- Brighton is a 0.5-goal home underdog against Man City.
- Manchester City has won 16 of its last 17 EPL night matches following a loss.
- My Brighton vs. Man City prediction is the Man City Moneyline.
Pep Guardiola’s Manchester City travels to Brighton on Saturday, hoping to avoid a fourth straight defeat in all competitions.
The title holders lost to Tottenham in the League Cup, Bournemouth in the league and Sporting CP in the Champions League. Still, City is only two points off the title pace.
Despite taking a 1-0 lead against Liverpool, Brighton fell 2-1 on the road last weekend. That marks two straight winless in the league for the Seagulls.
Check out the Premier League odds and my Brighton vs. Man City prediction.
Premier League Odds: Brighton vs. Man City
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Man City | -0.5 (-145) | 3.5 (+125) | -135 |
| Brighton | +0.5 (+100) | 3.5 (-175) | +320 |
| Draw | +300 |
Premier League Betting: Brighton vs. Man City Prediction
Based on Brighton’s poor defensive record and Man City’s record off a loss, my Brighton vs. Man City prediction is the Manchester City Moneyline (-135).
This is a slam dunk wrapped inside a home run bowed off with an 80-yard touchdown pass spot on Manchester City. It’s also my favorite bet of the Premier League season so far.
City have won 15 of its last 16 matches immediately following a loss. The only failure? On the road against Arsenal, a side miles better than Brighton.
Under Guardiola, Manchester City is 28-3 SU immediately following a loss. When the opponent failed to win its last game: 16-0 SU.
I concede that Rodri’s absence doesn’t help Manchester City. But the good news is they’re starting to get healthy in the attack.
Kevin De Bruyne should return to the Starting XI for this match along with both Jeremy Doku and Ilkay Gundogan. That’s going to exploit a bad Brighton defense.
In matches against Arsenal and Liverpool, Brighton have yet to keep either under two post-shot expected goals. Arsenal even accomplished it while playing down a man!
Additionally, Brighton conceded 3.4 non-penalty xG to Chelsea. Fabian Huerzler also has to operate without (potentially) eight first-team players.
Plus, Brighton is a major negative regression candidate. Huerzler’s unit owns a +3 goal differential in the league compared to a -2.1 expected goal differential.
The last time these teams met, City dominated Brighton. The match finished 4-0 in City’s favor, with Guardiola’s side winning the post-shot xG battle 1.9-0.4, per fotmob.com.
City also matches a historically profitable system in this spot.
Since 2012, favorites off a loss by one or three goals as favorites are 50-15 SU, assuming two factors:
- The favorite’s game number falls between 6 and 22
- The closing moneyline is between -195 and +100
Even when those teams fall between -140 and +100: 29-9 SU.
As a result, I’ll take Man City to end its losing run on Saturday.
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