- Brentford is a +1.5-goal home underdog against Liverpool.
- Liverpool has won each of its last four EPL matches against Brentford.
- My Brentford vs. Liverpool prediction is to use Liverpool in a moneyline parlay.
Looking for a second straight result as home underdogs, Brentford host title favorites Liverpool on Saturday.
The Bees surged back from a two-goal deficit to rescue a point against Manchester City in the midweek. That result moves Brentford into the top half of the league table.
Liverpool drew 1-1 against Nottingham Forest in the midweek. That marked their second straight draw after three straight league wins.
Check out the Premier League odds and my Brentford vs. Liverpool prediction.
Brentford vs. Liverpool Odds, Premier League
Brentford vs. Liverpool Prediction
Based on Brentford’s poor record against strong defenses, my Brentford vs. Liverpool prediction is to use the Liverpool Moneyline (-200) in a parlay.
There’s a clear trend with Brentford’s results this season. When they play a bad defense, they tend to perform well and earn results. Otherwise, they tend to struggle.
Brentford have played seven matches against teams allowing under 1.2 non-penalty expected goals per 90 minutes.
They’ve earned points in only one of those matches and have conceded at least twice in every match. Essentially, that means Brentford needs to bag two goals to have a chance at points.
The only problem? They’ve struggled to create meaningful chances against good defenses.
In those seven matches, Brentford have surpassed one expected goal only twice.
Sample only the four games against the four best defenses in that group – Arsenal, Liverpool, Nottingham Forest and Aston Villa – and it becomes 0-for-4 clearing one xG.
When these sides last met, Brentford managed a measly 0.55 xG and 0.78 post-shot xG, per fotmob.com.
Over the last four meetings against Liverpool, Brentford are 0-4 SU with a -1.8 post-shot xGDiff per 90 minutes.
That renders this a strong buy-low spot on Liverpool, who are coming off an undeserved draw at Forest.
The match finished 1-1, but Liverpool carried a 1.99-0.31 xG edge and a 1.95-0.93 post-shot xG edge.
To bring the price down on Liverpool, I’ll pair the Reds with Chelsea on Monday. That drives the price down to -108.
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