- Brighton is a +0.5-goal underdog against Chelsea.
- The Blues earned a 3-2 home win against Brighton in the reverse fixture.
- Why the market is overrating one side on Wednesday.
As they seek a positive end to the season, Brighton welcome Chelsea to the Amex Stadium on Wednesday.
Both teams enter this game in good form. The Seagulls captured a point away from home at Newcastle over the weekend, their second straight result.
Meanwhile, Chelsea have won three straight Premier League fixtures and are unbeaten in their last four in the league.
Here’s a look at the EPL odds and my prediction for Wednesday’s match.
EPL Odds – Brighton vs. Chelsea
- Brighton Moneyline: +210
- Chelsea Moneyline: +105
- Draw Moneyline: +290
- Over/Under: 3.5 Goals (-110/-130)
Premier League Prediction – Brighton vs. Chelsea
Brighton Spread (+0.5, -135)
Stepping in front of Chelsea is definitely nerve-wracking, but this is a great sell-high spot on the Blues.
History says it’s wise to fade teams off a narrow win despite their defense.
Since the 2012-13 season, teams off a one-goal win that allowed between two and four goals are 79-149 SU in their next contest.
Even if you eliminate all underdogs from consideration, bettors will find the remaining favorites are only 70-69 SU in the subsequent contest.
Fading Chelsea in that spot this season has proved particularly profitable.
Manager Mauricio Pochettino’s side has played four matches this season immediately following a one-goal win, while allowing at least two goals.
They’ve captured all three points only once in the four subsequent matches, including a draw and a loss when they’re on the road.
Conversely, Brighton have excelled this season at picking up points in front of their home support.
For all of their struggles this season, Brighton have dropped all three points only three times at home, with two of those losses coming against Man City and Arsenal.
The last time manager Roberto de Zerbi’s side featured at home, they completely dominated proceedings against Aston Villa in a 1-0 win.
For that match, Brighton created 2.5 xG and six big scoring chances, per fotmob.com.
Plus, Saturday’s win against Nottingham Forest marked only the sixth time in 18 road matches Chelsea captured all three points on the road.
For those reasons, take the Seagulls to extend their unbeaten run to three matches on Wednesday.
Brighton Form
May 11 at Newcastle United: 1-1, D
May 5 vs. Aston Villa: 1-0, W
April 28 at Bournemouth: 0-3, L
April 25 vs. Manchester City: 0-4, L
April 13 at Burnley: 1-1, D
Chelsea Form
May 11 at Nottingham Forest: 3-2, W
May 5 vs. West Ham: 5-0, W
May 2 vs. Tottenham: 2-0, W
April 27 at Aston Villa: 2-2, D
April 23 at Arsenal: 0-5, L
Upcoming EPL Match Schedule
| Home | Away | Date | Time (ET) | Location |
| Brentford | Brighton | Apr. 19 | 10 a.m. | GTech Community Stadium |
| Crystal Palace | Bournemouth | Apr. 19 | 10 a.m. | Selhurst Park |
| Everton | Manchester City | Apr. 19 | 10 a.m. | Goodison Park |
| West Ham United | Southampton | Apr. 19 | 10 a.m. | London Stadium |
| Aston Villa | Newcastle United | Apr. 19 | 12:30 p.m. | Villa Park |
| Fulham | Chelsea | Apr. 20 | 9 a.m. | Craven Cottage |
| Ipswich Town | Arsenal | Apr. 20 | 9 a.m. | Portman Road |
| Manchester United | Wolves | Apr. 20 | 9 a.m. | Old Trafford |
| Leicester City | Liverpool | Apr. 20 | 11:30 a.m. | King Power Stadium |
| Tottenham | Nottingham Forest | Apr. 21 | 3 p.m. | Tottenham Hotspur Stadium |
EPL Standings
| Team | Record (Wins-Draws-Losses) | Points | Goal Differential |
| Liverpool | 23-7-2 | 76 | 43 |
| Arsenal | 17-12-3 | 63 | 30 |
| Newcastle United | 18-5-9 | 59 | 21 |
| Nottingham Forest | 17-6-9 | 57 | 13 |
| Manchester City | 16-7-9 | 55 | 20 |
| Chelsea | 15-9-8 | 54 | 17 |
| Aston Villa | 15-9-8 | 54 | 3 |
| Bournemouth | 13-9-10 | 48 | 12 |
| Fulham | 13-9-10 | 48 | 4 |
| Brighton | 12-13-7 | 48 | 2 |
| Brentford | 12-7-13 | 43 | 4 |
| Crystal Palace | 11-10-11 | 43 | -4 |
| Everton | 8-14-10 | 38 | -4 |
| Manchester United | 10-8-14 | 38 | -7 |
| Tottenham | 11-4-17 | 37 | 11 |
| Wolves | 10-5-17 | 35 | -14 |
| West Ham | 9-8-15 | 35 | -18 |
| Ipswich Town | 4-9-19 | 21 | -34 |
| Leicester City | 4-6-22 | 18 | -45 |
| Southampton | 2-4-26 | 10 | -54 |
EPL ATS Records
| Team | ATS Record | ATS% | Home ATS Record | Home ATS% | Road ATS Record | Road ATS% |
| Arsenal | 11-15-6 | 43.8% | 4-8-4 | 37.5% | 7-7-2 | 50.0% |
| Aston Villa | 14-17-1 | 45.3% | 6-9-1 | 40.6% | 8-8-0 | 50.0% |
| Bournemouth | 18-13-1 | 57.8% | 8-8-0 | 50.0% | 10-5-1 | 65.6% |
| Brentford | 19-11-2 | 62.5% | 9-7-0 | 56.3% | 10-4-2 | 68.8% |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 17-14-1 | 54.7% | 7-9-0 | 43.8% | 10-5-1 | 65.6% |
| Chelsea | 11-19-2 | 37.5% | 6-9-1 | 40.6% | 5-10-1 | 34.4% |
| Crystal Palace | 17-12-3 | 57.8% | 7-6-3 | 53.1% | 10-6-0 | 62.5% |
| Everton | 17-10-5 | 60.9% | 8-6-2 | 56.3% | 9-4-3 | 65.6% |
| Fulham | 18-11-3 | 60.9% | 8-8-0 | 50.0% | 9-4-3 | 65.6% |
| Ipswich Town | 13-17-2 | 43.8% | 4-12-0 | 25.0% | 9-5-2 | 62.5% |
| Leicester City | 14-17-1 | 45.3% | 5-11-0 | 31.3% | 9-6-1 | 59.4% |
| Liverpool | 15-15-2 | 50.0% | 6-8-2 | 43.8% | 9-7-0 | 56.3% |
| Manchester City | 10-22-0 | 31.3% | 5-11-0 | 31.3% | 5-11-0 | 31.3% |
| Manchester United | 13-15-4 | 46.9% | 7-7-2 | 50.0% | 6-8-2 | 43.8% |
| Newcastle United | 19-12-1 | 60.9% | 11-5-0 | 68.8% | 8-7-1 | 53.1% |
| Nottingham Forest | 20-12-0 | 62.5% | 10-6-0 | 62.5% | 10-6-0 | 62.5% |
| Southampton | 11-18-3 | 39.1% | 3-12-1 | 21.9% | 8-6-2 | 56.3% |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 12-19-1 | 39.1% | 6-9-1 | 40.6% | 6-10-0 | 37.5% |
| West Ham United | 17-14-1 | 54.7% | 6-9-1 | 40.6% | 11-5-0 | 68.8% |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 16-13-3 | 54.7% | 7-7-2 | 50.0% | 9-6-1 | 59.4% |
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