- Brighton is +15000 to win the Premier League in 2024-25.
- Brighton fell five spots from 2022-23 last season but ran unlucky based on underlying metrics.
- Why bettors should expect improvement from the Seagulls in 2024.
After a sixth-place finish in 2022-23 and a spot in the Europa League, Brighton saw major regression in 2024.
The Seagulls fell to 11th in the table and saw their expected goal differential per 90 minutes fall by 0.57 goals. From March onwards, Brighton earned only two wins in 12 matches.
As a result, they sacked manager Roberto De Zerbi and hired Fabian Hurzeler from German side St. Pauli.
Here’s a look at the EPL odds, Brighton odds and my betting predictions for Brighton’s campaign.
Brighton Futures Odds
- League Winner: +15000
- Top-4 Finish: +1400
- Relegation Odds: +1600
- Top Goalscorer: Joao Pedro (+5000), Evan Ferguson (+10000)
Brighton Notable Permanent Additions
- Yankuba Minteh, Midfielder (Newcastle United)
Brighton Prediction, 2024-25 Premier League Season
I predict Brighton will improve their points output this season and challenge for a top-six spot in the 2024.
So much of Brighton’s issues in 2023 can be attributed to two factors: fixture congestion and loads of injuries.
In 2022, Brighton played 46 matches across three competitions. Last year, they played 50 matches over four competitions.
The lack of days between games informed the injuries for Brighton, who had 41 separate injuries, 21 total players injured and 1,727 combined days lost to injury.
Those outputs rank T-3rd, T-2nd and fourth across the Premier League.
Still, Brighton produced a decent campaign and actually ran unlucky based on their underlying metrics.
The Seagulls finished with a -7 goal differential compared to a +1.4 expected goal differential.
But what really stands out about Brighton is their bad luck both in goalkeeping and from opposing goalkeepers.
Brighton recorded a +11.7 post-shot expected goal differential, the sixth-best mark in the Premier League.
However, their goalkeepers allowed 8.9 goals over expected (third-worst) while opposing keepers saved 12.8 goals over expected (most).
For context, Brighton’s 12.8 goals under psxG is the most by five goals since metric tracking began in 2017-18.
If Brighton’s goalkeeping can just prove average in 2024, Brighton can ride the heels of their quality attack, which sat third and seventh in psxG the last two seasons.
As a result, Brighton are a buy team for me in 2024, even with a new manager.
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