- Chelsea is a -0.5-goal home favorite against Bournemouth.
- Chelsea has won each of its last five EPL night matches following a draw.
- My Chelsea vs. Bournemouth prediction is the Chelsea moneyline.
Seeking an end to a four-match winless run, Chelsea welcome Bournemouth to Stamford Bridge on Tuesday.
The Blues dropped points in a 1-1 draw against Crystal Palace on Matchday 20. Despite their poor run of form, Enzo Maresca’s side still sits fourth in the league table.
Bournemouth’s ascent up the table continued with a 1-0 home win over Everton on Matchday 20. That marks eight matches unbeaten for the Cherries, currently seventh in the table.
Check out the Premier League odds and my Chelsea vs. Bournemouth prediction.
Chelsea vs. Bournemouth Odds, Premier League
Chelsea vs. Bournemouth Prediction
Based on Bournemouth’s attacking injuries and Chelsea’s potential regression at home, my Chelsea vs. Bournemouth prediction is the Chelsea Moneyline (-155).
Upon first glance, it’s a steep price to lay against a team unbeaten in eight matches.
However, Bournemouth lost both Evanilson and Enes Unal to long-term injuries this week and face a trip to London on short rest.
That should create problems against Chelsea, who is a positive regression candidate based on their performances at Stamford Bridge.
The Blues own a +4 goal differential compared to a +6.7 expected goal differential at home this season, per fbref.com.
Although Bournemouth’s road metrics are encouraging, the lack of quality competition must be noted.
Tuesday’s trip to Chelsea marks only the third time this season Bournemouth has played a side featuring a top-five home expected goal differential.
In the two previous matches – at Liverpool and Aston Villa – the Cherries posted a -1.2 xGDiff per 90 minutes and a -2.2 post-shot xGDiff per 90 minutes.
History also likes this spot to back Chelsea as a mid-range favorite.
Since 2012, favorites between -182 and -122 in games 20-37 are 95-33, assuming the opponent’s previous game margin is +1 or -2.
When the opponent closed a favorite in their last game: 44-9 SU, including 32-8 when the opponent is off a one-goal victory.
As a result, this marks the time to sell high on Bournemouth and take Chelsea to earn all three points.
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