Arsenal vs. Everton Prediction, Expert Pick | EPL – BetMGM

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Arsenal's Bukayo Saka, right, celebrates after scoring his side's first goal during the English Premier League soccer match between Arsenal and Fulham at Emirates stadium in London, Saturday, Aug. 26, 2023.
(Frank Augstein/AP Photo)
Nick Hennion @nickhennion May 16, 2024, 12:00 PM
  • Arsenal is a -2.5-goal favorite against Everton.
  • Arsenal won 1-0 at Goodison Park, and now need a win and help for a shot at the title.
  • Why bettors should expect Everton to finish with a low corner count.

Needing a win and help from West Ham United to win the title, Arsenal welcome Everton to the Emirates Stadium on the final day of the Premier League season. 

Following Manchester City’s midweek win against Tottenham, Arsenal are prohibitive underdogs (+900) to deny City a fourth consecutive title. 

To win the title, they’ll need to beat Everton — a side they dispatched 1-0 earlier this season — and hope City fail to win against West Ham United. 

With that established, here’s a look at the EPL odds and my prediction for Sunday’s match. 

EPL Odds – Arsenal vs. Everton

  • Arsenal Moneyline: -550
  • Everton Moneyline: +1400
  • Draw Moneyline: +675
  • Over/Under: 3.5 Goals (-110/-125)

Premier League Prediction – Arsenal vs. Everton

LEAN Everton Under 1.5 Corners (+130)

Only one side has any motivation for this match: Arsenal.

Accordingly, bettors should expect the hosts to dominate the ball and limit their opponents to a low corner count. 

Earlier this season, Everton traveled to Manchester City and accomplished virtually nothing offensively. 

Manager Sean Dyche’s side notched only 0.3 expected goals on five shots, one shot on target and amassed exactly zero corners. 

Further, although they managed 52 attacking third touches, Everton converted only five of those into penalty area touches. 

Additionally, Arsenal generally don’t allow many corner kicks at home. Sample their first 18 home matches, and bettors will find they’ve allowed only 2.78 corners per game. 

That’s good for second-best in the league, behind only Manchester City (2.5). Plus, the last time these sides played, Everton notched a single corner at home. 

Expand the sample to include three Everton road matches against sides that allow under 3.5 corners per game at home, and bettors will find they’ve notched only seven total corners. 

Without adjusting for opponent quality, Everton generally see a dropoff in corner kicks away from home. To date, they average 0.06 fewer corners on the road. 

Arsenal have shown they can limit corner attempts when they dominate the ball. 

In 16 games this season where Arsenal controlled more than 60% possession, opponents average only 2.81 corners per game. 

Expand the sample to consider games where Arsenal have more than 51% possession, and bettors will find they’ve held 14 of 27 under 2.5 corners. 

In their last four games where they’ve controlled a majority of possession, three teams have finished under 1.5 corners. 

As a result, take the under on Everton in a meaningless match for the Toffees. 

Arsenal Form 

May 12 at Manchester United: 1-0, W

May 4 vs. Bournemouth: 3-0, W

April 28 at Tottenham: 3-2, W

April 23 vs. Chelsea: 5-0, W

April 20 at Wolves: 2-0, W

Everton Form

May 11 vs. Sheffield United: 1-0, W

May 3 at Luton Town: 1-1, D

April 27 vs. Brentford: 1-0, W

April 24 vs. Liverpool: 2-0, W

April 21 vs. Nottingham Forest: 2-0, W

Upcoming EPL Match Schedule

HomeAwayDateTime (ET)Location
ArsenalEvertonMay. 1911:00 AMEmirates Stadium
Man CityWest Ham UnitedMay. 1911:00 AMEtihad Stadium
BrentfordNewcastle UnitedMay. 1911:00 AMGTech Community Stadium
Brighton & Hove AlbionManchester UnitedMay. 1911:00 AMAmex Stadium
BurnleyNottingham ForestMay. 1911:00 AMTurf Moor
ChelseaBournemouthMay. 1911:00 AMStamford Bridge
Crystal PalaceAston VillaMay. 1911:00 AMSelhurst Park
LiverpoolWolvesMay. 1911:00 AMAnfield
Luton TownFulhamMay. 1911:00 AMKenilworth Road
Sheffield UnitedTottenhamMay. 1911:00 AMBramall Lane

EPL Standings

TeamRecord (Wins-Draws-Losses)PointsGoal DifferentialNotes
Manchester City27-7-38860---
Arsenal FC27-5-58661---
Liverpool FC23-10-47943---
Aston Villa FC20-8-96820---
Tottenham Hotspur19-6-126310---
Chelsea FC17-9-116013---
Newcastle United17-6-145721---
Manchester United17-6-1457-3---
West Ham United14-10-1352-12---
Brighton & Hove Albion12-12-1248-4---
Crystal Palace12-10-1546-6---
Fulham FC12-8-1744-8---
Everton13-9-1540-108 Point Deduction
Nottingham Forest8-9-2029-194 Point Deduction
Luton Town6-8-2326-31---
Burnley FC5-9-2324-36---
Sheffield United3-7-2716-66---

EPL ATS Records

TeamATS RecordATS Win Pct.Home ATS RecordHome ATS Win Pct.Road ATS RecordRoad ATS Win Pct.
Aston Villa19-17-1.52712-7.6327-10-1.417
Brighton & Hove Albion15-20-2.4328-9-1.4727-11-1.395
Crystal Palace20-17.5419-9.50011-8.579
Luton Town22-14-1.60813-5.7229-9-1.500
Manchester City19-18.5148-10.44411-8.579
Manchester United17-20.4599-10.4748-10.444
Newcastle United18-19.48612-7.6326-12.333
Nottingham Forest15-20-2.4325-13-1.28910-7-1.583
Sheffield United19-18.5149-9.50010-9.526
Tottenham Hotspur18-19.4869-10.4749-9.500
West Ham United19-18.51412-7.6327-11.389
Wolverhampton Wanderers18-19.4869-10.4749-9.500

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About the Author

Nick Hennion

Read More @nickhennion

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.