- Chelsea is a 0.5-goal home favorite against Newcastle United.
- Chelsea has won 10 of its last 11 EPL home matches against Newcastle United.
- I predict Chelsea’s moneyline is the best bet for Sunday’s match.
Two European hopefuls meet on Sunday at Stamford Bridge with Chelsea hosting Newcastle United.
Both teams suffered defeats on Matchday 9. The Blues fell 2-1 on the road against Liverpool, while Newcastle, as a home favorite, dropped all three points against Brighton.
Chelsea, as it stands, sits sixth in the league table, while Newcastle sits ninth, five points from a Champions League spot.
Check out the Premier League odds and my Chelsea vs. Newcastle United prediction.
Premier League Odds: Chelsea vs. Newcastle United
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Newcastle United | +0.5 (-105) | 3.5 (+110) | +300 |
| Chelsea | -0.5 (-135) | 3.5 (-150 | -125 |
| Draw | +300 |
Premier League Betting: Chelsea vs. Newcastle United Prediction
Based on Chelsea’s strong record against Newcastle last season and Newcastle’s poor road metrics, my Chelsea vs. Newcastle United prediction is the Chelsea Moneyline (-125).
Don’t let the 3-2 scoreline from the most recent meeting fool you: that match was not nearly as close as the scoreline suggested.
Chelsea bested the Magpies 1.6-0.7 on expected goals and recorded a 2.1-0.6 edge on post-shot expected goals, per fotmob.com.
That continued a decided edge for Chelsea against Eddie Howe’s Newcastle at Stamford Bridge.
Across the last three meetings at Chelsea, the Blues own a +2.24 edge on expected goals, winning two of those three matches.
This season under Enzo Maresca, Chelsea has produced strong metrics as a home favorite.
In three such matches, the Blues own a +6.4 expected goal differential and have won all three by at least 1.3 expected goals.
Comparatively, Newcastle is totally worthless for bettors away from home.
Their lone road success came against Wolves on extended rest as +100 road favorites. However, this is a defense that allowed 2.2 xG each to Fulham and Bournemouth.
This also marks the first time this season Newcastle will close a road underdog, rendering it a great sell-high spot on their already terrible road metrics.
Chelsea also matches a historically profitable betting system.
Since 2012, home favorites priced between -235 and -110 against a previous favorite are 59-27 SU (68.6%), assuming two factors:
- The favorite’s margin in the last head-to-head meeting falls between -1 and +1
- The favorite’s previous game margin falls between -5 and -1
Just over the last three seasons, those favorites are 15-2 SU.
Back the Blues to earn all three points on Sunday.
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