- Brighton is a -0.5-goal favorite against Manchester United.
- Brighton earned a 3-1 road win in the last meeting against Manchester United.
- The case for a high-scoring contest on Sunday at the Amex Stadium.
To close out their Premier League campaign, Brighton & Hove Albion welcome Manchester United to the Amex Stadium on Sunday.
These sides enter Sunday’s game in opposite form. Brighton lost 2-1 in the midweek against Chelsea, while United captured a 3-2 home win over Newcastle United.
The last time these sides met, Brighton captured a 3-1 road win at Old Trafford. That marks four straight league wins for Brighton over the Red Devils.
Here’s a look at the EPL odds and my prediction for Sunday’s match.
EPL Odds – Brighton vs. Manchester United
- Brighton Moneyline: +105
- Manchester United Moneyline: +210
- Draw Moneyline: +310
- Over/Under: 3.5 Goals (-135/-105)
Premier League Prediction – Brighton vs. Manchester United
Total Over 3.5 Goals (-135)
Historically, this spot has proved profitable to bet an over.
Since the 2012-13 season, home favorites off a loss in March, April or May are 107-65-10 to the over (62.2%) when the total closes between 2.5 and 4.
Plus, I’m using a bit of betting calculus to inform this play.
Over the same timeframe, teams off a one-goal win that conceded between two and four goals are only 80-149 SU in the next game, suggesting Brighton will do no worse than a point.
Recently, United’s road efforts have proved quite chaotic, and they’ve generally failed to win thanks to a bad defensive performance.
Since March, United have played five road matches in which they’ve failed to win outright. Four of five cleared 3.5 goals with United allowing 1.5 xG in all five.
Even if they return Lisandro Martinez to the lineup, Brighton have looked decent offensively at home.
They created 1.25 xG against Chelsea on Wednesday and notched 1.6 non-penalty xG against Villa in their previous home match.
Plus, the Seagulls created 1.7 xG and 2.5 psxG in the reverse fixture at Old Trafford.
United is worse defensively on the road this season — they’ve allowed 1.44 xG per 90 at home compared to 1.98 xG per 90 on the road — so Brighton’s offense should perform well.
Effectively, this bet comes down to whether Manchester United’s attack holds up their end of the bargain.
The good news? They should feature all of Bruno Fernandes, Rasmus Hojlund and Marcus Rashford in the Starting XI on Sunday.
In 16 matches where those three players all started, United created 1.36 expected goals per 90 minutes.
But, in the six matches within that 16-game sample where United didn’t earn an outright win, four have cleared 3.5 goals.
As a result, bet on goals Sunday on the South Coast.
Brighton Form
May 15 vs. Chelsea: 1-2, L
May 11 at Newcastle United: 1-1, D
May 5 vs. Aston Villa: 1-0, W
April 28 at Bournemouth: 0-3, L
April 25 vs. Manchester City: 0-4, L
Manchester United Form
May 15 vs. Newcastle United: 3-2, W
May 12 vs. Arsenal: 0-1, L
May 6 at Crystal Palace: 0-4, L
April 27 vs. Burnley: 1-1, D
April 24 vs. Sheffield United: 4-2, W
Upcoming EPL Match Schedule
| Home | Away | Date | Time (ET) | Location |
