- Brentford is a -0.5-goal favorite against Wolves.
- Brentford won the last meeting 2-0 and is 2-1-0 (W-D-L) at home this season.
- I predict Brentford will earn all three points on Saturday.
Brentford will look for their third win in four home matches to start the year with a Saturday meeting against Wolves.
The Bees took the lead inside the first minute against West Ham last weekend. However, West Ham’s second-half tally resigned the hosts to a point.
Wolves’ struggles to start the season continued on Matchday 4. They fell 2-1 as home underdogs to Liverpool and currently sit 20th in the league table.
Here’s a look at the Premier League odds and my Brentford vs. Wolves prediction.
Premier League Odds: Brentford vs. Wolves
- Brentford Moneyline: +105
- Wolves Moneyline: +240
- Draw Moneyline: +260
- Over/Under: 2.5 Goals (-140/+100)
- Both Teams to Score: Yes (-150), No (+105)
Premier League Betting: Brentford vs. Wolves Prediction
My Brentford vs. Wolves prediction is the Brentford Moneyline (-105).
The last time these teams met, Brentford thoroughly dominated as road underdogs. Without key attacker Bryan Mbeumo, they blitzed Wolves 2-0 and 1.95-1.05 on expected goals.
This season, the Bees have started strong at home.
The match was even against West Ham, a team I power rate miles ahead of Wolves. Against Crystal Palace and Southampton, they recorded a +1.95 post-shot xGDiff per 90.
Even if you attribute Wolves’ early struggles to the schedule, their performance at Nottingham Forest concerned me.
The match finished 1-1, but Forest carried a 1.7-0.6 edge on post-shot expected goals over Wolves, per fbref.com.
Plus, Brentford matches a historically profitable system in this match.
Since 2012, teams priced between -205 and +325 in August-October that played their previous game at home are 58.2% SU, including 62.1% as favorites, assuming two factors:
- The opponent’s previous game margin is between -2 and +0
- The previous head-to-head result fell between +0 and +2
- The opponent closed as an underdog in their previous game
Based on those factors, I believe Brentford is cheap at -105. Back them on the moneyline to earn their third win in four at the GTech Community Stadium.
Brentford Record, Last 5 Matches
- Sept. 28 vs. West Ham: 1-1, D
- Sept. 21 at Tottenham: 1-3, L
- Sept. 17 vs. Leyton Orient: 3-1, W (EFL Cup)
- Sept. 14 at Manchester City: 1-2, L
- Aug. 31 vs. Southampton: 3-1, W
Wolves Record, Last 5 Matches
- Sept. 28 vs. Liverpool: 1-2, L
- Sept. 21 at Aston Villa: 1-3, L
- Sept. 18 at Brighton: 2-3, L (EFL Cup)
- Sept. 15 vs. Newcastle United: 1-2, L
- Aug. 31 at Nottingham Forest: 1-1, D
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