- Chelsea is a -1.5-goal home favorite against Brentford.
- Brentford has lost each of its last six EPL night matches following a win.
- My Chelsea vs. Brentford prediction focuses on the Brentford team total.
Seeking a fifth straight league win, Enzo Maresca’s Chelsea hosts Thomas Frank’s Brentford in a London Derby.
The Blues came from behind to capture a 4-3 win over Tottenham last weekend. That gives Chelsea four wins in a row in which they’ve scored multiple goals.
Brentford also captured all three points on Matchday 15 in a 4-2 home win against Newcastle. Now, they’ll look to earn only their second result away from home to begin the season.
Check out the Premier League odds and my Chelsea vs. Brentford prediction.
Chelsea vs. Brentford Odds, Premier League
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brentford | +1.5 (-115) | 3.5 (-115) | +650 |
| Chelsea | -1.5 (-120) | 3.5 (-115) | -295 |
| Draw | +475 |
Chelsea vs. Brentford Prediction
Based on Chelsea’s extensive travel on short rest and Brentford’s strong starts in the first half, my Chelsea vs. Brentford prediction is Brentford 1H Over 0.5 (+150).
The Bees are properly terrible away from home, so I can’t get involved from a spread perspective.
That said, where they’ve previously excelled is catching opponents out early in the game.
Sample road games against Aston Villa, Tottenham, Manchester City, Manchester United and Liverpool, and bettors will find Brentford cashed this prop in three of five.
On Sunday, they get a Chelsea side with two key absentees in defense playing on short rest.
Both Wesley Fofana and Reece James are out for Sunday’s match. That leaves Maresca without (arguably) his two best defenders.
Even if there’s rotation from Thursday’s Europa Conference League fixture, it’s still a nightmare spot for Chelsea.
They travel to Kazakhstan on Thursday and return to London early Friday morning, a cumulative journey of 16 hours.
Surely that will have a lingering effect against a Brentford attack on full rest.
Even if Brentford do rank dead last in road expected goals for, they’re catching a Chelsea team recording poor defensive metrics.
The Blues have kept only three clean sheets this season and have allowed 1.8 post-shot xG in two straight matches, including a trip to Southampton.
Although Brentford scored all four goals against Chelsea in the second half last season, the fact they succeeded offensively leaves me encouraged to back them.
With both teams to score heavily juiced to -170, I’ll back the visitors to score and continue their strong record in the first half at plus money.
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