Brighton & Hove Albion vs. Burnley Prediction, Odds & Best Bet Today – EPL, Dec. 9

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Brighton's Pascal Gross celebrates at full time as his team win 2-0 in the Europa League Group B soccer match between Brighton and Hove Albion and Ajax at the Amex stadium in Brighton, England, Thursday, Oct. 26, 2023.
(Frank Augstein/AP Photo)
Nick Hennion @nickhennion Dec 08, 2023, 6:52 PM
  • Brighton & Hove Albion is a -1.5 goal home favorite vs. Burnley.
  • The Seagulls earned a 2-1 home win against Brentford on Wednesday.
  • Burnley lost 1-0 to Wolves on Tuesday and currently sit 19th in the table.

Before Saturday’s English Premier League match, I’m set to provide a Brighton vs. Burnley prediction. 

When these teams played in the midweek, they captured different results. 

As home favorites against Brentford, Brighton captured a 2-1 win in which their offense shone through. Conversely, Burnley traveled to Wolves and lost 1-0. 

Here’s how the Premier League odds shape up for Saturday’s encounter at the American Express Stadium and my best bet for the match. 

Brighton vs. Burnley Betting Odds

  • Brighton & Hove Albion to Win: -210
  • Burnley to Win: +550
  • Brighton vs. Burnley Draw: +350
  • The Brighton vs. Burnley Over/Under is 2.5 Goals

Brighton vs. Burnley Prediction

Based on recent trends, the prediction for Brighton vs. Burnley is Brighton 1H Moneyline (-110)

My prediction is based on up-to-date player injuries for both teams, expected goal trends and recent player performances.


The Seagulls have produced some fluky results recently but remain solid at winning the opening 45 minutes. 

A 1-1 halftime scoreline in the midweek against Brentford looks concerning. However, Brentford’s only goal came via a penalty. 

Outside of that penalty kick, the visitors created only 0.04 xG, per fotmob.com. 

In Brighton’s last three home matches – Brentford, Sheffield United, and Fulham – they’re 2-0-1 (W-L-D) in the first half with a +0.68 non-penalty expected goal differential. 

For the season, manager Roberto De Zerbi’s side is 4-2-2 (W-L-D) in the first half. However, their two defeats came to West Ham and Liverpool, sides miles better than Burnley. 

Finally, a bit of betting calculus goes into this pick. 

Since the beginning of last season, home teams playing two straight home matches are 66.7% straight up. 

If you expect Brighton to follow that trend and win the game outright, Burnley are in trouble in the first half. 

In five road losses this season, manager Vincent Kompany’s side is 0-4-1 (W-L-D) in the first half. 

Take the Seagulls for the first 45 minutes as a result.

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About the Author

Nick Hennion

Read More @nickhennion

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.