- Bournemouth is a 0.5-goal home underdog against Man City.
- Manchester City has won 14 straight league matches against Bournemouth.
- My Bournemouth vs. Man City prediction is a Same Game Parlay.
Bournemouth looks to continue their streak of results as dogs with a Saturday meeting against Manchester City.
The Cherries, thanks to strong goalkeeping, earned a road point at Aston Villa on Matchday 9. That gives them four results in six matches as an underdog this season.
Manchester City continued their strong run in the league with a 1-0 win over Southampton last week. That gives Pep Guardiola’s side three league wins on the bounce.
Check out the Premier League odds and my Bournemouth vs. Man City prediction.
Premier League Odds: Bournemouth vs. Man City
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester City | -0.5 (-185) | 2.5 (-165) | -160 |
| Bournemouth | +0.5 (+125) | 2.5 (+115) | +400 |
| Draw | +320 |
Premier League Betting: Bournemouth vs. Man City Prediction
Based on Bournemouth’s strong attacking metrics as a dog, my Bournemouth vs. Man City prediction is Manchester City to Win and Both Teams to Score (+185).
This is the time to sell high on Bournemouth. They won 2-0 against Arsenal, but benefitted from a red card to Arsenal in the first half.
Last week, they captured a point at Villa despite losing the post-shot expected goals battle 3.2-1.1, per fbref.com.
The good news for Bournemouth is that their attacking metrics as underdogs are strong.
In six matches this year as an underdog, Andoni Iraola’s side has generated at least one post-shot expected goal in all six.
Quietly, Manchester City has kept only two clean sheets this season. The first was undeserved based on expected goals, and the second came against Southampton.
The Cherries also created 0.92 xG per 90 minutes against City last season.
But, City had defensive midfielder Rodri for both games. Dating back to last season, City have kept only two clean sheets without the Spaniard in the Starting XI.
History also suggests the Cityzens will be too much for Bournemouth.
Not only have they won 14 straight league games against the Cherries, but City matches a historically profitable betting system.
Since 2012, favorites between -215 and -105 in games 2-10 are 87-26 SU (77%), assuming three factors:
- The favorite’s margin in the last head-to-head meeting fell between +0 and +4
- The underdog’s previous game margin falls between -4 and +0
- The underdog closed a market underdog in their last game
When those sides are -170 or higher: 25-5 SU.
Take City to earn all three points in a high-scoring contest.
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