- Crystal Palace is a -0.5-goal favorite against Aston Villa.
- Villa have already earned Champions League qualification and beat Palace 3-1 at home.
- Why bettors should expect the Palace offense to run rampant.
For Sunday’s climactic fixture at Selhurst Park, red-hot Crystal Palace will host Aston Villa.
This match features little motivation for both teams. Palace is safely in the mid-table without any danger of relegation, while Villa has secured Champions League football next season.
The last time these sides met, Palace blew a 1-0 advantage in the second half against Villa, who notched two of three goals in stoppage time.
Here’s a look at the EPL odds and my prediction for Sunday’s match.
EPL Odds – Crystal Palace vs. Aston Villa
- Crystal Palace Moneyline: -115
- Aston Villa Moneyline: +250
- Draw Moneyline: +310
- Over/Under: 3.5 Goals (+100/-135)
Premier League Prediction – Crystal Palace vs. Aston Villa
Parlay: Crystal Palace Over 1.5 Goals & Liverpool Moneyline (-126)
Without any motivation for Sunday’s match, Villa’s defense will likely falter against a Palace attack on the upswing.
Since restoring both Eberechi Eze and Michael Olise back into the Starting XI, the Palace attack has looked quite good, particularly at home.
In their last two matches with both in the Starting XI, Palace has generated 2.05 expected goals per 90 minutes and cleared this number in both games.
Across the entire season, the Eagles have played only four home matches against bottom-half defenses with that duo available.
They’ve cleared 1.5 goals in all four contests. In fact, they’ve cleared 2.5 goals on their own in all four matches while creating 2.08 post-shot expected goals, per fbref.com.
I’m not as bullish on their attack getting to three goals for the second straight match, given three of those four opponents sit behind Villa in non-penalty expected goals per 90 minutes.
However, over 1.5 goals isn’t out of the question, especially when you factor in their performance at Villa Park.
Without Olise in the lineup, Palace managed to create 1.2 expected goals and three big scoring chances against Villa.
Plus, if even Villa had something motivating them for this match, their road defensive record is worrisome.
Even if you throw out recent road matches against Brighton, Arsenal and Manchester City, bettors will find they allowed at least 1.4 expected goals in their four previous road fixtures.
The opponents? West Ham, Luton Town, Sheffield United and Fulham.
That’s not exactly a murderer’s row of offensive opposition, as all four sides rank 13th or worse in expected goals per 90 minutes.
Although Palace’s season-long metrics leave a lot to be desired — 17th in both xG and npxG per 90 — their recent form is quite encouraging.
Pair them with Liverpool’s moneyline to drive down the price from -185.
Crystal Palace Form
May 11 vs. Wolves: 3-1, W
May 6 vs. Manchester United: 4-0, W
April 27 at Fulham: 1-1, D
April 24 vs. Newcastle United: 2-0, W
April 21 vs. West Ham United: 5-2, W
Aston Villa Form
May 13 vs. Liverpool: 3-3, D
May 9 at Olympiacos: 0-2, L (Europa Conference League)
May 5 at Brighton: 0-1, L
May 2 vs. Olympiacos: 2-4, L (Europa Conference League)
