- Brentford is a +0.5-goal home underdog against Newcastle.
- The home team has won seven of Brentford's last eight EPL matches.
- My Brentford vs. Newcastle prediction is a Same Game Parlay.
Brentford look to continue their strong home record with a Saturday meeting against Newcastle United.
Thomas Frank’s side suffered a 3-1 thrashing at Aston Villa in the midweek, extending their road winless run to seven matches. However, Brentford are 6-1-0 (W-D-L) at home this year.
Newcastle captured a point in a thrilling 3-3 result against Liverpool at St. James’ Park on Wednesday. Entering Saturday, the Magpies have picked up results in four of the last five.
Check out the Premier League odds and my Brentford vs. Newcastle prediction.
Brentford vs. Newcastle Odds, Premier League
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Newcastle | -0.5 (+125) | 2.5 (-185) | +135 |
| Brentford | +0.5 (-175) | 2.5 (+130) | +180 |
| Draw | +260 |
Brentford vs. Newcastle Prediction
Based on the strength of both attacks and Newcastle’s weak road defensive record, my Brentford vs. Newcastle prediction is a SGP: BTTS + Over 2.5 + 1H Over 0.5 (-115).
This is effectively Both Teams to Score & Over 2.5 Goals. However, I need the third leg to drive the price down from -145 to -115.
This season, Brentford has seen all first halves bar one see at least one goal, including every match at the GTech Community Stadium.
As far as the first two legs, Newcastle have shown a penchant for high-scoring matches as road favorites around this number.
Although trips to Bournemouth and Nottingham Forest saw this market cash only once, there were chances galore in both games.
The Bournemouth trip finished 1-1, but the match saw four combined expected goals: 1.7 for Bournemouth, 2.3 for Newcastle.
Newcastle also created 2.6 post-shot xG for that match, while the Cherries created 1.1, per fbref.com.
Then came the match at Forest. Newcastle won 3-1 as road favorites with a 1.6-0.6 edge on xG and a 2.3-0.9 edge on post-shot xG.
Plus, the Magpies surrendered 1.7 post-shot xG in their last trip to Brentford. The good news? They created 3.7 xG on their way to a 4-2 win.
Dating back to the beginning of last season, Brentford has failed to score only three times at home. However, they’ve also kept only three clean sheets over that span.
This game also matches a historically profitable system suggesting over 2.5 goals will hit.
Since 2012, matches featuring a home underdog with a total of 2.5 goals are 68% to the over, assuming two factors:
- The visiting team’s average number of goals falls between 1.2 and 2.1
- The visiting team’s last match cleared the pregame total by at least 1.5 goals
When the home team lost their last match, over 2.5 goals is 43-15 (74%), including 23-5 when the home team lost by multiple goals.
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