Brentford vs. Wolves Prediction, Odds: EPL Betting

min read
Brentford's Bryan Mbeumo runs into position during the English Premier League soccer match between Brentford and Crystal Palace, at the Gtech Community Stadium in London, Sunday, Aug. 18, 2024.
(AP Photo/Dave Shopland)
Nick Hennion @nickhennion Oct 04, 2024, 10:10 AM
  • Brentford is a -0.5-goal favorite against Wolves.
  • Brentford won the last meeting 2-0 and is 2-1-0 (W-D-L) at home this season.
  • I predict Brentford will earn all three points on Saturday.

Brentford will look for their third win in four home matches to start the year with a Saturday meeting against Wolves.ย 

The Bees took the lead inside the first minute against West Ham last weekend. However, West Hamโ€™s second-half tally resigned the hosts to a point.ย 

Wolvesโ€™ struggles to start the season continued on Matchday 4. They fell 2-1 as home underdogs to Liverpool and currently sit 20th in the league table.ย 

Hereโ€™s a look at the Premier League odds and my Brentford vs. Wolves prediction.ย 

Premier League Odds: Brentford vs. Wolves

  • Brentford Moneyline: +105
  • Wolves Moneyline: +240
  • Draw Moneyline: +260
  • Over/Under: 2.5 Goals (-140/+100)
  • Both Teams to Score: Yes (-150), No (+105)

Premier League Betting: Brentford vs. Wolves Prediction

My Brentford vs. Wolves prediction is the Brentford Moneyline (-105).ย 

The last time these teams met, Brentford thoroughly dominated as road underdogs. Without key attacker Bryan Mbeumo, they blitzed Wolves 2-0 and 1.95-1.05 on expected goals.ย 

This season, the Bees have started strong at home.ย 

The match was even against West Ham, a team I power rate miles ahead of Wolves. Against Crystal Palace and Southampton, they recorded a +1.95 post-shot xGDiff per 90.ย 

Even if you attribute Wolvesโ€™ early struggles to the schedule, their performance at Nottingham Forest concerned me.ย 

The match finished 1-1, but Forest carried a 1.7-0.6 edge on post-shot expected goals over Wolves, per fbref.com.ย 

Plus, Brentford matches a historically profitable system in this match.ย 

Since 2012, teams priced between -205 and +325 in August-October that played their previous game at home are 58.2% SU, including 62.1% as favorites, assuming two factors:

  • The opponentโ€™s previous game margin is between -2 and +0
  • The previous head-to-head result fell between +0 and +2
  • The opponent closed as an underdog in their previous game

Based on those factors, I believe Brentford is cheap at -105. Back them on the moneyline to earn their third win in four at the GTech Community Stadium.ย 

Brentford Record, Last 5 Matches

  • Sept. 28 vs. West Ham: 1-1, D
  • Sept. 21 at Tottenham: 1-3, L
  • Sept. 17 vs. Leyton Orient: 3-1, W (EFL Cup)
  • Sept. 14 at Manchester City: 1-2, L
  • Aug. 31 vs. Southampton: 3-1, W

Wolves Record, Last 5 Matches

  • Sept. 28 vs. Liverpool: 1-2, L
  • Sept. 21 at Aston Villa: 1-3, L
  • Sept. 18 at Brighton: 2-3, L (EFL Cup)
  • Sept. 15 vs. Newcastle United: 1-2, L
  • Aug. 31 at Nottingham Forest: 1-1, D

Premier League Betting at BetMGM

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About the Author

Nick Hennion

Read More @nickhennion

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.