Crystal Palace vs. Aston Villa Prediction, Expert Pick | EPL – BetMGM

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Aston Villa's Douglas Luiz, centre, celebrates after scoring his side's second goal during the English Premier League soccer match between Aston Villa and Nottingham Forest at the Villa Park stadium in Birmingham, England, Saturday, Feb. 24, 2024.
(Rui Vieira/AP Photo)
Nick Hennion @nickhennion May 15, 2024, 2:46 PM
  • Crystal Palace is a -0.5-goal favorite against Aston Villa.
  • Villa have already earned Champions League qualification and beat Palace 3-1 at home.
  • Why bettors should expect the Palace offense to run rampant.

For Sunday’s climactic fixture at Selhurst Park, red-hot Crystal Palace will host Aston Villa. 

This match features little motivation for both teams. Palace is safely in the mid-table without any danger of relegation, while Villa has secured Champions League football next season. 

The last time these sides met, Palace blew a 1-0 advantage in the second half against Villa, who notched two of three goals in stoppage time. 

Here’s a look at the EPL odds and my prediction for Sunday’s match. 

EPL Odds – Crystal Palace vs. Aston Villa

  • Crystal Palace Moneyline: -115
  • Aston Villa Moneyline: +250
  • Draw Moneyline: +310
  • Over/Under: 3.5 Goals (+100/-135)

Premier League Prediction – Crystal Palace vs. Aston Villa

Parlay: Crystal Palace Over 1.5 Goals & Liverpool Moneyline (-126)

Without any motivation for Sunday’s match, Villa’s defense will likely falter against a Palace attack on the upswing. 

Since restoring both Eberechi Eze and Michael Olise back into the Starting XI, the Palace attack has looked quite good, particularly at home. 

In their last two matches with both in the Starting XI, Palace has generated 2.05 expected goals per 90 minutes and cleared this number in both games. 

Across the entire season, the Eagles have played only four home matches against bottom-half defenses with that duo available. 

They’ve cleared 1.5 goals in all four contests. In fact, they’ve cleared 2.5 goals on their own in all four matches while creating 2.08 post-shot expected goals, per 

I’m not as bullish on their attack getting to three goals for the second straight match, given three of those four opponents sit behind Villa in non-penalty expected goals per 90 minutes. 

However, over 1.5 goals isn’t out of the question, especially when you factor in their performance at Villa Park. 

Without Olise in the lineup, Palace managed to create 1.2 expected goals and three big scoring chances against Villa. 

Plus, if even Villa had something motivating them for this match, their road defensive record is worrisome. 

Even if you throw out recent road matches against Brighton, Arsenal and Manchester City, bettors will find they allowed at least 1.4 expected goals in their four previous road fixtures. 

The opponents? West Ham, Luton Town, Sheffield United and Fulham. 

That’s not exactly a murderer’s row of offensive opposition, as all four sides rank 13th or worse in expected goals per 90 minutes. 

Although Palace’s season-long metrics leave a lot to be desired — 17th in both xG and npxG per 90 — their recent form is quite encouraging.  

Pair them with Liverpool’s moneyline to drive down the price from -185. 

Crystal Palace Form 

May 11 vs. Wolves: 3-1, W

May 6 vs. Manchester United: 4-0, W

April 27 at Fulham: 1-1, D

April 24 vs. Newcastle United: 2-0, W

April 21 vs. West Ham United: 5-2, W

Aston Villa Form

May 13 vs. Liverpool: 3-3, D

May 9 at Olympiacos: 0-2, L (Europa Conference League)

May 5 at Brighton: 0-1, L

May 2 vs. Olympiacos: 2-4, L (Europa Conference League)

April 27 vs. Chelsea: 2-2, D

Upcoming EPL Match Schedule

HomeAwayDateTime (ET)Location
ArsenalEvertonMay. 1911:00 AMEmirates Stadium
Man CityWest Ham UnitedMay. 1911:00 AMEtihad Stadium
BrentfordNewcastle UnitedMay. 1911:00 AMGTech Community Stadium
Brighton & Hove AlbionManchester UnitedMay. 1911:00 AMAmex Stadium
BurnleyNottingham ForestMay. 1911:00 AMTurf Moor
ChelseaBournemouthMay. 1911:00 AMStamford Bridge
Crystal PalaceAston VillaMay. 1911:00 AMSelhurst Park
LiverpoolWolvesMay. 1911:00 AMAnfield
Luton TownFulhamMay. 1911:00 AMKenilworth Road
Sheffield UnitedTottenhamMay. 1911:00 AMBramall Lane

EPL Standings

TeamRecord (Wins-Draws-Losses)PointsGoal DifferentialNotes
Manchester City27-7-38860---
Arsenal FC27-5-58661---
Liverpool FC23-10-47943---
Aston Villa FC20-8-96820---
Tottenham Hotspur19-6-126310---
Chelsea FC17-9-116013---
Newcastle United17-6-145721---
Manchester United17-6-1457-3---
West Ham United14-10-1352-12---
Brighton & Hove Albion12-12-1248-4---
Crystal Palace12-10-1546-6---
Fulham FC12-8-1744-8---
Everton13-9-1540-108 Point Deduction
Nottingham Forest8-9-2029-194 Point Deduction
Luton Town6-8-2326-31---
Burnley FC5-9-2324-36---
Sheffield United3-7-2716-66---

EPL ATS Records

TeamATS RecordATS Win Pct.Home ATS RecordHome ATS Win Pct.Road ATS RecordRoad ATS Win Pct.
Aston Villa19-17-1.52712-7.6327-10-1.417
Brighton & Hove Albion15-20-2.4328-9-1.4727-11-1.395
Crystal Palace20-17.5419-9.50011-8.579
Luton Town22-14-1.60813-5.7229-9-1.500
Manchester City19-18.5148-10.44411-8.579
Manchester United17-20.4599-10.4748-10.444
Newcastle United18-19.48612-7.6326-12.333
Nottingham Forest15-20-2.4325-13-1.28910-7-1.583
Sheffield United19-18.5149-9.50010-9.526
Tottenham Hotspur18-19.4869-10.4749-9.500
West Ham United19-18.51412-7.6327-11.389
Wolverhampton Wanderers18-19.4869-10.4749-9.500

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About the Author

Nick Hennion

Read More @nickhennion

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.