- Bournemouth is a -0.5-goal home favorite against Crystal Palace.
- Bournemouth has scored at least one goal in each of its last 10 EPL matches.
- My Bournemouth vs. Crystal Palace prediction is the Bournemouth Moneyline.
Off a massive win as road underdogs at Old Trafford, Bournemouth returns home to face Crystal Palace.
The Cherries captured a 3-0 win against Manchester United on Sunday and now sit fifth in the league table. Not since November 23 has Bournemouth dropped all three points in a match.
Crystal Palace fell 5-1 on Matchday 17 as home dogs against Arsenal. That result ended a five-match unbeaten run for Oliver Glasner’s side, which sits 16th in the league.
Check out the Premier League odds and my Bournemouth vs. Crystal Palace prediction.
Bournemouth vs. Crystal Palace Odds, Premier League
Bournemouth vs. Crystal Palace Prediction
Based on Bournemouth’s potential positive regression and Palace’s key injury absentees, my Bournemouth vs. Crystal Palace prediction is the Bournemouth Moneyline (-110).
Normally, this would mark an outstanding sell-high spot on Bournemouth following a huge road win.
But the fact Crystal Palace lost by as huge a margin as they did renders it a rare buy-high opportunity on the Cherries.
Historically, teams coming off a four-goal defeat rarely turn it around quickly, even against short favorites.
Since 2012, favorites between -126 and +142 in game five onward are 38-13 SU, assuming the dog lost by four goals in their last game.
When those teams are coming off a win by multiple goals, they improve to 10-1 SU.
Bournemouth also remains a massive positive regression candidate ahead of Matchday 18.
Entering Thursday’s game, Andoni Iraola’s side owns a +6 goal differential compared to a +11.7 expected goal differential, per fbref.com.
At home, Bournemouth recorded a +4 goal differential compared to a +7.1 expected goal differential.
The Cherries also dominated the last head-to-head meeting against Palace, who won’t feature Adam Wharton or Eberechi Eze on Thursday.
Bournemouth earned a 1-0 home win over Palace in the last meeting. However, expected goals rated the match a 1.4-0.3 outright win for Bournemouth.
That marked the second straight meeting in which Bournemouth won while earning a +1.1 post-shot xGDiff, per fotmob.com.
As a result, grab the hosts at a short price to continue their positive momentum on Thursday.
