- Brighton earned a point in both head-to-head meetings last season.
- Liverpool has earned all three points in one of the last five vs. the Seagulls.
- Oddsmakers are expecting a high-scoring affair.
Liverpool will attempt to end their porous run against Brighton on Sunday, and I’m here to provide a Premier League prediction.
Both sides will operate on short rest after playing midweek Europa League fixtures. Liverpool earned a 2-0 home result, while Brighton drew 2-2 against Marseille.
In terms of their Premier League record, Liverpool sits on 16 points, while Brighton are two spots behind in the table on 15 points.
Here’s how the soccer odds shape up for Sunday’s encounter as well as my best bet for the encounter.
Brighton & Hove Albion vs. Liverpool Odds
- Three-Way Moneyline: Brighton & Hove Albion (+210), Tie (+300), Liverpool (+105)
- Over/Under 3.5 Goals (-125/-110)
- Both Teams to Score – “Yes”/“No” (-300/+200)
Brighton & Hove Albion vs. Liverpool Betting Prediction
Brighton & Hove Albion Goal-Line (+0.5, -135)
How Liverpool is a road favorite in this spot is a complete mystery to me.
Although it’s difficult to quantify Liverpool’s true road record – they’ve had men sent off against both Newcastle United and Tottenham – they lost the expected goals battle at Chelsea.
Given I rate Brighton as a better team than Chelsea, it’s my opinion the former is a live home underdog.
In their toughest home fixture this season – Matchday 4 against Newcastle United – the Seagulls produced a 3-1 win, earning a 1.3-1.2 win on expected goals and the post-shot expected goals battle 1.74 to 0.4, per fotmob.com.
Plus, dating back to the beginning of the 2021-22 season, Brighton has played markedly better at home.
Over that span, they own a +0.56 expected goal differential per 90 minutes, according to fbref.com. Just last season, Brighton earned a point in 14 of 19 home matches and posted a +0.95 expected goal differential per 90 minutes,
Manager Roberto De Zerbi’s side has also owned Liverpool over the last few head-to-head meetings.
In the last three games – two EPL fixtures, one FA Cup meeting – Brighton is 2-1-0 (W-D-L) with a +0.44 expected goal differential per 90 minutes.
From a Liverpool standpoint, they earned all three points only six times away from home last season.
They’ll also operate without Diogo Jota and Curtis Jones after red cards against Tottenham.
With midfielder Thiago also out, I’m not sure how Liverpool’s defense holds up and does enough to earn all three points.
Take the Seagulls so long as +0.5 goal remains available at -140 or better.
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