Brentford vs. Burnley Prediction, Odds, Pick | Premier League Match Preview

min read
Brentford's Ivan Toney during the English Premier League soccer match between Manchester City and Brentford at Etihad stadium in Manchester, England, Tuesday, Feb. 20, 2024.
(Rui Vieira/AP Photo)
Nick Hennion @nickhennion Mar 15, 2024, 2:14 PM
  • Brentford is a -0.5-goal favorite against Burnley.
  • Brentford earned a 3-0 win over Burnley in the previous head-to-head meeting.
  • How to take advantage of the low market perception of Brentford’s attack.

Before Saturday’s English Premier League kickoff from Turf Moor, I’m here to provide a Burnley vs. Brentford prediction. 

Burnley, who lost the previous meeting 3-0 at the GTech Community Stadium, is coming off a 2-2 draw at West Ham United. 

As for Brentford, they played well as road underdogs at Arsenal last week but ultimately fell 2-1. 

Here’s a look at the EPL odds and my best bet for Saturday’s match. 

EPL Betting Odds – Brentford vs. Burnley

  • Brentford Moneyline: +110
  • Burnley Moneyline: +220
  • Draw Moneyline: +270
  • Over/Under: 2.5 Goals (-150/+110)

EPL Prediction – Brentford vs. Burnley

Brentford Moneyline (+110) | Brentford Team Total Over 1.5 (-110)

A long time has passed since Brentford faced one of the league’s worst defenses. 

That’s why I love this price on their team total, as it’s an opportunity to fade the market perception of this team. 

Only once since returning Ivan Toney from suspension have Brentford faced a team allowing north of 1.5 non-penalty expected goals per 90 minutes. 

In that game – a trip to Wolves – they created 1.9 expected goals on their way to scoring twice. 

Since December, Brentford have played only four games against a bad defense. 

Slightly worrisome is that they created only 0.6 expected goals at Sheffield United,  but they played with neither Toney nor attacking midfielder Matthias Jensen. 

In the three other matches, the Bees generated at least 1.9 expected goals in all three. 

Without adjusting for strength of schedule, Brentford has created 1.27 expected goals per 90 minutes and 1.34 post shot expected goals with Toney back from suspension, per fbref.com. 

In those nine matches, they cleared this number five times. 

Now they face a Burnley side that allows 1.62 non-penalty expected goals per 90 minutes and surrendered 3.1 expected goals to Brentford in the reverse fixture. 

As for the Brentford moneyline, there’s a strong correlation between these markets. 

In games this season where Brentford scores at least twice, they’re 7-3-2 (W-D-L). 

Conversely, Burnley has earned points in only two games this season in which they’ve allowed more than two goals. 

Lastly, since the 2012-13 EPL season, closing favorites between +140 and -145 off a loss that won the previous meeting are 135-110 SU, including 52-36 away from home. 

Those teams have won 15 of 21 qualifying games this season, including four of six away from home. 

Back the Bees at +100 or better on the three-way moneyline and -125 or better on the team total. 

Brentford Form 

March 9 at Arsenal: 1-2, L

March 2 vs. Chelsea: 2-2, D

Feb. 26 at West Ham United: 2-4, L

Feb. 20 at Manchester City: 0-1, L

Feb. 17 vs. Liverpool: 1-4, L

Burnley Form

March 10 at West Ham United: 2-2, D

March 3 vs. Burnley: 0-2, L

Feb. 24 at Crystal Palace: 0-3, L

Feb. 17 vs. Arsenal: 0-5, L

Feb. 10 at Liverpool: 1-3, L

EPL Match Schedule This Weekend

HomeAwayDateTime (ET)Location
Newcastle UnitedTottenhamApr. 137:30 AMSt. James' Park
BrentfordSheffield UnitedApr. 1310:00 AMGTech Community Stadium
BurnleyBrightonApr. 1310:00 AMTurf Moor
Man CityLuton TownApr. 1310:00 AMEtihad Stadium
Nottingham ForestWolvesApr. 1310:00 AMThe City Ground
BournemouthManchester UnitedApr. 1312:30 PMVitality Stadium
LiverpoolCrystal PalaceApr. 149:00 AMAnfield
West Ham UnitedFulhamApr. 149:00 AMLondon Stadium
ArsenalAston VillaApr. 1411:30 PMEmirates Stadium
ChelseaEvertonApr. 153:00 PMStamford Bridge

EPL Standings

TeamRecord (Wins-Draws-Losses)PointsGoal DifferentialNotes
Manchester City22-7-37344---
Arsenal FC22-5-57149---
Liverpool FC21-8-37141---
Aston Villa FC19-6-86319---
Tottenham Hotspur18-6-86016---
Newcastle United15-5-125017---
Manchester United15-5-1250-1---
West Ham United13-9-1148-6---
Chelsea FC13-8-10478---
Brighton & Hove Albion11-11-10442---
Wolves12-7-1343-5---
Fulham FC12-6-1542-2---
Bournemouth11-9-1242-10---
Crystal Palace8-9-1533-17---
Brentford8-8-1732-11---
Everton9-8-1527-158 Point Deduction
Nottingham Forest7-9-1726-164 Point Deduction
Luton Town6-7-2025-24---
Burnley FC4-8-2120-35---
Sheffield United3-7-2216-54---

EPL ATS Records

TeamATS RecordATS Win Pct.Home ATS RecordHome ATS Win Pct.Road ATS RecordRoad ATS Win Pct.
Arsenal18-13.5818-7.53310-6.625
Aston Villa16-15-1.51610-6.6256-9-1.406
Bournemouth18-12-2.5949-6-2.5889-6.600
Brentford12-19-2.3946-10-1.3826-9-1.406
Brighton & Hove Albion15-16-1.4848-7.5337-9-1.441
Burnley13-19-1.4094-12-1.2659-7.563
Chelsea15-16.48410-6.6255-10.333
Crystal Palace15-17.4696-9.4009-8.529
Everton14-18.4387-8.4677-10.412
Fulham17-15-1.53010-5-1.6567-10.412
Liverpool16-16.5009-8.5297-8.467
Luton Town21-11-1.65212-4.7509-7-1.559
Manchester City14-18.4387-10.4127-8.467
Manchester United12-19-1.3916-9.4006-10-1.382
Newcastle United16-16.50011-6.6475-10.333
Nottingham Forest14-17-2.4555-11-1.3249-6-1.594
Sheffield United18-14.5639-7.5639-7.563
Tottenham Hotspur18-14.5639-7.5639-7.563
West Ham United17-16.51510-7.5887-9.438
Wolverhampton Wanderers16-15-1.5168-7.5339-7-1.559

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About the Author

Nick Hennion

Read More @nickhennion

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.