Brentford vs. Burnley Prediction, Odds, Pick | Premier League Match Preview

min read
Brentford's Ivan Toney during the English Premier League soccer match between Manchester City and Brentford at Etihad stadium in Manchester, England, Tuesday, Feb. 20, 2024.
(Rui Vieira/AP Photo)
Nick Hennion @nickhennion Mar 15, 2024, 2:14 PM
  • Brentford is a -0.5-goal favorite against Burnley.
  • Brentford earned a 3-0 win over Burnley in the previous head-to-head meeting.
  • How to take advantage of the low market perception of Brentford’s attack.

Before Saturday’s English Premier League kickoff from Turf Moor, I’m here to provide a Burnley vs. Brentford prediction. 

Burnley, who lost the previous meeting 3-0 at the GTech Community Stadium, is coming off a 2-2 draw at West Ham United. 

As for Brentford, they played well as road underdogs at Arsenal last week but ultimately fell 2-1. 

Here’s a look at the EPL odds and my best bet for Saturday’s match. 

EPL Betting Odds – Brentford vs. Burnley

  • Brentford Moneyline: +110
  • Burnley Moneyline: +220
  • Draw Moneyline: +270
  • Over/Under: 2.5 Goals (-150/+110)

EPL Prediction – Brentford vs. Burnley

Brentford Moneyline (+110) | Brentford Team Total Over 1.5 (-110)

A long time has passed since Brentford faced one of the league’s worst defenses. 

That’s why I love this price on their team total, as it’s an opportunity to fade the market perception of this team. 

Only once since returning Ivan Toney from suspension have Brentford faced a team allowing north of 1.5 non-penalty expected goals per 90 minutes. 

In that game – a trip to Wolves – they created 1.9 expected goals on their way to scoring twice. 

Since December, Brentford have played only four games against a bad defense. 

Slightly worrisome is that they created only 0.6 expected goals at Sheffield United,  but they played with neither Toney nor attacking midfielder Matthias Jensen. 

In the three other matches, the Bees generated at least 1.9 expected goals in all three. 

Without adjusting for strength of schedule, Brentford has created 1.27 expected goals per 90 minutes and 1.34 post shot expected goals with Toney back from suspension, per 

In those nine matches, they cleared this number five times. 

Now they face a Burnley side that allows 1.62 non-penalty expected goals per 90 minutes and surrendered 3.1 expected goals to Brentford in the reverse fixture. 

As for the Brentford moneyline, there’s a strong correlation between these markets. 

In games this season where Brentford scores at least twice, they’re 7-3-2 (W-D-L). 

Conversely, Burnley has earned points in only two games this season in which they’ve allowed more than two goals. 

Lastly, since the 2012-13 EPL season, closing favorites between +140 and -145 off a loss that won the previous meeting are 135-110 SU, including 52-36 away from home. 

Those teams have won 15 of 21 qualifying games this season, including four of six away from home. 

Back the Bees at +100 or better on the three-way moneyline and -125 or better on the team total. 

Brentford Form 

March 9 at Arsenal: 1-2, L

March 2 vs. Chelsea: 2-2, D

Feb. 26 at West Ham United: 2-4, L

Feb. 20 at Manchester City: 0-1, L

Feb. 17 vs. Liverpool: 1-4, L

Burnley Form

March 10 at West Ham United: 2-2, D

March 3 vs. Burnley: 0-2, L

Feb. 24 at Crystal Palace: 0-3, L

Feb. 17 vs. Arsenal: 0-5, L

Feb. 10 at Liverpool: 1-3, L

EPL Match Schedule This Weekend

HomeAwayDateTime (ET)Location
ArsenalEvertonMay. 1911:00 AMEmirates Stadium
Man CityWest Ham UnitedMay. 1911:00 AMEtihad Stadium
BrentfordNewcastle UnitedMay. 1911:00 AMGTech Community Stadium
Brighton & Hove AlbionManchester UnitedMay. 1911:00 AMAmex Stadium
BurnleyNottingham ForestMay. 1911:00 AMTurf Moor
ChelseaBournemouthMay. 1911:00 AMStamford Bridge
Crystal PalaceAston VillaMay. 1911:00 AMSelhurst Park
LiverpoolWolvesMay. 1911:00 AMAnfield
Luton TownFulhamMay. 1911:00 AMKenilworth Road
Sheffield UnitedTottenhamMay. 1911:00 AMBramall Lane

EPL Standings

TeamRecord (Wins-Draws-Losses)PointsGoal DifferentialNotes
Manchester City27-7-38860---
Arsenal FC27-5-58661---
Liverpool FC23-10-47943---
Aston Villa FC20-8-96820---
Tottenham Hotspur19-6-126310---
Chelsea FC17-9-116013---
Newcastle United17-6-145721---
Manchester United17-6-1457-3---
West Ham United14-10-1352-12---
Brighton & Hove Albion12-12-1248-4---
Crystal Palace12-10-1546-6---
Fulham FC12-8-1744-8---
Everton13-9-1540-108 Point Deduction
Nottingham Forest8-9-2029-194 Point Deduction
Luton Town6-8-2326-31---
Burnley FC5-9-2324-36---
Sheffield United3-7-2716-66---

EPL ATS Records

TeamATS RecordATS Win Pct.Home ATS RecordHome ATS Win Pct.Road ATS RecordRoad ATS Win Pct.
Aston Villa19-17-1.52712-7.6327-10-1.417
Brighton & Hove Albion15-20-2.4328-9-1.4727-11-1.395
Crystal Palace20-17.5419-9.50011-8.579
Luton Town22-14-1.60813-5.7229-9-1.500
Manchester City19-18.5148-10.44411-8.579
Manchester United17-20.4599-10.4748-10.444
Newcastle United18-19.48612-7.6326-12.333
Nottingham Forest15-20-2.4325-13-1.28910-7-1.583
Sheffield United19-18.5149-9.50010-9.526
Tottenham Hotspur18-19.4869-10.4749-9.500
West Ham United19-18.51412-7.6327-11.389
Wolverhampton Wanderers18-19.4869-10.4749-9.500

Soccer Odds at BetMGM

Whether you’re a first-time bettor, casual fan, or longtime diehard, there are soccer odds for everyone at BetMGM.

Throughout the year, you can view online sports betting opportunities for the Premier League, World Cup, Champions League, and more events around the world.

If you don’t have a sportsbook account, register today with BetMGM’s welcome bonus. And check back for the best sportsbook promotions each day of the year.

BetMGM First Bet Offer $1,500
About the Author

Nick Hennion

Read More @nickhennion

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.