.0% |
| Everton | 12-9-2 | 56.5% | 6-5-1 | 54.2% | 6-4-1 | 59.1% |
| Fulham | 14-8-2 | 62.5% | 5-7-0 | 41.7% | 8-2-2 | 75.0% |
| Ipswich Town | 10-13-1 | 43.8% | 4-9-0 | 30.8% | 6-4-1 | 59.1% |
| Leicester City | 11-12-1 | 47.9% | 5-7-0 | 41.7% | 6-5-1 | 54.2% |
| Liverpool | 13-9-1 | 58.7% | 5-5-1 | 50.0% | 8-4-0 | 66.7% |
| Manchester City | 7-17-0 | 29.2% | 3-8-0 | 27.3% | 4-9-0 | 30.8% |
| Manchester United | 10-12-2 | 45.8% | 5-7-1 | 42.3% | 5-5-1 | 50.0% |
| Newcastle United | 13-10-1 | 56.3% | 7-5-0 | 58.3% | 6-5-1 | 54.2% |
| Nottingham Forest | 16-8-0 | 66.7% | 7-5-0 | 58.3% | 9-3-0 | 75.0% |
| Southampton | 9-12-3 | 43.8% | 2-8-1 | 22.7% | 7-4-2 | 61.5% |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 9-15-0 | 37.5% | 4-8-0 | 33.3% | 5-7-0 | 41.7% |
| West Ham United | 12-11-1 | 52.1% | 4-7-1 | 37.5% | 8-4-0 | 66.7% |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 10-12-2 | 45.8% | 5-6-1 | 45.8% | 5-6-1 | 45.8% |
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