- Brighton is a -0.5-goal home favorite against Crystal Palace.
- Brighton has scored at least one goal in each of its last 11 EPL matches.
- My Brighton vs Crystal Palace prediction is the Brighton Moneyline.
Looking to end a three-match winless run, Brighton returns to the Amex for a league fixture against Crystal Palace.
Brighton blew a 2-0 lead at Leicester City on Matchday 15, their third straight failure against a promoted side. Currently, Fabian Huerzler’s side sits seventh in the league table.
Palace captured an unlikely home point as home dogs to Manchester City on Matchday 15. That point vaulted Oliver Glasner’s side to 17th in the table, four points clear of the drop.
Check out the Premier League odds and my Brighton vs. Crystal Palace prediction.
Brighton vs. Crystal Palace Odds, Premier League
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Crystal Palace | +0.5 (-110) | 2.5 (-145) | +290 |
| Brighton | -0.5 (-130) | 2.5 (+105) | -120 |
| Draw | +280 |
Brighton vs. Crystal Palace Prediction
Based on Brighton’s regression candidacy and Palace’s lucky results away from home, my Brighton vs. Crystal Palace prediction is the Brighton Moneyline (-120).
There are two ways to look at Brighton.
There’s the “glass is half empty” view. Of their seven matches as a favorite this season, they’ve won only twice.
Then there’s the “glass if half full” approach. Of Brighton’s seven matches as a favorite, they’ve yet to lose outright (W2-D5-L0).
But I think I’ve uncovered the answer to Brighton’s troubles.
When they have all of Kaoru Mitoma, Joao Pedro, Lewis Dunk and Jan Paul van Hecke, the Seagulls excel.
Huerzler’s side has featured all four in the Starting XI three times this year as a market favorite.
In those three matches, Brighton owns a +5.5 post-shot expected goal differential compared to a +4 actual goal differential.
Included in that sample is a 2-2 draw against Leicester, who captured a point despite recording a -1.5 post-shot xGDiff, per fotmob.com.
In each of those three matches, Brighton won the post-shot xG battle by at least a goal.
Those metrics render this a great buy-low spot on Brighton against an overperforming Palace team.
Away from home, Glasner’s side owns a -2 goal differential compared to a -2.7 expected goal differential and a -2.7 post-shot xGDiff.
However, remove just the match against Wolves, and it becomes a -2 goal differential compared to a -3.6 xGDiff and a -3.9 post-shot xGDiff.
Against a Brighton side ripe for results to turn, I’ll back a full-strength Seagulls side at a short price at home.
