- Aston Villa is a +0.5-goal home underdog against Man City.
- Manchester City has won five straight EPL day matches against Aston Villa.
- My Aston Villa vs. Manchester City prediction focuses on the pregame over/under.
Matchday 17 of the Premier League season kicks off with Aston Villa hosting Man City at Villa Park.
Aston Villa blew a late lead to fall 2-1 at Nottingham Forest in their last fixture. Over their last seven league fixtures, Unai Emery’s side accumulated only seven points.
Man City finds itself back in crisis. Pep Guardiola’s side blew a 1-0 lead against rivals Manchester United on Sunday, extending their winless run to three matches in all competitions.
Check out the Premier League odds and my Aston Villa vs. Man City prediction.
Aston Villa vs. Man City Odds, Premier League
Aston Villa vs. Man City Prediction
Based on Manchester City’s lackluster defensive record and Villa’s weak record against good teams, my Aston Villa vs. Man City prediction is Over 3.5 Goals (+135).
Villa’s defense leaves much to be desired at the moment.
They’ve played RB Leipzig and Nottingham Forest over their last two matches. Leipzig amassed three post-shot xG against Villa, while Forest created 1.9 post-shot xG.
Lost in City’s poor run of form is that their offense excels with Kevin De Bruyne in the Starting XI.
In City’s last three league matches, they’ve accumulated at least 2.3 post-shot xG twice.
Now, they face a Villa side which surrendered 3.13 post-shot xG in their last meeting against the Cityzens.
But there’s simultaneously a record of what City’s defense looks like without Rodri against Villa.
Guardiola’s City played without their Ballon D’Or winner in their last trip to Villa Park. They surrendered 2.4 expected goals, 1.75 post-shot xG and two big scoring chances.
Entering Saturday’s match, City ranks 12th in post-shot expected goals against and 10th in non-penalty expected goals against, per fbref.com.
Lastly, I’m doing a bit of betting calculus for this contest.
Over the last two seasons, matches featuring a total of 2.5 goals, a home team off a loss and a road team averaging between 1.3 and 2.5 goals are 50-18 to the over.
When those matches feature a home underdog: 31-11 to the over, including 22-7 when the road team averages between 1.8 and 2.5 goals.
Given this match features a strong likelihood of clearing 2.5 goals, I’ll elect to take the plus money on over 3.5 rather than laying -185 on over 2.5 goals.
At the same time, a SGP: Both Teams to Score & Over 2.5 Goals (-140) also receives my endorsement.
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