Brighton vs. Manchester United Prediction, Expert Pick | EPL – BetMGM

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Brighton's Joao Pedro celebrates scoring his side's opening goal during the Europa League Group B soccer match between Brighton and Hove Albion and Olympique de Marseille at the Amex stadium in Brighton, England, Thursday, Dec. 14, 2023.
(Ian Walton/AP Photo)
Nick Hennion @nickhennion May 15, 2024, 6:32 PM
  • Brighton is a -0.5-goal favorite against Manchester United.
  • Brighton earned a 3-1 road win in the last meeting against Manchester United.
  • The case for a high-scoring contest on Sunday at the Amex Stadium.

To close out their Premier League campaign, Brighton & Hove Albion welcome Manchester United to the Amex Stadium on Sunday. 

These sides enter Sunday’s game in opposite form. Brighton lost 2-1 in the midweek against Chelsea, while United captured a 3-2 home win over Newcastle United. 

The last time these sides met, Brighton captured a 3-1 road win at Old Trafford. That marks four straight league wins for Brighton over the Red Devils. 

Here’s a look at the EPL odds and my prediction for Sunday’s match. 

EPL Odds – Brighton vs. Manchester United

  • Brighton Moneyline: +105
  • Manchester United Moneyline: +210
  • Draw Moneyline: +310
  • Over/Under: 3.5 Goals (-135/-105)

Premier League Prediction – Brighton vs. Manchester United

Total Over 3.5 Goals (-135) 

Historically, this spot has proved profitable to bet an over. 

Since the 2012-13 season, home favorites off a loss in March, April or May are 107-65-10 to the over (62.2%) when the total closes between 2.5 and 4. 

Plus, I’m using a bit of betting calculus to inform this play. 

Over the same timeframe, teams off a one-goal win that conceded between two and four goals are only 80-149 SU in the next game, suggesting Brighton will do no worse than a point. 

Recently, United’s road efforts have proved quite chaotic, and they’ve generally failed to win thanks to a bad defensive performance. 

Since March, United have played five road matches in which they’ve failed to win outright. Four of five cleared 3.5 goals with United allowing 1.5 xG in all five. 

Even if they return Lisandro Martinez to the lineup, Brighton have looked decent offensively at home. 

They created 1.25 xG against Chelsea on Wednesday and notched 1.6 non-penalty xG against Villa in their previous home match. 

Plus, the Seagulls created 1.7 xG and 2.5 psxG in the reverse fixture at Old Trafford. 

United is worse defensively on the road this season — they’ve allowed 1.44 xG per 90 at home compared to 1.98 xG per 90 on the road — so Brighton’s offense should perform well. 

Effectively, this bet comes down to whether Manchester United’s attack holds up their end of the bargain. 

The good news? They should feature all of Bruno Fernandes, Rasmus Hojlund and Marcus Rashford in the Starting XI on Sunday. 

In 16 matches where those three players all started, United created 1.36 expected goals per 90 minutes. 

But, in the six matches within that 16-game sample where United didn’t earn an outright win, four have cleared 3.5 goals. 

As a result, bet on goals Sunday on the South Coast. 

Brighton Form 

May 15 vs. Chelsea: 1-2, L

May 11 at Newcastle United: 1-1, D

May 5 vs. Aston Villa: 1-0, W

April 28 at Bournemouth: 0-3, L

April 25 vs. Manchester City: 0-4, L

Manchester United Form

May 15 vs. Newcastle United: 3-2, W

May 12 vs. Arsenal: 0-1, L

May 6 at Crystal Palace: 0-4, L

April 27 vs. Burnley: 1-1, D

April 24 vs. Sheffield United: 4-2, W

Upcoming EPL Match Schedule

HomeAwayDateTime (ET)Location
ArsenalEvertonMay. 1911:00 AMEmirates Stadium
Man CityWest Ham UnitedMay. 1911:00 AMEtihad Stadium
BrentfordNewcastle UnitedMay. 1911:00 AMGTech Community Stadium
Brighton & Hove AlbionManchester UnitedMay. 1911:00 AMAmex Stadium
BurnleyNottingham ForestMay. 1911:00 AMTurf Moor
ChelseaBournemouthMay. 1911:00 AMStamford Bridge
Crystal PalaceAston VillaMay. 1911:00 AMSelhurst Park
LiverpoolWolvesMay. 1911:00 AMAnfield
Luton TownFulhamMay. 1911:00 AMKenilworth Road
Sheffield UnitedTottenhamMay. 1911:00 AMBramall Lane

EPL Standings

TeamRecord (Wins-Draws-Losses)PointsGoal DifferentialNotes
Manchester City27-7-38860---
Arsenal FC27-5-58661---
Liverpool FC23-10-47943---
Aston Villa FC20-8-96820---
Tottenham Hotspur19-6-126310---
Chelsea FC17-9-116013---
Newcastle United17-6-145721---
Manchester United17-6-1457-3---
West Ham United14-10-1352-12---
Brighton & Hove Albion12-12-1248-4---
Crystal Palace12-10-1546-6---
Fulham FC12-8-1744-8---
Everton13-9-1540-108 Point Deduction
Nottingham Forest8-9-2029-194 Point Deduction
Luton Town6-8-2326-31---
Burnley FC5-9-2324-36---
Sheffield United3-7-2716-66---

EPL ATS Records

TeamATS RecordATS Win Pct.Home ATS RecordHome ATS Win Pct.Road ATS RecordRoad ATS Win Pct.
Aston Villa19-17-1.52712-7.6327-10-1.417
Brighton & Hove Albion15-20-2.4328-9-1.4727-11-1.395
Crystal Palace20-17.5419-9.50011-8.579
Luton Town22-14-1.60813-5.7229-9-1.500
Manchester City19-18.5148-10.44411-8.579
Manchester United17-20.4599-10.4748-10.444
Newcastle United18-19.48612-7.6326-12.333
Nottingham Forest15-20-2.4325-13-1.28910-7-1.583
Sheffield United19-18.5149-9.50010-9.526
Tottenham Hotspur18-19.4869-10.4749-9.500
West Ham United19-18.51412-7.6327-11.389
Wolverhampton Wanderers18-19.4869-10.4749-9.500

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About the Author

Nick Hennion

Read More @nickhennion

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.