Bournemouth Prediction: 2024 EPL Betting Preview

In their debut season under manager Andoni Iraola, Bournemouth made marked improvements. 

The Cherries jumped from 15th to 12th and improved by nine points year over year. However, based on their expected goal differential, they ran very unlucky. 

The offseason saw the departure of defender Lloyd Kelly with striker Dominic Solanke rumored to follow Kelly out the door. 

Here’s a look at the EPL odds, Bournemouth Odds and my betting predictions for their campaign. 

Bournemouth Futures Odds

• League Winner: +50000
• Top-Half Finish: +175
• Bottom-Half Finish: -250
• Relegation Odds: +700

Bournemouth Notable Permanent Additions

• Luis Sinisterra, Winger (Leeds United)
• Enes Unal, Striker (Getafe)
• Dean Huijsen, Defender (Juventus)

Bournemouth Prediction, 2024 Premier League

Update: Reports from transfer insider Fabrizio Romano indicate Tottenham have purchased Solanke from Bournemouth. The below analysis was written before this announcement, and I no longer consider Bournemouth a buy team in 2024.

Predicting Bournemouth’s season outlook is difficult right now due to the unknown future of talisman Solanke. 

The England international, who accounted for 32% of Bournemouth expected goals output last season, has been linked to Tottenham. 

If Bournemouth sell Solanke, I have no interest in taking them to finish inside the top half, the realistic market for this team. 

Last season, the Cherries ran very unlucky in their debut season under manager Andoni Iraola. 

They posted a -13 goal differential compared to a -2.2 expected goal differential. The latter figure qualifies as the 11th-best mark in the league. 

Most of that bad luck can be attributed to their record as underdogs. 

Bournemouth closed a dog 22 times last season and posted a -26 goal differential. However, it came against a -10.1 expected goal differential. 

But this was a team that markedly improved as dogs later in the season. 

In their first nine matches as dogs, they finished 0-3-6 (W-D-L) with a -10 xGDiff and a -18 actual goal differential. 

In their final 13 matches as dogs, they finished 3-3-7 (W-D-L) with a -0.1 xGDiff and a -8 actual goal differential. 

Comparatively, they posted a +13 goal differential vs. a +8 expected goal differential as favorites. 

If Bournemouth retain Solanke, I’m cautiously optimistic they could see some positive regression as underdogs. 

That would, in theory, allow them to challenge for a top-half spot. However, a Solanke departure mitigates that optimism. 

As a result, I’m waiting on any Solanke news before making a decision on Bournemouth futures.