- Crystal Palace is a +0.5-goal home underdog against Arsenal.
- Crystal Palace is winless in its last 13 EPL Saturday night home matches.
- My Crystal Palace vs. Arsenal prediction is for Crystal Palace to cover.
A London derby features on Saturday night at Selhurst Park as Crystal Palace welcomes Arsenal.
Oliver Glasner’s side throttled Brighton 3-1 at the Amex on Matchday 16, moving to 16th in the league table. At home, Palace has avoided defeat five times in eight matches.
Arsenal drew 0-0 against Everton on Matchday 16, their second consecutive draw in the league. As it stands, the Gooners sit six points behind Liverpool for the league lead.
Check out the Premier League odds and my Crystal Palace vs. Arsenal prediction.
Crystal Palace vs. Arsenal Odds, Premier League
Crystal Palace vs. Arsenal Prediction
[Writer’s Note: Crystal Palace added Eberechi Eze to the injured list on Friday. If you bet this market, buy out by parlaying the Arsenal Moneyline with Liverpool Over 1.5 Goals].
Based on Crystal Palace’s recent form as underdogs, my Crystal Palace vs. Arsenal prediction is the Crystal Palace Spread (+0.5, +125).
Almost out of nowhere, Glasner’s team has picked up some momentum playing as market underdogs.
Palace has earned points in four straight matches as market underdogs (W1-D3) and three of their last four matches as home underdogs.
While the results are slightly lucky based on post-shot xG, Palace are keeping games close by overall shot quality.
Over those last four games, the Eagles recorded a +2 goal differential compared to a +1.1 expected goal differential and a -0.1 post-shot xGDiff, per fbref.com.
Arsenal has also struggled away from home this season, posting a +0.16 expected goal differential per 90 minutes.
It’s also a solid buy-low spot on Palace off a strong win at Brighton after they lost to Arsenal in a midweek Cup match.
However, that match came away from home for Palace, which also played without a key defensive midfielder and their starting right-wing back.
History also suggests underdogs off a big win tend to avoid defeat.
Since 2012, half-goal underdogs off a win by multiple goals as underdogs are 41-20 ATS (67%), including 21-7 ATS as home dogs.
Back the hosts so long as they remain available at +105 or better against the spread.
