- Brentford is a -0.5-goal home favorite against Nottingham Forest.
- The home team has won nine of Brentford's last 10 EPL matches.
- My Brentford vs. Nottingham Forest prediction is a Same Game Parlay.
After another weak road performance, Brentford return to the GTech Community Stadium to face Nottingham Forest.
The Bees fell 2-1 at Chelsea on Matchday 16, extending their road winless run to eight matches. In good news for Brentford, they’re unbeaten at home this year.
Nottingham Forest captured a 2-1 come-from-behind win over Aston Villa on Matchday 16. That leaves Forest fourth in the Premier League table with three wins in their last four games.
Check out the Premier League odds and my Brentford vs. Nottingham Forest prediction.
Brentford vs. Nottingham Forest Odds, Premier League
Brentford vs. Nottingham Forest Prediction
Based on Brentford’s penchant for playing high-scoring matches at home, my Brentford vs. Nottingham Forest prediction is a SGP: Both Teams to Score & Over 2.5 Goals (-110).
Brentford home matches usually prove extremely eventful. Through their first eight matches at the GTech, matches are averaging 3.63 expected goals per 90 minutes.
Those matches play even more eventful by post-shot expected goals. Based on those metrics, Brentford home matches are averaging 4.15 combined psxG, per fbref.com.
Both teams to score has cashed in every Brentford home match this season with this SGP hitting in seven of those eight matches.
While Forest owns one of the league’s best defenses, their recent road form leaves a touch to be desired.
In their last match against Manchester United, Forest surrendered 1.6 expected goals.
What leaves me encouraged about this market is the Forest attack.
Nuno Espirito Santo’s side has already played five matches against the league’s six worst defenses by non-penalty expected goals.
They’ve scored at least twice in a majority of those five matches while amassing 1.82 expected goals per 90 minutes.
The Forest attack also gets a Brentford defense playing on short rest after a Wednesday League Cup match.
History also likes this spot for over 2.5 goals.
Over the last two seasons, matches featuring a total of 2.5 goals, a home team off a loss and a road team averaging between 1.3 and 2.5 goals are 50-18 to the over.
When those matches feature a home favorite: 19-7 to over 2.5 goals.
Pair that data with Brentford’s home BTTS trends and I’ll back this SGP at a short price.
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