April 27 vs. Chelsea: 2-2, D
Upcoming EPL Match Schedule
| Home | Away | Date | Time (ET) | Location |
| Brighton | Chelsea | Feb. 14 | 3 p.m. | Amex Stadium |
| Leicester City | Arsenal | Feb. 15 | 7:30 a.m. | King Power Stadium |
| Aston Villa | Ipswich Town | Feb. 15 | 10 a.m. | Villa Park |
| Fulham | Nottingham Forest | Feb. 15 | 10 a.m. | Craven Cottage |
| Man City | Newcastle United | Feb. 15 | 10 a.m. | Etihad Stadium |
| Southampton | Bournemouth | Feb. 15 | 10 a.m. | St. Mary's Stadium |
| West Ham United | Brentford | Feb. 15 | 10 a.m. | London Stadium |
| Crystal Palace | Everton | Feb. 15 | 12:30 p.m. | Selhurst Park |
| Liverpool | Wolves | Feb. 16 | 9 a.m. | Anfield |
| Tottenham | Manchester United | Feb. 16 | 11:30 a.m. | Tottenham Hotspur Stadium |
EPL Standings
| Team | Record (Wins-Draws-Losses) | Points | Goal Differential |
| Liverpool | 17-5-1 | 56 | 35 |
| Arsenal | 14-8-2 | 50 | 27 |
| Nottingham Forest | 14-5-5 | 47 | 13 |
| Chelsea | 12-7-5 | 43 | 16 |
| Manchester City | 12-5-7 | 41 | 13 |
| Newcastle United | 12-5-7 | 41 | 13 |
| Bournemouth | 11-7-6 | 40 | 13 |
| Aston Villa | 10-7-7 | 37 | -3 |
| Fulham | 9-9-6 | 36 | 4 |
| Brighton | 8-10-6 | 34 | -3 |
| Brentford | 9-4-11 | 31 | 0 |
| Crystal Palace | 7-9-8 | 30 | -2 |
| Manchester United | 8-5-11 | 29 | -6 |
| Tottenham | 8-3-13 | 27 | 11 |
| West Ham United | 7-6-11 | 27 | -17 |
| Everton | 6-8-9 | 26 | -5 |
| Wolves | 5-4-15 | 19 | -18 |
| Leicester City | 3-5-15 | 17 | -28 |
| Ipswich Town | 3-7-14 | 16 | -27 |
| Southampton | 2-3-19 | 9 | -36 |
EPL ATS Records
| Team | ATS Record | ATS% | Home ATS Record | Home ATS% | Road ATS Record | Road ATS% |
| Arsenal | 9-10-5 | 47.9% | 3-6-3 | 37.5% | 6-4-2 | 58.3% |
| Aston Villa | 8-15-1 | 35.4% | 3-8-1 | 29.2% | 5-7-0 | 41.7% |
| Bournemouth | 16-8-0 | 66.7% | 7-5-0 | 58.3% | 9-3-0 | 75.0% |
| Brentford | 14-8-2 | 62.5% | 8-5-0 | 61.5% | 6-3-2 | 63.6% |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 12-11-1 | 52.1% | 4-7-0 | 36.4% | 8-4-1 | 65.4% |
| Chelsea | 9-13-2 | 41.7% | 4-7-1 | 37.5% | 5-6-1 | 45.8% |
| Crystal Palace | 13-8-3 | 60.4% | 4-5-3 | 45.8% | 9-3-0 | 75.0% |
| Everton | 12-9-2 | 56.5% | 6-5-1 | 54.2% | 6-4-1 | 59.1% |
| Fulham | 14-8-2 | 62.5% | 5-7-0 | 41.7% | 8-2-2 | 75.0% |
| Ipswich Town | 10-13-1 | 43.8% | 4-9-0 | 30.8% | 6-4-1 | 59.1% |
| Leicester City | 11-12-1 | 47.9% | 5-7-0 | 41.7% | 6-5-1 | 54.2% |
| Liverpool | 13-9-1 | 58.7% | 5-5-1 | 50.0% | 8-4-0 | 66.7% |
| Manchester City | 7-17-0 | 29.2% | 3-8-0 | 27.3% | 4-9-0 | 30.8% |
| Manchester United | 10-12-2 | 45.8% | 5-7-1 | 42.3% | 5-5-1 | 50.0% |
| Newcastle United | 13-10-1 | 56.3% | 7-5-0 | 58.3% | 6-5-1 | 54.2% |
| Nottingham Forest | 16-8-0 | 66.7% | 7-5-0 | 58.3% | 9-3-0 | 75.0% |
| Southampton | 9-12-3 | 43.8% | 2-8-1 | 22.7% | 7-4-2 | 61.5% |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 9-15-0 | 37.5% | 4-8-0 | 33.3% | 5-7-0 | 41.7% |
| West Ham United | 12-11-1 | 52.1% | 4-7-1 | 37.5% | 8-4-0 | 66.7% |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 10-12-2 | 45.8% | 5-6-1 | 45.8% | 5-6-1 | 45.8% |
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