- Aston Villa is a -0.5-goal favorite against Manchester United.
- Villa earned a 5-0 road win against Sheffield United last Sunday.
- Aston Villa matches two historically profitable betting systems.
Ahead of Sunday’s kickoff from Villa Park, I’m set to provide a Premier League prediction for Aston Villa vs. Manchester United.
Both teams enter this game in solid form. Villa avenged their 3-1 home defeat to Newcastle United – their first home loss all season – by beating Sheffield United 5-0.
As for Manchester United, they’ve won two straight league fixtures and have earned at least a point in three straight.
Here’s a look at the EPL odds for Sunday’s match and my best bet.
EPL Betting Odds – Aston Villa vs. Manchester United
- Aston Villa Moneyline: +115
- Manchester United Moneyline: +210
- Draw Moneyline: +275
- Over/Under: 2.5 Goals (-190/+135)
EPL Prediction – Aston Villa vs. Manchester United
Aston Villa Moneyline (+115)
This rates out a fantastic sell-high spot on Manchester United, who have historically struggled on the road against competent teams.
Since the 2017-18 season, Manchester United is only 40.4% ATS as a road dog against a team with a winning percentage north of 45%.
Shrink the sample down to the last three seasons, and bettors will find the Red Devils are only 3-11 ATS in those spots, including 0-8 ATS when they’re +0.5 or shorter.
On the flip side, Villa is 16-6 ATS as a home favorite since Unai Emery took over as manager.
It’s also wise historically to buy home favorites against teams on a winning streak, particularly when they failed to win the last head-to-head meeting.
Since 2017-18, home favorites that drew or lost the previous head-to-head meeting against a side that has won at least two straight are 61.5% ATS.
Plus, this Villa side has produced strong underlying metrics this season as a home favorite.
In nine qualifying matches, they’ve posted a +9.69 non-penalty post shot expected goal differential and have covered -0.5 in seven of those nine matches.
Add in there wasn’t a lot separating these teams in the reverse fixture at Old Trafford – Villa only lost the expected goals on target battle 1.66 to 1.95 – and I expect they’ll dominate.
Back hosts Villa on the three-way moneyline at -110 or better.
Aston Villa Form
Feb. 3 at Sheffield United: 5-0, W
Jan. 30 vs. Newcastle United: 1-3, L
Jan. 14 at Everton: 0-0, D
Dec. 30 vs. Burnley: 3-2, W
Dec. 26 at Manchester United: 2-3, L
Manchester United Form
Feb. 4 vs. West Ham United: 3-0, W
Feb. 1 at Wolves: 4-3, W
Jan. 14 vs. Tottenham: 2-2, D
Dec. 30 at Nottingham Forest: 1-2, L
Dec. 26 vs. Aston Villa: 3-2, W
EPL Match Schedule This Weekend
| Home | Away | Date | Time (ET) | Location |
| Chelsea | Everton | Apr. 26 | 7:30 a.m. | Stamford Bridge |
| Southampton | Fulham | Apr. 26 | 10 a.m. | St. Mary's Stadium |
| Brighton | West Ham United | Apr. 26 | 10 a.m. | Amex Stadium |
| Newcastle United | Ipswich Town | Apr. 26 | 10 a.m. | St. James' Park |
| Wolves | Leicester City | Apr. 26 | 10 a.m. | Molinneux |
| Bournemouth | Manchester United | Apr. 27 | 9 a.m. | Vitality Stadium |
| Liverpool | Tottenham | Apr. 27 | 11:30 a.m. | Anfield |
EPL Standings
| Team | Record (Wins-Draws-Losses) | Points | Goal Differential |
| Liverpool | 24-7-2 | 79 | 44 |
| Arsenal | 18-13-3 | 68 | 34 |
| Manchester City | 18-7-9 | 61 | 23 |
| Nottingham Forest | 18-6-9 | 60 | 14 |
| Newcastle United | 18-5-10 | 59 | 18 |
| Chelsea | 16-9-8 | 57 | 18 |
| Aston Villa | 16-9-9 | 57 | 5 |
| Bournemouth | 13-10-10 | 49 | 12 |
| Fulham | 13-9-11 | 48 | 3 |
| Brighton | 12-13-8 | 48 | 0 |
| Brentford | 13-7-13 | 46 | 6 |
| Crystal Palace | 11-12-11 | 45 | -4 |
| Everton | 8-14-11 | 38 | -6 |
| Manchester United | 10-8-15 | 38 | -8 |
| Wolves | 11-5-17 | 38 | -13 |
| Tottenham | 11-4-18 | 37 | 10 |
| West Ham | 9-9-15 | 36 | -18 |
| Ipswich Town | 4-9-20 | 21 | -38 |
| Leicester City | 4-6-23 | 18 | -46 |
| Southampton | 2-5-26 | 11 | -54 |
EPL ATS Records
| Team | ATS Record | ATS% | Home ATS Record | Home ATS% | Road ATS Record | Road ATS% |
| Arsenal | 12-16-6 | 44.1% | 4-9-4 | 35.3% | 8-7-2 | 52.9% |
| Aston Villa | 15-18-1 | 45.6% | 7-9-1 | 44.1% | 8-9-0 | 47.1% |
| Bournemouth | 18-13-2 | 57.6% | 8-8-0 | 50.0% | 10-5-2 | 64.7% |
| Brentford | 20-11-2 | 63.6% | 10-7-0 | 58.8% | 10-4-2 | 68.8% |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 17-15-1 | 53.0% | 7-9-0 | 43.8% | 10-6-1 | 61.8% |
| Chelsea | 12-19-2 | 39.4% | 6-9-1 | 40.6% | 6-10-1 | 38.2% |
| Crystal Palace | 18-12-4 | 58.8% | 7-6-4 | 52.9% | 11-6-0 | 64.7% |
| Everton | 17-11-5 | 59.1% | 8-7-2 | 52.9% | 9-4-3 | 65.6% |
| Fulham | 18-12-3 | 5.1% | 8-9-0 | 47.1% | 9-4-3 | 65.6% |
| Ipswich Town | 13-18-2 | 42.4% | 4-13-0 | 23.5% | 9-5-2 | 62.5% |
| Leicester City | 15-17-1 | 47.0% | 6-11-0 | 35.3% | 9-6-1 | 59.4% |
| Liverpool | 15-16-2 | 48.5% | 6-8-2 | 43.8% | 9-8-0 | 52.9% |
| Manchester City | 12-22-0 | 35.3% | 6-11-0 | 35.3% | 6-11-0 | 35.3% |
| Manchester United | 13-16-4 | 45.5% | 7-8-2 | 47.1% | 6-8-2 | 43.8% |
| Newcastle United | 19-13-1 | 59.1% | 11-5-0 | 68.8% | 8-8-1 | 50.0% |
| Nottingham Forest | 21-12-0 | 63.6% | 10-6-0 | 62.5% | 11-6-0 | 64.7% |
| Southampton | 12-18-3 | 40.9% | 3-12-1 | 21.9% | 9-6-2 | 58.8% |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 12-20-1 | 37.9% | 6-10-1 | 38.2% | 6-10-0 | 37.5% |
| West Ham United | 17-15-1 | 53.0% | 6-10-1 | 38.2% | 11-5-0 | 68.8% |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 17-13-3 | 56.1% | 7-7-2 | 50.0% | 10-6-1 | 61.8% |
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