| Newcastle United | Crystal Palace | Apr. 16 | 2:30 p.m. | St. James' Park |
| Brentford | Brighton | Apr. 19 | 10 a.m. | GTech Community Stadium |
| Crystal Palace | Bournemouth | Apr. 19 | 10 a.m. | Selhurst Park |
| Everton | Manchester City | Apr. 19 | 10 a.m. | Goodison Park |
| West Ham United | Southampton | Apr. 19 | 10 a.m. | London Stadium |
| Aston Villa | Newcastle United | Apr. 19 | 12:30 p.m. | Villa Park |
| Fulham | Chelsea | Apr. 20 | 9 a.m. | Craven Cottage |
| Ipswich Town | Arsenal | Apr. 20 | 9 a.m. | Portman Road |
| Manchester United | Wolves | Apr. 20 | 9 a.m. | Old Trafford |
| Leicester City | Liverpool | Apr. 20 | 11:30 a.m. | King Power Stadium |
| Tottenham | Nottingham Forest | Apr. 21 | 3 p.m. | Tottenham Hotspur Stadium |
EPL Standings
| Team | Record (Wins-Draws-Losses) | Points | Goal Differential |
| Liverpool | 23-7-2 | 76 | 43 |
| Arsenal | 17-12-3 | 63 | 30 |
| Nottingham Forest | 17-6-9 | 57 | 13 |
| Newcastle United | 17-5-9 | 56 | 16 |
| Manchester City | 16-7-9 | 55 | 20 |
| Chelsea | 15-9-8 | 54 | 17 |
| Aston Villa | 15-9-8 | 54 | 3 |
| Bournemouth | 13-9-10 | 48 | 12 |
| Fulham | 13-9-10 | 48 | 4 |
| Brighton | 12-13-7 | 48 | 2 |
| Brentford | 12-7-13 | 43 | 4 |
| Crystal Palace | 11-10-10 | 43 | 1 |
| Everton | 8-14-10 | 38 | -4 |
| Manchester United | 10-8-14 | 38 | -7 |
| Tottenham | 11-4-17 | 37 | 11 |
| Wolves | 10-5-17 | 35 | -14 |
| West Ham | 9-8-15 | 35 | -18 |
| Ipswich Town | 4-9-19 | 21 | -34 |
| Leicester City | 4-6-22 | 18 | -45 |
| Southampton | 2-4-26 | 10 | -54 |
EPL ATS Records
| Team | ATS Record | ATS% | Home ATS Record | Home ATS% | Road ATS Record | Road ATS% |
| Arsenal | 11-15-6 | 43.8% | 4-8-4 | 37.5% | 7-7-2 | 50.0% |
| Aston Villa | 14-17-1 | 45.3% | 6-9-1 | 40.6% | 8-8-0 | 50.0% |
| Bournemouth | 18-13-1 | 57.8% | 8-8-0 | 50.0% | 10-5-1 | 65.6% |
| Brentford | 19-11-2 | 62.5% | 9-7-0 | 56.3% | 10-4-2 | 68.8% |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 17-14-1 | 54.7% | 7-9-0 | 43.8% | 10-5-1 | 65.6% |
| Chelsea | 11-19-2 | 37.5% | 6-9-1 | 40.6% | 5-10-1 | 34.4% |
| Crystal Palace | 17-11-3 | 59.7% | 7-6-3 | 53.1% | 10-5-0 | 66.7% |
| Everton | 17-10-5 | 60.9% | 8-6-2 | 56.3% | 9-4-3 | 65.6% |
| Fulham | 18-11-3 | 60.9% | 8-8-0 | 50.0% | 9-4-3 | 65.6% |
| Ipswich Town | 13-17-2 | 43.8% | 4-12-0 | 25.0% | 9-5-2 | 62.5% |
| Leicester City | 14-17-1 | 45.3% | 5-11-0 | 31.3% | 9-6-1 | 59.4% |
| Liverpool | 15-15-2 | 50.0% | 6-8-2 | 43.8% | 9-7-0 | 56.3% |
| Manchester City | 10-22-0 | 31.3% | 5-11-0 | 31.3% | 5-11-0 | 31.3% |
| Manchester United | 13-15-4 | 46.9% | 7-7-2 | 50.0% | 6-8-2 | 43.8% |
| Newcastle United | 18-12-1 | 59.7% | 10-5-0 | 66.7% | 8-7-1 | 53.1% |
| Nottingham Forest | 20-12-0 | 62.5% | 10-6-0 | 62.5% | 10-6-0 | 62.5% |
| Southampton | 11-18-3 | 39.1% | 3-12-1 | 21.9% | 8-6-2 | 56.3% |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 12-19-1 | 39.1% | 6-9-1 | 40.6% | 6-10-0 | 37.5% |
| West Ham United | 17-14-1 | 54.7% | 6-9-1 | 40.6% | 11-5-0 | 68.8% |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 16-13-3 | 54.7% | 7-7-2 | 50.0% | 9-6-1 | 59.4% |
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