- Burnley is a +0.5-goal underdog against Nottingham Forest.
- These sides played to a 1-1 draw at the City Ground in the reverse fixture.
- Why bettors should expect positive regression from Forest.
For their final home fixture in the Premier League, Burnley welcomes Nottingham Forest to Turf Moor.
The Clarets have already received their fate and will play in England’s second tier next season. As for Forest, they’re all but safe — only a six-goal loss paired with a Luton six-goal win would see them relegated.
The last time these sides played, Burnley did well and earned a point at the City Ground.
Here’s a look at the EPL odds and my prediction for Sunday’s match.
EPL Odds – Burnley vs. Nottingham Forest
- Burnley Moneyline: +175
- Nottingham Forest Moneyline: +135
- Draw Moneyline: +270
- Over/Under: 3.5 Goals (+120/-165)
Premier League Prediction – Burnley vs. Nottingham Forest
Nottingham Forest Moneyline (+135) | Nottingham Forest Team Total Over 1.5 (-120) | Nottingham Forest 1H Over 0.5 (-135)
Forest has experienced such bad luck this season, and I rate this as the spot where they positively regress.
Although most of that misfortune has come on the defensive end — 66 goals against 52.7 expected — their offense should shine at Turf Moor.
Since appointing Nuno Espirito Santo, Forest has played 11 games against teams 11th or worse in non-penalty expected goal differential per 90 minutes.
They’ve failed to score a first half goal only once in those 11 games and have notched a first-half goal in nine straight contests.
In terms of the team total, Forest have cleared this number in all but two of those 11 matches while creating 1.91 expected goals per 90 minutes.
The only two teams they failed to clear 1.5 goals were at Luton Town and at Tottenham where they combined for two goals off 3.5 expected, per fbref.com.
Given Burnley have nothing other than pride motivating them for Sunday’s match, expect continued struggles from their defense, which sits 18th in npxGA per 90 minutes.
In terms of the Forest moneyline, there’s a sizable gap between these sides in their underlying metrics.
For the entire season, Forest are at a -0.1 xGDiff per 90 minutes while Burnley have posted a -0.79 expected goal differential per 90 minutes.
Plus, Forest have played eight matches against sides 11th or worse in npxGF per 90 minutes under Espirito Santo.
They’ve won four of those matches outright and have dropped all three points only once. Sample only their previous five such matches, and bettors will find they’re 3-2-0 (W-D-L).
Finally, the Forest moneyline matches a historically profitable system.
Since 2012-13, favorites with a 10-game winning percentage under 39% that have scored at least two goals in two straight games are 33-16 SU.
As a result, I’ll back the visitors to earn all three points and guarantee safety.
Burnley Form
May 11 at Tottenham: 1-2, L
May 4 vs. Newcastle: 1-4, L
April 27 at Manchester United: 1-1, D
April 20 at Sheffield United: 4-1, W
April 13 vs. Brighton: 1-1, D
Nottingham Forest Form
May 11 vs. Chelsea: 2-3, L
May 4 at Nottingham Forest: 3-1, W
April 28 vs. Manchester City: 0-2, L
April 21 at Everton: 0-2, L
April 13 vs. Wolves: 2-2, D
Upcoming EPL Match Schedule
| Home | Away | Date | Time (ET) | Location |
| Newcastle United | Manchester City | Sep. 28 | 7:30 a.m. | St. James' Park |
| Arsenal | Leicester City | Sep. 28 | 10 a.m. | Emirates Stadium |
| Brentford | West Ham United | Sep. 28 | 10 a.m. | GTech Community Stadium |
| Chelsea | Brighton & Hove Albion | Sep. 28 | 10 a.m. | Stamford Bridge |
| Everton | Crystal Palace | Sep. 28 | 10 a.m. | Goodison Park |
| Nottingham Forest | Fulham | Sep. 28 | 10 a.m. | The City Ground |
| Wolves | Liverpool | Sep. 28 | 12:30 p.m. | Molineux |
| Ipswich Town | Aston Villa | Sep. 29 | 9 a.m. | Portman Road |
| Manchester United | Tottenham | Sep. 29 | 11:30 a.m. | Old Trafford |
| Bournemouth | Southampton | Sep. 30 | 3 p.m. | Vitality Stadium |
EPL Standings
| Team | Record (Wins-Draws-Losses) | Points | Goal Differential |
| Manchester City | 4-1-0 | 13 | 8 |
| Liverpool | 4-0-1 | 12 | 9 |
| Aston Villa | 4-0-1 | 12 | 3 |
| Arsenal | 3-2-0 | 11 | 5 |
| Chelsea | 3-1-1 | 10 | 6 |
| Newcastle United | 3-1-1 | 10 | 1 |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 2-3-0 | 9 | 4 |
| Nottingham Forest | 2-3-0 | 9 | 2 |
| Fulham | 2-2-1 | 8 | 2 |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 2-1-2 | 7 | 4 |
| Manchester United | 2-1-2 | 7 | 0 |
| Brentford | 2-0-3 | 6 | -2 |
| Bournemouth | 1-2-2 | 5 | -3 |
| West Ham United | 1-1-3 | 4 | -4 |
| Leicester City | 0-3-2 | 3 | -2 |
| Crystal Palace | 0-3-2 | 3 | -3 |
| Ipswich Town | 0-3-2 | 3 | -5 |
| Southampton | 0-1-4 | 1 | -7 |
| Everton | 0-1-4 | 1 | -9 |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 0-1-4 | 1 | -9 |
EPL ATS Records
| Team | ATS Record | ATS Win Pct. | Home ATS Record | Home ATS Win Pct. | Road ATS Record | Road ATS Win Pct. |
| Arsenal | 3-2-0 | .600 | 0-2-0 | .000 | 3-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Aston Villa | 4-1-0 | .800 | 2-1-0 | .667 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Bournemouth | 3-2-0 | .600 | 1-1-0 | .500 | 2-1-0 | .667 |
| Brentford | 3-2-0 | .600 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 | 1-2-0 | .333 |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 3-2-0 | .600 | 1-2-0 | .333 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Chelsea | 3-2-0 | .600 | 0-2-0 | .000 | 3-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Crystal Palace | 2-3-0 | .400 | 1-2-0 | .333 | 1-1-0 | .500 |
| Everton | 1-4-0 | .200 | 0-2-0 | .000 | 1-2-0 | .333 |
| Fulham | 2-3-0 | .400 | 2-1-0 | .667 | 0-2-0 | .000 |
| Ipswich Town | 3-2-0 | .600 | 1-1-0 | .500 | 2-1-0 | .667 |
| Leicester City | 2-3-0 | .400 | 1-2-0 | .333 | 1-1-0 | .500 |
| Liverpool | 4-1-0 | .800 | 2-1-0 | .667 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Manchester City | 3-2-0 | .600 | 1-2-0 | .333 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Manchester United | 2-3-0 | .400 | 1-1-0 | .500 | 1-2-0 | .333 |
| Newcastle United | 2-3-0 | .400 | 1-1-0 | .500 | 1-2-0 | .333 |
| Nottingham Forest | 3-2-0 | .600 | 0-2-0 | .000 | 3-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Southampton | 1-4-0 | .200 | 0-3-0 | .000 | 1-1-0 | .500 |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 2-3-0 | .400 | 2-1-0 | .500 | 0-2-0 | .000 |
| West Ham United | 2-3-0 | .400 | 0-3-0 | .000 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 2-3-0 | .400 | 0-2-0 | .000 | 2-1-0 | .667 |
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