- Brentford is a -0.5-goal favorite against Nottingham Forest.
- Why it’s time to buy low on Brentford as home favorites.
- Forest is missing a number of key personnel for the trip to London.
Before Saturday’s English Premier League match, I’m set to provide a Brentford vs. Nottingham Forest prediction.
Simply put, Brentford desperately needs a win in this game. They’ve lost five straight league games and haven’t earned an outright win since December 2.
As for Forest, they’re coming off a home win against Manchester United in their last league game. Most recently, they earned a win over Blackpool in the FA Cup on Wednesday.
Here’s how the Premier League odds shape up for Saturday’s encounter at The Gtech Community Stadium, along with my best bet for the match.
Brentford vs. Nottingham Forest Betting Odds
- Brentford to Win: +100
- Nottingham Forest to Win: +270
- Brentford vs. Nottingham Forest Draw: +260
- The Brentford vs. Nottingham Forest Over/Under is 2.5 Goals
Brentford vs. Nottingham Forest Prediction
Based on recent trends, the prediction for Brentford vs. Nottingham Forest is the Brentford Moneyline (+100).
My prediction is based on up-to-date player injuries for both teams, expected goal trends and recent player performances.
I’m obsessed with this market, and it might be one of my favorite bets of the entire season.
In terms of their Premier League form, there are few encouraging signs with Brentford. They’ve lost five on the bounce in the league while conceding 12 goals.
However, they’re starting to return to full health and return talisman Ivan Toney from his six-month suspension for this match.
Plus, Brentford has massively underperformed its underlying metrics at home.
Entering Saturday’s match, they’ve posted a -1 goal differential at home vs. a +4 expected goal differential, per fbref.com.
At a +0.39 xGDiff per 90 minutes, manager Thomas Frank’s side ranks ninth in the Premier League.
Now they get a Forest side that has earned results in only four of 10 road Premier League matches and will operate without a number of key players.
Talisman Taiwo Awoniyi remains out injured, while Anthony Elanga is doubtful. Defenders Serge Aurier, Willy Boly and Moussa Niakhate also won’t feature due to the Africa Cup of Nations.
That will severely hamper them against a Brentford side that ranks eighth in non-penalty expected goals this season, again per fbref.com.
Lastly, Brentford matches a historically profitable betting system.
Since the 2021-22 season, home favorites facing an opponent on a win streak of two or more are 61.1% against the spread, including 8-2 ATS this season.
Back the Bees to earn all three points at -115 or better.
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